Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

Halbe Zijlstra said he prefers to become minister of either Social Affairs (to reform the labour market) or Foreign Affairs. I'm not sure if he has any relevant qualifications for the Foreign Affairs spot but I suppose he wouldn't be the first non-diplomat to become Foreign Affairs minister. And since Hennis-Plasschaert probably won't return in the next cabinet I can see this happen. They really should just appoint Han ten Broeke tbh, but I'd be happy with Zijlstra. Apparently he is quite a hawk, he even criticized the Iran deal (which wasn't really controversial in Europe as far as I know).

[DavidB.]

Anyone not named Sigrid Kaag would be fine by me, but I think Zijlstra would make a good minister of Foreign Affairs. I'm a little bit surprised, though, as I had viewed Immigration as the most logical option for Zijlstra -- it seems obvious that Schouten gets Social Affairs. But at the same time he probably "deserves" a "real" ministry after all the work that he has done for the VVD. Since Dutch missions abroad will receive an additional 40 million euros based on the coalition agreement, he could start his work in a positive way (unlike the last Foreign Minister for the VVD, Uri Rosenthal in Rutte-I...).

[Diouf]

Any reactions from prominent D66ers on the immigration part? They do get the increase in UN refugees, while basically accepting the rest of the status quo. The government must really hope that immigration questions do not pop up very often, since this seem perhaps the most obvious topic to tear apart the government with D66 (and CU, I guess) trying to draw its leftward, while VVD and CDA wants it furter right to avoid further losses to PVV and FvD.

Great that elected mayors are finally a thing. Will it be indirect through majorities in council (hopefully) or presidential contests? Also quite happy to see the referendum law go; really hate this "collect signatures online, get referendum".

The economic stuff is hard to judge without knowing the Dutch system in details. I am generally in favour of quite flexible labour laws, as long as there are good social security programs who quickly enter into force. Prefer relatively high property taxation, which seems like the direction the government programme is taking. So generally, I am quite positive, but it sounds like it might be a bit to right-wing for the average voter as well as creating enemies in several different areas, so it will be interesting to see how much ends up getting passed.

Map of government support in the election:

[mileslunn]

Finally it is done.  I like the tax changes.  If the top rate is reduced to 49.5% that means Canada for the first time in many years will have a higher top marginal rate in most provinces while the UK could be higher too if Corbyn wins and likewise the US perhaps in 2020 if a progressive Democrat like Elizabeth Warren wins the white house and the Democrats take both houses.  I do though agree with that as I don't like the idea of making someone pay over half their income to the government unless there is a good reason such as war.  Off course that assumes the coalition will last to 2019 which is no guarantee and also it passes the senate so we shall see.  The top rate now is 52% which is quite high by both EU and OECD standards although only a few percentage points above most other Western European countries.

[DavidB.]

Any reactions from prominent D66ers on the immigration part? They do get the increase in UN refugees, while basically accepting the rest of the status quo. The government must really hope that immigration questions do not pop up very often, since this seem perhaps the most obvious topic to tear apart the government with D66 (and CU, I guess) trying to draw its leftward, while VVD and CDA wants it furter right to avoid further losses to PVV and FvD.

D66 are staying silent about this and prefer to focus on the very green elements: this coalition agreement is quite a step to the right compared to the previous one when it comes to migration issues. Deals such as the one with Turkey are openly embraced, it is acknowledged that immigration has to be countered and poses a threat to our country, welfare state benefits for asylum seekers will start to kick in more gradually and slowly, asylum seekers will not be entitled to legal aid upon arrival anymore (the asylum industry is very angry about this), and if they receive a residence permit it will only be valid for three years instead of five years. Of course this sounds good in theory but may change less in practice in terms of sheer numbers, but perhaps the practical realm will follow the theoretical realm later.

Great that elected mayors are finally a thing. Will it be indirect through majorities in council (hopefully) or presidential contests? Also quite happy to see the referendum law go; really hate this "collect signatures online, get referendum".

The first is already the case. Officially mayors are appointed by the King based on a suggestion of the King's Commissioner in a province, but in practice municipal councils nowadays vote on it on secret ballot (we usually don't even know which other candidates applied and lost) and the King's Commissioner will simply pick the one approved by the municipal council. The proposed change is that the Constitution will no longer include an article on the appointment of mayors by the King, leaving open the possibility to elect them directly, which is what D66 wants. But this can only happen if a qualified majority in parliament supports the process: 76 seats is not enough. And for the constitutional revision to take place, a simple majority in the next parliament should support it too in order fo the change to come into effect.

I'd much prefer the Danish system of organizing referendums when power is transferred to supranational bodies too. But I like this referendum law as well; seeing it go, to me, is the worst part of the coalition agreement and quite angering, because it is so obvious that the only reason is that "we" gave the wrong answer last year.

The economic stuff is hard to judge without knowing the Dutch system in details. I am generally in favour of quite flexible labour laws, as long as there are good social security programs who quickly enter into force. Prefer relatively high property taxation, which seems like the direction the government programme is taking. So generally, I am quite positive, but it sounds like it might be a bit to right-wing for the average voter as well as creating enemies in several different areas, so it will be interesting to see how much ends up getting passed.

In De Volkskrant, Robert Giebels today placed some very critical notes to the coalition agreement: the agreement is not fiscally responsible and will turn the long-term surplus into a deficit, undoing all the work of Rutte-II and calling into question the VVD's fiscally responsible credentials. Most of the government's fiscal measures that cost money (adding up to 15 billion euros in total) are tax cuts, but no one's purchasing power will increase by more than 1% due to fiscal measures that hurt all these demographics as well. The tax system does not really become less complicated apart from the fact that we will only have two brackets, and the approximately 200 deductibles will continue to exist.

In addition, the government will be in a hurry. 2018 is lost: the demissionary VVD-PvdA government presented a "policy-free" budget. In May 2019 the coalition is likely to lose its majority in the Senate. And in March 2021 a new general election will already take place.

Map of government support in the election:

The coalition agreement is named "Trust in the future" and of course these four parties are largely supported by those who do have "trust in the future", as the map shows too.

Personally I am mainly happy that the coalition will not just "watch over the shop" but has dared to make real choices, from the environment to the tax system, immigration and drugs. It contains some disappointing elements (the referendum, the increase in VAT), but is generally a step in the right direction, though obviously not as big a step as I would like.

[mvd10]

It's true that the coalition will spend a huge amount of money (and in the future further budget cuts and/or tax increases will once again be necessary if you want to balance the budget). The tax reform also wasn't as comprehensive as it could/should have been. On the business side it's quite ambitious but on the personal side a huge amount of deductions will remain (like David already said). The low VAT rate also remains (while almost every economist wants an uniform rate). According to the CPB the fiscal plans of the coalition won't even increase employment (changes in government spending would slightly boost labor participation though). I think the CPB underestimates the effects of an income tax cut on labor participation though, and they also don't model the economic effects of corporate tax cuts or investments in education anymore because of budget constraints. But the results still are very underwhelming, especially if you compare it to the results the VVD election manifesto got .

Anyway, I've read the CPB analysis now and I must say that I'm actually quite disappointed. I was happy with the things that leaked out, but the increase in government spending is huge (and not just on defence and education), I expected better from the VVD. Meanwhile it looks like R&D/innovation isn't a top priority for the new coalition and even the tax plan isn't that great. I guess I should be happy with the business tax cuts and labour market reform but I expected better (then again, by Dutch standards I'm a raging libertarian lol).

Map of government support in the election:

The coalition agreement is named "Trust in the future" and of course these four parties are largely supported by those who do have "trust in the future", as the map shows too.

Personally I am mainly happy that the coalition will not just "watch over the shop" but has dared to make real choices, from the environment to the tax system, immigration and drugs. It contains some disappointing elements (the referendum, the increase in VAT), but is generally a step in the right direction, though obviously not as big a step as I would like.

The coalition also received a lot of support in religious areas (which voted for CDA, CU and SGP obviously) and while these areas are by no means poor I don't associate these areas with happy nice guy ff cosmopolitanism. But it's true that this coalition is mainly supported by wealthy and highly educated voters. According to de Hond's poll VVD-CDA-D66-CU won 70% of wealthy voters and 61% of highly educated voters (and just 50% of the general populace). The coalition also has large majorities in the wealthiest municipalities, but that mainly is because of the VVD vote. Top 5 wealthiest municipalities (out of 388) = top 5 VVD municipalities (though not the same order).

[DavidB.]

And a poll on a lot of statements (Peil.nl). Red = more than 10% below average, green = more than 10% above it, bold = most extreme electorate on the issue.


Using a smartphone while cycling should be outlawed
More social housing should be built
Healthcare co-payments should be sharply reduced
School subjects should be sharply adapted to the demands of the 21st century
Clearly more money needs to be spent on Defense
Prison sentences are too low in the Netherlands
The possibility to undergo euthanasia should be expanded in the Netherlands
Market liberalization has gone too far
We have to go back to a national healthcare fund instead of having various separate healthcare insurance companies
More cooperation needs to take place between the countries within the European Union
Youth should be obliged to perform work for the benefit of society for a while
It is acceptable if citizens' privacy is limited in order to combat terrorism
Soft drugs should be legalized
Intensive animal husbandry in the Netherlands should be limited
The state pension age should be lowered to 65


The tax rate for the highest income earners should increase
Gas extraction in Groningen should be terminated
The Netherlands should take in fewer refugees
Stricter climate legislation needs to be passed, even if this hampers economic growth
Instead of paying a fixed price per car, a tax should be payed based on the number of kilometers one drives
Amsterdan Schiphol Airport should be allowed to expand
All adults in the Netherlands should automatically be organ donors, unless they have declared that they wish not to be organ donors
Sin taxes on alcohol and tobacco sholuld be increased (LOL @ SGP here )
Independent freelancers should be obliged to take out disability insurance
Dutch people should be able to stop laws passed by parliament from being enacted through referendums
More subsidies should be allocated for wind power
The Dutch public broadcaster should face budget cuts
It should be easier for employers to fire employees
The 130 km/h speed limit should be reduced to 100 km/h on certain highways
New nuclear power plants should be allowed to be built in the Netherlands

[parochial boy]

I'm a bit surprised at how much the CU and SGP numbers diverge there. Is that to be expected?

[DavidB.]

I'm a bit surprised at how much the CU and SGP numbers diverge there. Is that to be expected?

On the issue of sin taxes perhaps not, but on many other issues, yes. These are in many respects really quite different parties with different priorities and different electorates.

[DC Al Fine]

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

[mileslunn]

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

I think economic issues.  SGP is your Christian fundamentalists while CU is more social Christian.  They are socially conservative, but economically CU leans left unlike SGP.

[DavidB.]

I&O poll (junk, but could be true anyway): in the referendum next year, 50% currently intend to vote for the new espionage law, 30% oppose it and 20% don't know. However, support has decreased from 60% to 50% in the last few weeks.

By party (for/against/don't know):
VVD: 80/10/10
PVV: 57/23/20
CDA: 65/15/20
D66: 48/35/17
GL: 21/49/30
SP: 31/49/20
PvdA: 47/25/28
FvD: 32/47/21

CU, PvdD, 50Plus, SGP and DENK: not enough respondents.

Junk pollster and a lot may still change, but this seems to be the first serious poll on this, so I decided to write on it anyway.

On the coalition formation, I actually think Barbara Visser (VVD) could become the new Infrastructure Minister.

[mvd10]

Barbara Visser has potential, but I think she'll be state secretary of something first. Herna Verhagen (PostNL CEO) also has been mentioned and she looks like an excellent candidate. But I doubt she wants to become minister of Infrastructure as Infrastructure will be a fairly low position in the next cabinet (as Environment probably will go to the new Climate position).

I&O poll (junk, but could be true anyway): in the referendum next year, 50% currently intend to vote for the new espionage law, 30% oppose it and 20% don't know. However, support has decreased from 60% to 50% in the last few weeks.

By party (for/against/don't know):
VVD: 80/10/10
PVV: 57/23/20
CDA: 65/15/20
D66: 48/35/17
GL: 21/49/30
SP: 31/49/20
PvdA: 47/25/28
FvD: 32/47/21

CU, PvdD, 50Plus, SGP and DENK: not enough respondents.

Junk pollster and a lot may still change, but this seems to be the first serious poll on this, so I decided to write on it anyway.

On the coalition formation, I actually think Barbara Visser (VVD) could become the new Infrastructure Minister.

D66 voters support this law lol. What happened to D66? First the referendum and now this. They've become the epitome of the establishment they once rebelled against.

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

On economic issues they probably grew closer to each other as CU's predecessors were really left-wing on economic issues while CU decided to ditch the whole Christian Social thing a couple of years ago (they're still to the left of VVD/CDA/D66 on economic issues, but not by much). And on things like climate change or immigration the CU and it's predecessors always were to the left of the SGP as far as I know.

On social issues the CU became more progressive, but we also shouldn't forget that the SGP also moved to the left on those. The SGP used to be really anti-Catholic. The founder of the SGP described Catholics as "the true enemy", they made rather anti-Catholic comments as recently as 2001 and they even voted against royal marriages with Catholics. They only voted for the marriage between Queen Maxima and King Willem-Alexander under heavy pressure of PM Kok (and only after Kok guaranteed them that the children would be Protestants and Maxima would consider becoming a Protestant herself). But now they're actually courting socially conservative Catholic voters, something which would have been unheard of in the past (though running Catholic candidates still is a bridge too far for them). The SGP's stance on women in politics also gradually shifted. They only fully accepted female suffrage in 1989, women were allowed to become full members in 2006 and since 2013 women are allowed to run for office as SGP candidates.

I think the possibility of government participation and the desire to be more than a testimonial party is what made the CU less principled. Not long after the fusion there were discussions on a CDA-VVD minority cabinet with CU and SGP support. These talks failed largely because a lot of VVD politicians (and even some CDA politicians) weren't comfortable with the very socially conservative views of those parties. 3 years later the CU platform was a lot more moderate and they managed to enter government (CDA-PvdA-CU).

[mvd10]

Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) will become the next Finance Minister according to Het Financieele Dagblad. Wouter Koolmees was the D66 candidate, but he will get another position. Hoekstra is member of the senate and Partner at McKinsey (being senator is a part-time job).

The new coalition will have 16 Ministers and 8 State Secretaries. The Healthcare, Economic Affairs, Education and Security & Justice departments will get an additional Minister. In the case of Healthcare and Education it wouldn't change much though, they already had very powerful State Secretaries, the new Minister will basically have the same tasks as the State Secretary. The Security & Justice department will have a Security Minister and a Justice Minister, this probably is a good thing as the workload for the Security & Justice Minister was huge. The Economic Affairs Ministry probably also will get an additional Minister (there currently is one Economic Affairs Minister, but it will be split into a Climate Minister and an Agriculture Minister) but I'm reading conflicting stories on this.

There also will be new State Secretaries for Immigration and Defence (and probably for Foreign Affairs as well). CDA MP and ex-soldier Raymond Knops probably will become the new Defence Minister.

Anyway, Halbe Zijlstra also looks like a great fit for the new Security Minister, but he already said he prefers to be either Social Affairs Minister or Foreign Affairs Minister, and he wouldn't have said this if he didn't know that he atleast was being heavily considered for those positions. Then again, he initially said that he wanted to be Social Affairs Minister and now it looks like he definitely won't get that post (CU MP Schouten is the heavy favorite while D66 MP Koolmees also is a contender after getting passed over for Finance), so maybe he's just bluffing. Usually potential Ministers keep their mouths shut about their preferred cabinet position and we'll see the reason why if Zijlstra doesn't get the job he wants .

[mvd10]

Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert just confirmed that she won't return in Rutte 3 as a Minister. Instead she will
become an MP again.

[jeron]

How did that CU-SGP divergence take place? CU's predecessor parties don't seem that different from the SGP. I.e. they were affiliated with very conservative Reformed churches.

RPF and GPV were indeed linked to orthodox Reformed churches. After the merger of RPF and GPV, CU gradually became less conservative in order to appeal to members of pentecostal and baptist churches.

[jeron]

Great that elected mayors are finally a thing. Will it be indirect through majorities in council (hopefully) or presidential contests? Also quite happy to see the referendum law go; really hate this "collect signatures online, get referendum".

The first is already the case. Officially mayors are appointed by the King based on a suggestion of the King's Commissioner in a province, but in practice municipal councils nowadays vote on it on secret ballot (we usually don't even know which other candidates applied and lost) and the King's Commissioner will simply pick the one approved by the municipal council. The proposed change is that the Constitution will no longer include an article on the appointment of mayors by the King, leaving open the possibility to elect them directly, which is what D66 wants. But this can only happen if a qualified majority in parliament supports the process: 76 seats is not enough. And for the constitutional revision to take place, a simple majority in the next parliament should support it too in order fo the change to come into effect.

D66 already initiated a proposal during the previous parliamentary period, which was approved by both chambers. If parliament approves it with a qualified majority now, it becomes law and the changes take effect.

[mvd10]

Peil.nl released another weekly poll. They polled the coalition agreement and it looks like most of the plans are supported. The least popular plan is increasing the VAT to pay for income tax cuts which is only supported by VVD voters. Repealing the dividend tax and reduces corporate taxes also aren't very popular, but they still score decently (especially with VVD voters).

They also looked at the differences between people who voted for VVD/CDA/D66 in March but would vote for a different party now. People who voted VVD in March bute would vote for something else today are much more supportive of referendums (VVD-FvD voters I suppose), the same goes for CDA voters. D66 voters who left mainly left because the next coalition won't pass a new euthanasia law.

They also did a poll on Rutte's approval rating, it's 44% (which is quite decent, I suspect he was much lower in 2013/2014). The most surprising thing is that only 42% of CDA voters approves of Rutte. This probably is because of Buma's hard opposition to Rutte 2 and his recent criticisms of liberalism and individualism. The poll last week also showed that CDA voters were much more likely to agree with statements like "market liberalization has gone too far" or "the pension age should be reduced to 65" than VVD or even D66 voters. It seems like Buma has transformed the party into a more nationalist and conservative party which is critical of both left-wing social policies and laissez-faire capitalism. Electorally this probably is a smart thing (as there is a lot of electoral space for these policies) but it looks like it wasn't enough to prevent CDA voters from leaving to FvD.

[mvd10]

Halbe Zijlstra (currently VVD parliamentary leader) will become Foreign Affairs Minister while Eric Wiebes (also VVD, currently State Secretary of Finance) will become Economic Affairs and Climate Minister according to De Telegraaf. Especially Wiebes' appointment is surprising as one would have expected D66 or CU to claim the Climate Ministry because of their green credentials.

[DavidB.]

Absolutely great news. No D66 activist on Climate and a hawk on Foreign Affairs -- much better than Hennis too, who would have gotten it if not for the Mali scandal. The VVD have certainly managed to strike a very good deal in terms of ministries, and that's good for the country. D66 will have a difficult time explaining this to their voters, though... wondering which ministry goes to Ollongren now.

[Dutch Conservative]

Absolutely great news. No D66 activist on Climate and a hawk on Foreign Affairs -- much better than Hennis too, who would have gotten it if not for the Mali scandal. The VVD have certainly managed to strike a very good deal in terms of ministries, and that's good for the country. D66 will have a difficult time explaining this to their voters, though... wondering which ministry goes to Ollongren now.

Perhaps education? Wich will mean more money and power to the schoolboards instead of the teachers I guess (says a teacher).

[mvd10]

Ollongren probably will get Education or something like that. Maybe even Interior. I've heard that people in Amsterdam aren't terribly enthusiastic about her, so that probably explains why she'll get a second tier Ministry. I think Wouter Koolmees' future position is more interesting, he was D66's candidate for the Finance Ministry so they clearly see something in him.

Anyway, I'm not really sure whether Wiebes at Climate will make a huge difference. People always say that personnel is policy, but the coalition agreement is quite clear on climate issues. Wiebes also is one of the more left-wing VVD politicians (like Winsemius or Nijpels, his predecessors as VVD climate/environment ministers) so he's probably pretty close to D66. Anyway, I'm somewhat progressive on environmental issues so I don't really care (though I oppose GL's radical changes and tax increases I support a green tax shift and investing in clean energy).

Ideologically I should be thrilled with someone like Zijlstra at Foreign Affairs (like David said: he's quite a hawk), but I wonder why they didn't just appoint ten Broeke. Ten Broeke is extremely qualified for the role and I don't think his foreign policy views are much different from Zijlstra's (I've read his article on foreign policy). Meanwhile Zijlstra doesn't really have any foreign policy experience. Anyway, I shouldn't complain. Atleast it's not Kaag or Stienen (D66). And being Foreign Affairs Minister probably helps Zijlstra's chances to be the next VVD leader, but that doesn't really matter because the other candidate (Dijkhoff) is just as awesome .

[DavidB.]

Absolutely great news. No D66 activist on Climate and a hawk on Foreign Affairs -- much better than Hennis too, who would have gotten it if not for the Mali scandal. The VVD have certainly managed to strike a very good deal in terms of ministries, and that's good for the country. D66 will have a difficult time explaining this to their voters, though... wondering which ministry goes to Ollongren now.

Perhaps education? Wich will mean more money and power to the schoolboards instead of the teachers I guess (says a teacher).

I completely agree. I've given up my hopes for real, meaningful changes in the education system: fewer managers, fewer marketing nonsense, back to the basics, and more money for teachers. People have been saying it for decades now, but it seems as if nothing ever changes, and PvdA, VVD, CDA and D66 are all guilty.

As for Ten Broeke, it is clear that he would be the better pick, but in the world of the VVD Zijlstra "deserved" it and Ten Broeke hasn't. Hope the latter doesn't resign. Today must be about the worst day in his career.

[mvd10]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ten Broeke goes to Brussels in 2019 as MEP (just like Hans van Baalen in 2009). He would be a great addition to the Foreign Affairs Committee there. He could still become State Secretary btw. Probably not Foreign Affairs as there already is a VVD Minister there (and parties usually don't get both the State Secretary and the Minister) but if Defence goes to the CDA he could be State Secretary of Defence. Or he could even become Defence Minister, but that's also unlikely as it's very rare for 1 party to hold both the Defence and Foreign Affairs portfolio (just like the economic portfolios are divided pretty evenly between the coalition partners).

[Diouf]

And being Foreign Affairs Minister probably helps Zijlstra's chances to be the next VVD leader, but that doesn't really matter because the other candidate (Dijkhoff) is just as awesome .

Maybe I've missed it in the thread, but will Dijkhoff keep an important position in the new cabinet? Danish Minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg has talked about a close relationsship with him and the Belgian Immigration Minister Theo Francken, so I guess he is among the hardliners in VVD on immigration?