Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

I'm glad that the referendum will take place. I hope the law will be blocked, but I doubt it. There is quite a lot of support for measures that reduce privacy in the name of combatting terrorism.

Anyway, we still miss a lot of details. The standard tax credit and some child benefits will go up which mainly benefit lower earners btw, and the liberalization of employment termination doesn't go that far imo (it becomes easier to fire people for economic reasons, but the cap on redundancy payments imposed by labour courts also will be raised, and people will become eligible for redundancy payments immediately when they get a job instead of after 2 years in their job).

Anyway for a libertarianish person who doesn't really mind the EU a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition probably is the best realistic option, so I won't complain . I generally back the leaked government measures (including further liberalizing the labour market). Abolishing the referendum and getting rid of the property tax exemption look like bad ideas and the lack of focus on innovation/R&D bothers me but overall I'd be quite happy with this coalition.

Repealing the property tax exemption for people who paid of their mortgage can become an issue. Hans Wiegel (prominent former VVD leader) and some other former politicians already complained about it. Meanwhile some CDA pundits started to complain about Buma's new right-wing course. They criticized Buma for being too harsh on immigrants and following an economic policy that hurts the most vulnerable.

[mvd10]

Pechtold will remain parliamentary leader of D66 instead of joining the cabinet as a minister. Since the coalition has a very small majority (76 vs 74) having strong parliamentary leaders in order to keep rebellious MP's in check is very important. This also could be a sign that he doesn't expect the cabinet to last very long and wants to prepare for new elections for one more time (and then become a minister in his preferred VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition).

[mvd10]

Buma also will remain in parliament as CDA parliamentary leader. I guess Bolkestein will be his role model. During Kok's first cabinet (PvdA-VVD-D66) Bolkestein was VVD leader and despite his party being in government he regularly attacked the government (especially on immigration and integration). This approach made him very popular and there were times when the VVD actually was ahead of the PvdA (they won the 1995 provincial elections and led the early polls for the 1998 elections despite being a junior partner).

[DavidB.]

Always surprised about the relatively large number of issues on which we agree!

I'm glad that the referendum will take place. I hope the law will be blocked, but I doubt it. There is quite a lot of support for measures that reduce privacy in the name of combatting terrorism.

Interested in the inevitable age gap on this issue. Wouldn't be surprised if it were Brexit-like, with older people largely supporting the law and younger ones almost unanimously opposing it. When I shared the petition with my left-leaning fraternity, so many people were interested in signing it...

[TheSaint250]

Why is FvD doing well in the polls?

[Zinneke]

Why is FvD doing well in the polls?

Josse de Voogd did write an article about VNL (and to a lesser extent FvD):

https://www.trouw.nl/democratie/nieuw-rechts-voor-wie-minder-minder-te-ver-gaat~a5b478df/?

(I believe it's behind a paywall though).

On twitter he wrote this:

https://twitter.com/jossedevoogd/status/880786181751005184

For non-Dutch speaking people (do any non-Dutch speaking people read this anymore ?): He writes that his prediction of the FvD electorate was reasonably correct. FvD scored well in wealthy LPF (Fortuyn's party) municipalities. Upmarket populism like he says. The FvD is like a wing of the PVV, but the wing that currently dominates the PVV is the southern Catholic more economically leftist wing (overlaps witht the SP electorate), and the FvD electorate doesn't really feel at ease there. FvD still does quite well in Limburg though.

Read from then on.

I would probably add now the anti-political sentiment that these negotiations provoked.

[DavidB.]

Why is FvD doing well in the polls?

There was space for a "respectable" alternative between CDA/VVD and PVV once the PVV moved rightward, became more simplistic and was clearly less interested in ever being in power again. Wilders is old news and Baudet is very good at catching the attention of the media.

[TheSaint250]

Thanks, guys!

[mvd10]

Yeah, Baudet is extremely good at publicity stunts. To be fair I was sceptical about the chances of a party that positions itself between VVD/CDA and PVV but apparently there is a lot of space.

Anyway, the full coalition agreement has been released, and the opposition parties have been very critical. FvD mainly criticized the abolition of the referendum while the left-wing parties criticized the economic plans. Asscher said the new coalition puts multinationals over people (dude was deputy PM of one of the world's biggest tax havens for 5 years lol) while Jesse Klaver criticized the corporate tax cut and claimed the new government would increase inequality. 50PLUS called it an anti-elderly government and Wilders called the coalition agreement a monster. The only other party that seems remotely positive is the SGP which praised decisions to cut taxes and spend more on Defence (but even they criticized some aspects of the coalition agreement).

Overall it seems like the opposition definitely won't play nice and if I were Rutte I'd hope that VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP wins a majority in the provincial/senate elections (or that they can enact the most important provisions of the coalition agreement before the senate elections). Tax reform is scheduled to happen in 2019 though, and that seems like the most important thing the coalition will do.

The dividend tax also will be repealed btw. Currently only foreign shareholders have to pay it (as businesses/households who owe taxes in the Netherlands get a rebate for this). This tax has been criticized by both tax specialists (because it makes the Netherlands less competitive) and the EU (because it might be illegal according to EU laws). But opponents of the plan claim this only directly benefits foreign investors and that this also will make the Netherlands even more attractive as a tax haven (the Netherlands is a notorious corporate tax haven).

The coalition will introduce a tax on royalty payments though. Because royalty payments are tax-free in the Netherlands a lot of famous artists shelter their wealth here. Personally I back both measures, the dividend tax really hurts Dutch businesses but I also don't really see a reason why the Netherlands should be Mick Jagger's tax haven .

We already knew almost everything about the coalition agreement anyway. Overall households will see a 5.2 billion tax cut, businesses would face a negligible tax increase of 100 million euros (mainly because of higher environmental taxes for businesses I suppose). But the CPB doesn't count the dividend tax repeal as a tax cut for businesses (instead they count it as a tax cut for foreign taxpayers). If you count the dividend tax repeal as a business tax cut businesses also would get a sizable tax cut (the dividend tax repeal costs 1.4 billion euros).

[mvd10]

Halbe Zijlstra said he prefers to become minister of either Social Affairs (to reform the labour market) or Foreign Affairs. I'm not sure if he has any relevant qualifications for the Foreign Affairs spot but I suppose he wouldn't be the first non-diplomat to become Foreign Affairs minister. And since Hennis-Plasschaert probably won't return in the next cabinet I can see this happen. They really should just appoint Han ten Broeke tbh, but I'd be happy with Zijlstra. Apparently he is quite a hawk, he even criticized the Iran deal (which wasn't really controversial in Europe as far as I know).

[DavidB.]

Anyone not named Sigrid Kaag would be fine by me, but I think Zijlstra would make a good minister of Foreign Affairs. I'm a little bit surprised, though, as I had viewed Immigration as the most logical option for Zijlstra -- it seems obvious that Schouten gets Social Affairs. But at the same time he probably "deserves" a "real" ministry after all the work that he has done for the VVD. Since Dutch missions abroad will receive an additional 40 million euros based on the coalition agreement, he could start his work in a positive way (unlike the last Foreign Minister for the VVD, Uri Rosenthal in Rutte-I...).

[Diouf]

Any reactions from prominent D66ers on the immigration part? They do get the increase in UN refugees, while basically accepting the rest of the status quo. The government must really hope that immigration questions do not pop up very often, since this seem perhaps the most obvious topic to tear apart the government with D66 (and CU, I guess) trying to draw its leftward, while VVD and CDA wants it furter right to avoid further losses to PVV and FvD.

Great that elected mayors are finally a thing. Will it be indirect through majorities in council (hopefully) or presidential contests? Also quite happy to see the referendum law go; really hate this "collect signatures online, get referendum".

The economic stuff is hard to judge without knowing the Dutch system in details. I am generally in favour of quite flexible labour laws, as long as there are good social security programs who quickly enter into force. Prefer relatively high property taxation, which seems like the direction the government programme is taking. So generally, I am quite positive, but it sounds like it might be a bit to right-wing for the average voter as well as creating enemies in several different areas, so it will be interesting to see how much ends up getting passed.

Map of government support in the election:

[mileslunn]

Finally it is done.  I like the tax changes.  If the top rate is reduced to 49.5% that means Canada for the first time in many years will have a higher top marginal rate in most provinces while the UK could be higher too if Corbyn wins and likewise the US perhaps in 2020 if a progressive Democrat like Elizabeth Warren wins the white house and the Democrats take both houses.  I do though agree with that as I don't like the idea of making someone pay over half their income to the government unless there is a good reason such as war.  Off course that assumes the coalition will last to 2019 which is no guarantee and also it passes the senate so we shall see.  The top rate now is 52% which is quite high by both EU and OECD standards although only a few percentage points above most other Western European countries.

[DavidB.]

Any reactions from prominent D66ers on the immigration part? They do get the increase in UN refugees, while basically accepting the rest of the status quo. The government must really hope that immigration questions do not pop up very often, since this seem perhaps the most obvious topic to tear apart the government with D66 (and CU, I guess) trying to draw its leftward, while VVD and CDA wants it furter right to avoid further losses to PVV and FvD.

D66 are staying silent about this and prefer to focus on the very green elements: this coalition agreement is quite a step to the right compared to the previous one when it comes to migration issues. Deals such as the one with Turkey are openly embraced, it is acknowledged that immigration has to be countered and poses a threat to our country, welfare state benefits for asylum seekers will start to kick in more gradually and slowly, asylum seekers will not be entitled to legal aid upon arrival anymore (the asylum industry is very angry about this), and if they receive a residence permit it will only be valid for three years instead of five years. Of course this sounds good in theory but may change less in practice in terms of sheer numbers, but perhaps the practical realm will follow the theoretical realm later.

Great that elected mayors are finally a thing. Will it be indirect through majorities in council (hopefully) or presidential contests? Also quite happy to see the referendum law go; really hate this "collect signatures online, get referendum".

The first is already the case. Officially mayors are appointed by the King based on a suggestion of the King's Commissioner in a province, but in practice municipal councils nowadays vote on it on secret ballot (we usually don't even know which other candidates applied and lost) and the King's Commissioner will simply pick the one approved by the municipal council. The proposed change is that the Constitution will no longer include an article on the appointment of mayors by the King, leaving open the possibility to elect them directly, which is what D66 wants. But this can only happen if a qualified majority in parliament supports the process: 76 seats is not enough. And for the constitutional revision to take place, a simple majority in the next parliament should support it too in order fo the change to come into effect.

I'd much prefer the Danish system of organizing referendums when power is transferred to supranational bodies too. But I like this referendum law as well; seeing it go, to me, is the worst part of the coalition agreement and quite angering, because it is so obvious that the only reason is that "we" gave the wrong answer last year.

The economic stuff is hard to judge without knowing the Dutch system in details. I am generally in favour of quite flexible labour laws, as long as there are good social security programs who quickly enter into force. Prefer relatively high property taxation, which seems like the direction the government programme is taking. So generally, I am quite positive, but it sounds like it might be a bit to right-wing for the average voter as well as creating enemies in several different areas, so it will be interesting to see how much ends up getting passed.

In De Volkskrant, Robert Giebels today placed some very critical notes to the coalition agreement: the agreement is not fiscally responsible and will turn the long-term surplus into a deficit, undoing all the work of Rutte-II and calling into question the VVD's fiscally responsible credentials. Most of the government's fiscal measures that cost money (adding up to 15 billion euros in total) are tax cuts, but no one's purchasing power will increase by more than 1% due to fiscal measures that hurt all these demographics as well. The tax system does not really become less complicated apart from the fact that we will only have two brackets, and the approximately 200 deductibles will continue to exist.

In addition, the government will be in a hurry. 2018 is lost: the demissionary VVD-PvdA government presented a "policy-free" budget. In May 2019 the coalition is likely to lose its majority in the Senate. And in March 2021 a new general election will already take place.

Map of government support in the election:

The coalition agreement is named "Trust in the future" and of course these four parties are largely supported by those who do have "trust in the future", as the map shows too.

Personally I am mainly happy that the coalition will not just "watch over the shop" but has dared to make real choices, from the environment to the tax system, immigration and drugs. It contains some disappointing elements (the referendum, the increase in VAT), but is generally a step in the right direction, though obviously not as big a step as I would like.

[mvd10]

It's true that the coalition will spend a huge amount of money (and in the future further budget cuts and/or tax increases will once again be necessary if you want to balance the budget). The tax reform also wasn't as comprehensive as it could/should have been. On the business side it's quite ambitious but on the personal side a huge amount of deductions will remain (like David already said). The low VAT rate also remains (while almost every economist wants an uniform rate). According to the CPB the fiscal plans of the coalition won't even increase employment (changes in government spending would slightly boost labor participation though). I think the CPB underestimates the effects of an income tax cut on labor participation though, and they also don't model the economic effects of corporate tax cuts or investments in education anymore because of budget constraints. But the results still are very underwhelming, especially if you compare it to the results the VVD election manifesto got .

Anyway, I've read the CPB analysis now and I must say that I'm actually quite disappointed. I was happy with the things that leaked out, but the increase in government spending is huge (and not just on defence and education), I expected better from the VVD. Meanwhile it looks like R&D/innovation isn't a top priority for the new coalition and even the tax plan isn't that great. I guess I should be happy with the business tax cuts and labour market reform but I expected better (then again, by Dutch standards I'm a raging libertarian lol).

Map of government support in the election:

The coalition agreement is named "Trust in the future" and of course these four parties are largely supported by those who do have "trust in the future", as the map shows too.

Personally I am mainly happy that the coalition will not just "watch over the shop" but has dared to make real choices, from the environment to the tax system, immigration and drugs. It contains some disappointing elements (the referendum, the increase in VAT), but is generally a step in the right direction, though obviously not as big a step as I would like.

The coalition also received a lot of support in religious areas (which voted for CDA, CU and SGP obviously) and while these areas are by no means poor I don't associate these areas with happy nice guy ff cosmopolitanism. But it's true that this coalition is mainly supported by wealthy and highly educated voters. According to de Hond's poll VVD-CDA-D66-CU won 70% of wealthy voters and 61% of highly educated voters (and just 50% of the general populace). The coalition also has large majorities in the wealthiest municipalities, but that mainly is because of the VVD vote. Top 5 wealthiest municipalities (out of 388) = top 5 VVD municipalities (though not the same order).

[DavidB.]

And a poll on a lot of statements (Peil.nl). Red = more than 10% below average, green = more than 10% above it, bold = most extreme electorate on the issue.


Using a smartphone while cycling should be outlawed
More social housing should be built
Healthcare co-payments should be sharply reduced
School subjects should be sharply adapted to the demands of the 21st century
Clearly more money needs to be spent on Defense
Prison sentences are too low in the Netherlands
The possibility to undergo euthanasia should be expanded in the Netherlands
Market liberalization has gone too far
We have to go back to a national healthcare fund instead of having various separate healthcare insurance companies
More cooperation needs to take place between the countries within the European Union
Youth should be obliged to perform work for the benefit of society for a while
It is acceptable if citizens' privacy is limited in order to combat terrorism
Soft drugs should be legalized
Intensive animal husbandry in the Netherlands should be limited
The state pension age should be lowered to 65


The tax rate for the highest income earners should increase
Gas extraction in Groningen should be terminated
The Netherlands should take in fewer refugees
Stricter climate legislation needs to be passed, even if this hampers economic growth
Instead of paying a fixed price per car, a tax should be payed based on the number of kilometers one drives
Amsterdan Schiphol Airport should be allowed to expand
All adults in the Netherlands should automatically be organ donors, unless they have declared that they wish not to be organ donors
Sin taxes on alcohol and tobacco sholuld be increased (LOL @ SGP here )
Independent freelancers should be obliged to take out disability insurance
Dutch people should be able to stop laws passed by parliament from being enacted through referendums
More subsidies should be allocated for wind power
The Dutch public broadcaster should face budget cuts
It should be easier for employers to fire employees
The 130 km/h speed limit should be reduced to 100 km/h on certain highways
New nuclear power plants should be allowed to be built in the Netherlands

[parochial boy]

I'm a bit surprised at how much the CU and SGP numbers diverge there. Is that to be expected?

[DavidB.]

I'm a bit surprised at how much the CU and SGP numbers diverge there. Is that to be expected?

On the issue of sin taxes perhaps not, but on many other issues, yes. These are in many respects really quite different parties with different priorities and different electorates.

[DC Al Fine]

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

[mileslunn]

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

I think economic issues.  SGP is your Christian fundamentalists while CU is more social Christian.  They are socially conservative, but economically CU leans left unlike SGP.

[DavidB.]

I&O poll (junk, but could be true anyway): in the referendum next year, 50% currently intend to vote for the new espionage law, 30% oppose it and 20% don't know. However, support has decreased from 60% to 50% in the last few weeks.

By party (for/against/don't know):
VVD: 80/10/10
PVV: 57/23/20
CDA: 65/15/20
D66: 48/35/17
GL: 21/49/30
SP: 31/49/20
PvdA: 47/25/28
FvD: 32/47/21

CU, PvdD, 50Plus, SGP and DENK: not enough respondents.

Junk pollster and a lot may still change, but this seems to be the first serious poll on this, so I decided to write on it anyway.

On the coalition formation, I actually think Barbara Visser (VVD) could become the new Infrastructure Minister.

[mvd10]

Barbara Visser has potential, but I think she'll be state secretary of something first. Herna Verhagen (PostNL CEO) also has been mentioned and she looks like an excellent candidate. But I doubt she wants to become minister of Infrastructure as Infrastructure will be a fairly low position in the next cabinet (as Environment probably will go to the new Climate position).

I&O poll (junk, but could be true anyway): in the referendum next year, 50% currently intend to vote for the new espionage law, 30% oppose it and 20% don't know. However, support has decreased from 60% to 50% in the last few weeks.

By party (for/against/don't know):
VVD: 80/10/10
PVV: 57/23/20
CDA: 65/15/20
D66: 48/35/17
GL: 21/49/30
SP: 31/49/20
PvdA: 47/25/28
FvD: 32/47/21

CU, PvdD, 50Plus, SGP and DENK: not enough respondents.

Junk pollster and a lot may still change, but this seems to be the first serious poll on this, so I decided to write on it anyway.

On the coalition formation, I actually think Barbara Visser (VVD) could become the new Infrastructure Minister.

D66 voters support this law lol. What happened to D66? First the referendum and now this. They've become the epitome of the establishment they once rebelled against.

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

On economic issues they probably grew closer to each other as CU's predecessors were really left-wing on economic issues while CU decided to ditch the whole Christian Social thing a couple of years ago (they're still to the left of VVD/CDA/D66 on economic issues, but not by much). And on things like climate change or immigration the CU and it's predecessors always were to the left of the SGP as far as I know.

On social issues the CU became more progressive, but we also shouldn't forget that the SGP also moved to the left on those. The SGP used to be really anti-Catholic. The founder of the SGP described Catholics as "the true enemy", they made rather anti-Catholic comments as recently as 2001 and they even voted against royal marriages with Catholics. They only voted for the marriage between Queen Maxima and King Willem-Alexander under heavy pressure of PM Kok (and only after Kok guaranteed them that the children would be Protestants and Maxima would consider becoming a Protestant herself). But now they're actually courting socially conservative Catholic voters, something which would have been unheard of in the past (though running Catholic candidates still is a bridge too far for them). The SGP's stance on women in politics also gradually shifted. They only fully accepted female suffrage in 1989, women were allowed to become full members in 2006 and since 2013 women are allowed to run for office as SGP candidates.

I think the possibility of government participation and the desire to be more than a testimonial party is what made the CU less principled. Not long after the fusion there were discussions on a CDA-VVD minority cabinet with CU and SGP support. These talks failed largely because a lot of VVD politicians (and even some CDA politicians) weren't comfortable with the very socially conservative views of those parties. 3 years later the CU platform was a lot more moderate and they managed to enter government (CDA-PvdA-CU).

[mvd10]

Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) will become the next Finance Minister according to Het Financieele Dagblad. Wouter Koolmees was the D66 candidate, but he will get another position. Hoekstra is member of the senate and Partner at McKinsey (being senator is a part-time job).

The new coalition will have 16 Ministers and 8 State Secretaries. The Healthcare, Economic Affairs, Education and Security & Justice departments will get an additional Minister. In the case of Healthcare and Education it wouldn't change much though, they already had very powerful State Secretaries, the new Minister will basically have the same tasks as the State Secretary. The Security & Justice department will have a Security Minister and a Justice Minister, this probably is a good thing as the workload for the Security & Justice Minister was huge. The Economic Affairs Ministry probably also will get an additional Minister (there currently is one Economic Affairs Minister, but it will be split into a Climate Minister and an Agriculture Minister) but I'm reading conflicting stories on this.

There also will be new State Secretaries for Immigration and Defence (and probably for Foreign Affairs as well). CDA MP and ex-soldier Raymond Knops probably will become the new Defence Minister.

Anyway, Halbe Zijlstra also looks like a great fit for the new Security Minister, but he already said he prefers to be either Social Affairs Minister or Foreign Affairs Minister, and he wouldn't have said this if he didn't know that he atleast was being heavily considered for those positions. Then again, he initially said that he wanted to be Social Affairs Minister and now it looks like he definitely won't get that post (CU MP Schouten is the heavy favorite while D66 MP Koolmees also is a contender after getting passed over for Finance), so maybe he's just bluffing. Usually potential Ministers keep their mouths shut about their preferred cabinet position and we'll see the reason why if Zijlstra doesn't get the job he wants .

[mvd10]

Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert just confirmed that she won't return in Rutte 3 as a Minister. Instead she will
become an MP again.

[jeron]

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

RPF and GPV were indeed linked to orthodox Reformed churches. After the merger of RPF and GPV, CU gradually became less conservative in order to appeal to members of pentecostal and baptist churches.