IA-Monmouth: Walker up 9

[Donerail]

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Walker: 22%
Trump: 13%
Carson: 8%
Bush: 7%
Cruz: 7%
Huckabee: 6%
Rubio: 5%
Paul: 5%
Jindal: 4%
Santorum: 3%
Perry: 3%
Fiorina: 3%
Kasich: 2%
Christie: 1%
Pataki: <1%
Graham: 0%
Gilmore: 0%
Undecided: 11%

Walker leads among all sub-groups polled.

[Mr. Morden]

Poll conducted July 16-19.  Trump is 47% favorable, 35% unfavorable among Republican voters, giving him a better rating than Bush, Christie, Graham, and even Paul.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Not good for Bush.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Maybe it's kind of a regional thing, with Wisconsin being so close to Iowa, but I still think Walker will be the GOP nominee.

[Mehmentum]

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Also, Bush's favorables continue to be mediocre.

Jeb Bush: 40% Favorable, 42% Unfavorable (-2)

[Likely Voter]

5% for Paul seems abnormally low for him in IA. Outlier or warning sign?

[OkThen]

Not good for Bush.

Yeah but he was never going to do well in Iowa. His path to the nomination (if he wins) would likely be similar to McCain in '08 (bad showing in Iowa, but comes back strong in NH/maybe SC/FL)

[eric82oslo]

The moderate candidates (and then I even include semi-conservative Rubio, yet leave out Trump & Fiorina), get a total of only 20%, together! That's even less than Walker all by himself.

[Gass3268]

Not good for Bush.

Yeah but he was never going to do well in Iowa. His path to the nomination (if he wins) would likely be similar to McCain in '08 (bad showing in Iowa, but comes back strong in NH/maybe SC/FL)

The current schedule is not very good for Bush. Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota Caucus, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia all currently are scheduled to go after South Carolina/Nevada but before Florida. I only see 3-4 possible wins in there for Jeb!.

[eric82oslo]

Not good for Bush.

Yeah but he was never going to do well in Iowa. His path to the nomination (if he wins) would likely be similar to McCain in '08 (bad showing in Iowa, but comes back strong in NH/maybe SC/FL)

The current schedule is not very good for Bush. Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota Caucus, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia all currently are scheduled to go after South Carolina/Nevada but before Florida. I only see 3-4 possible wins in there for Jeb!.

I see between 8 and 10 actually. Southern states + liberal states are exactly the places where Bush's brand is the strongest. Most of those states are either Southern or liberal. States where Bush will probably do really bad are places like Wyoming, Idaho, Kansas, the Dakotas, Indiana, Iowa, Utah, etcetera I think. Could probably add Oregon, Alaska, Nevada and Arizona as well (and Colorado?), but who knows, as it will also depend on the percentage of Hispanic GOP primary voters in some of those states.

[Gass3268]

Not good for Bush.

Yeah but he was never going to do well in Iowa. His path to the nomination (if he wins) would likely be similar to McCain in '08 (bad showing in Iowa, but comes back strong in NH/maybe SC/FL)

The current schedule is not very good for Bush. Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota Caucus, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia all currently are scheduled to go after South Carolina/Nevada but before Florida. I only see 3-4 possible wins in there for Jeb!.

I see between 8 and 10 actually. Southern states + liberal states are exactly the places where Bush's brand is the strongest. Most of those states are either Southern or liberal. States where Bush will probably do really bad are places like Wyoming, Idaho, Kansas, the Dakotas, Indiana, Iowa, Utah, etcetera I think. Could probably add Oregon, Alaska, Nevada and Arizona as well (and Colorado?), but who knows, as it will also depend on the percentage of Hispanic GOP primary voters in some of those states.

Bush is gonna perform just as bad as Romney did in the south.

[eric82oslo]

Not good for Bush.

Yeah but he was never going to do well in Iowa. His path to the nomination (if he wins) would likely be similar to McCain in '08 (bad showing in Iowa, but comes back strong in NH/maybe SC/FL)

The current schedule is not very good for Bush. Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado Caucus, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota Caucus, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia all currently are scheduled to go after South Carolina/Nevada but before Florida. I only see 3-4 possible wins in there for Jeb!.

I see between 8 and 10 actually. Southern states + liberal states are exactly the places where Bush's brand is the strongest. Most of those states are either Southern or liberal. States where Bush will probably do really bad are places like Wyoming, Idaho, Kansas, the Dakotas, Indiana, Iowa, Utah, etcetera I think. Could probably add Oregon, Alaska, Nevada and Arizona as well (and Colorado?), but who knows, as it will also depend on the percentage of Hispanic GOP primary voters in some of those states.

Bush is gonna perform just as bad as Romney did in the south.

All state polls so far have showed that he's doing great there. I initially thought it would only/mostly be in Florida, but in fact it's all over the region.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush's weakest group is "very conservative" voters which have a stronger role in Iowa and, despite what early polls showed, the South, though he's apt to do better in states with a lot of veterans e.g. the Carolinas. But even if he's only won in New England, and especially, if he's won NE and Virginia, he's still the frontrunner for Florida provided Rubio is finished

[Maxwell]

5% for Paul seems abnormally low for him in IA. Outlier or warning sign?

To me it always seemed like New Hampshire was the better of the two states for him.

[Bull Moose Base]

5% for Paul seems abnormally low for him in IA. Outlier or warning sign?

To me it always seemed like New Hampshire was the better of the two states for him.

He may be one of the people hurt by Trump, who like Paul, appeals to more secular Tea Partiers.

[eric82oslo]

Bush's weakest group is "very conservative" voters which have a stronger role in Iowa and, despite what early polls showed, the South, though he's apt to do better in states with a lot of veterans e.g. the Carolinas. But even if he's only won in New England, and especially, if he's won NE and Virginia, he's still the frontrunner for Florida provided Rubio is finished

Almost all of the Southern states have lots of military facilities.

[Likely Voter]

5% for Paul seems abnormally low for him in IA. Outlier or warning sign?

To me it always seemed like New Hampshire was the better of the two states for him.

Ron Paul in 2012 came in a close second in IA with 21% of the vote. IA should be a big state for Rand, especially with the supposed great ground game Team Paul should have. A year ago he was talked about as maybe the only guy who could win both IA and NH, now I would be shocked if he got into top 3 in either. He needs to do something to get back into the mix.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5% for Paul seems abnormally low for him in IA. Outlier or warning sign?

To me it always seemed like New Hampshire was the better of the two states for him.

Ron Paul in 2012 came in a close second in IA with 21% of the vote. IA should be a big state for Rand, especially with the supposed great ground game Team Paul should have. A year ago he was talked about as maybe the only guy who could win both IA and NH, now I would be shocked if he got into top 3 in either. He needs to do something to get back into the mix.

Paul's 21% in Iowa got him 3rd actually. Santorum and Romney got 25% each. Paul placed 2nd in NH, with 23% to Romney's 39%.