Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zanas]

The most hilarious figure in the 2015 chart is the compared potential votes of PvdD and PvdA.

[Zanas]

The SGP launched a campaign against... adultery. Party leader Kees van der Staaij warns for the dangers websites like SecondLove and Ashley Madison pose to families, communities and society. It shows that the SGP and its media-savvy leader are increasingly comfortable with using modern platforms to communicate their ideas regarding society. Under their last leader, the SGP was often called the "polder Taliban" by critics, but now Van der Staaij was invited to the most serious political debating program in the Netherlands (whereas most SGP members don't have a tv...) to discuss this topic, and I believe many people were positive about his performance. To be sure, this doesn't have to do with politics or proposals to limit these websites' activities (which would have no chance in liberal Netherlands): the SGP simply wants to draw attention for the devastating consequences adultery has.

snip

A billboard on the beltway of Utrecht, the fourth city in the Netherlands. Text: "Adultery: the family game in which there are only losers!"

The SGP financed this campaign privately, through donations. Within a few days, they already raised 50,000 euros: many devout Reformed Protestants have extremely successful businesses in the Bible Belt (Max Weber was right...).

Fascinating reading by the way.

Would you say the SGP is to the right of the PVV ? I mean on economic policies it's obvious, but on social matters, how would you place both of them on a spectrum ?

[Zanas]

Why is VNL not polled? Or is it part of the 0.3 Andere ? Then why is it so low ? Is it dead already?

And is SP losing to PvdA a thing again, or is it just Ipsos being Ipsos ? SP is taking quite a blow from the passed weeks and months in this one poll.

[Zanas]

Have you got tangible proof that SP is in fact bleeding voters to PVV ? People say this a lot in France, and until very very recently it had never been proven, though since 2012 we had a few instances in which left-wing voters seem to have indeed chosen the FN instead. Is the SP->PVV transfer an older and more established thing ?

[Zanas]

On the subject of double citizenship, French Minister for Education Najat Vallaud-Belkacem is often attacked by the far-right on her holding Moroccan and French citizenship, but actually you cannot renounce your Moroccan citizenship even if you'd want to. So, on this subject at least, it's a false trial on Arib. I can see her belonging to an advisory committee to king Mohammed 6 a much more problematic issue, though.

[Zanas]

The sentence "by the grace of God" is part of the formal text that the King signs when officially enacting a law. According to D66 MP Stientje van Veldhoven, this should be removed, since it is contrary to the separation of Church and State. She therefore put forward an initiative, which will be up for a parliamentary vote.

I'm curious what PVV's stance would be on this topic ? "OMG they're hurting our beloved Christian traditions and values !!!1!11!" or "We don't need old bigoted references, we're in a modern world" ? I could see both, but with the migrants being perceived as mostly Muslim, I guess the first one would be the best electorally speaking.

[Zanas]

FWIW, DavidB, I read ya. You achieve a below-Tender level of updating pace and xenophobia, which is pleasant enough for me to follow this thread and not have you on ignore, contrary to Austria. This was actually a compliment, but it turned out a bit awkward. Oh well.

[Zanas]

Why all the talk about the Armenian genocide ? Has it been an issue ? Or is it just because Denk's founders are of Turkish descent ?

[Zanas]

So it has just become a kind of litmus test to see if a party is somewhat sane and sincere ? That's awesome ! I don't get the impression it is used as widely as a test in any other country, even in Germany where there are to my knowledge even more voters of Turkish descent.

Also, I see you use the word genocide for the Armenian genocide : that's awesome too ; not all Jews agree to do that...

[Zanas]

Tbf Armenian genocide denial is illegal in France whereas in Israel the genocide is, err, treated with Realpolitik gloves from what I've heard.

True, but it's kind of... weird to feel the necessity to make snarky remarks about that government policy to individual Jews -- especially if they don't even hold Israeli passports. It is also weird to imply that Jews specifically have a problem with recognizing the Armenian genocide while I have the impression that if anything, Jews, both in Israel and in Europe, might be even more inclined to recognize the Armenian genocide than most peoples, and certainly not less.

It was not snarky at all, I'm being misunderstood here. What I meant is that some Jews, some of them prominent, have a "only one True Genocide" policy when it comes to genocides. I don't know if it's specific to French Jews or not, but I have seen some and talked to them. These people tend to undermine the characterization of other genocides as "Genocides" because they feel it will undermine the character of the Shoah as "the Genocide" and open the way to further negationism. Again, it's not necessarily a widespread belief among Jews, even French Jews, it's just one that exists and manifests itself from time to time. That is why I acknowledged your lack of reluctancy to use that term.

[Zanas]

I once took a one-morning-long nap in a toilet booth in the Ministry of Social Affairs in Den Haag. Long story that involves lots of whisky and cannabis. Fun times.

[Zanas]

I would not have expected such a topic to fall into such a clear(ish) left-right divide. For example I would have expected at least some of the PVV to be in favor, but I guess MUH STATE-DICTATORSHIP.

[Zanas]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Your wealth tax is on anything over $20,000 euros? That's ridiculous; worse than any proposal I've seen by our lefty avatars (sans the commies of course). Was it just never adjusted for inflation or did someone actually implement it at roughly $20k in today's money?

I may have to start supporting libertarian parties in the Netherlands.

Are we talking 20,000 € a month, a year, or in assets ? Because the latter two would be absolutely insane, I concur. The former, however, I would easily be on board.

[Zanas]

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What


PVV is nothing close to Christianity, if they want to have future "in Christian nation" they should vote SGP not some sh**tty populists. And I am not even going to comment that Islamic Nation part.

Don't try to argue with fascists. You'll find them deaf to anything rational, and eventually you'll find out they actually enjoy the argument when you're boiling.

[Zanas]

First I was like "Huh! Funny, "eye-candy Ancilla", like that model on dA", and then I was like "Wait, she is that model on dA !?"

[Zanas]

Even without the recent unfortunate Turkish events, I would have predicted that the PVV was being underpolled because, come on, that's just the period we live in, isn't it? The most awful candidates and ideas tend to do well on election day compared to polling these days. Or maybe it's just a cognitive bias? I don't think it is.

So with the recent unfortunate Turkish events, I'm going to say the PVV will get even more of an election day boost and end up in first place with close to, if not, 30 seats. SP will lose a couple of their 15 seats, and GL won't be anywhere near 20 seats, more like 12. The rest I have no idea and frankly don't care.

[Zanas]

Fascists get an underwhelming result in spite of a late fuss caused by Islamic jerks? Social traitors from a "social-democratic" party who governed 5 years as right-wing tools get brutally slashed? Both ecologist parties more than doubling their parliamentary representation? Say no more: I'm in.

[Zanas]

Another hilarious part of the debate was when Baudet started his maiden speech in Latin ("Quo usque tandem factionem cartellum et officiorum magina, patientia nostra abuditur dum navis praetoria resurrectionis ad profiscendum parata est?") and was warned by Speaker Arib to talk in Dutch.

My hero!

[Zanas]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

Is VVD-CDA-D66-CU no longer an alternative option ?