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  PPP-National: Trump +2
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Author Topic: PPP-National: Trump +2  (Read 3877 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 22, 2015, 05:33:28 pm »

19% to Walker's 17%, 12% Jeb, 10% for Carson/Rubio.
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Castro
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2015, 05:40:05 pm »

I believe this means Perry and Kasich are now tied at 1.8 for the 10th spot. The last poll left before the debate is probably Quinnipiac (unless there's a surprise poll). Their last poll had Kasich at 2 and Perry at 1. If Kasich is up 2 to 1 against Perry in their next poll, he will have clinched the 10th spot with 1.8 to Perry's 1.7. Either way, someone will be pretty upset.
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Milquetoast
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2015, 05:55:40 pm »

Ugh. There is literally nothing Trump can say that his fans wont forgive. This is getting rediculous

It says more about the other Republican candidates than it does about Donald Trump and his band of loonies.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2015, 06:15:29 pm »

Trump 19%
Walker 17%
Bush 12%
Carson 10%
Rubio 10%
Huckabee 8%
Cruz 4%
Fiorina 4%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 3%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%
Graham 0%
Pataki 0%
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2015, 06:20:31 pm »

Terrible poll for Bush.  The supposed front runner is in third place.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2015, 06:20:58 pm »

Who leads among...?

Tea Party: Walker
not Tea Party: Trump
not sure if Tea Party: Trump
Evangelical: Walker
not Evangelical: Trump
moderate: Trump
somewhat conservative: Walker
very conservative: Trump
men: Trump
women: Trump
age 18-45: Trump
age 46-65: Trump
age 65+: Walker
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Retrumplican
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2015, 06:55:49 pm »

Terrible poll for Bush.  The supposed front runner is in third place.

Trump is the frontrunner.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2015, 07:04:57 pm »

Favorability Numbers among own party:

Walker: 58/15
Rubio: 54/19
Carson: 53/19
Cruz: 51/21
Perry: 50/20
Huckabee: 49/30
Santorum: 48/19
Trump: 48/39
Jindal: 43/17
Paul: 42/30
Bush: 41/35
Fiorina: 38/22
Kasich: 29/15
Christie: 25/56
Graham: 21/33
Pataki: 12/29
Gilmore: 4/14

Santorum has 40/34 favorability numbers among very liberal primary voters. No idea how.

24% of Trump supporters disagree with his McCain comments.

Primary voters agree 53/42 that all candidates should be included in debates, agree 50/36 that electability is more important than conservatism, disagree 50/22 with Trump's McCain comments, support universal firearm background checks 83/11, and support a minimum wage increase 52/44. 22% of the electorate is Tea Party, 50% is Evangelical.

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Castro
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2015, 07:10:11 pm »

Terrible poll for Bush.  The supposed front runner is in third place.

Trump is the frontrunner.

The Trumprunner
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2015, 09:49:54 pm »

I believe this means Perry and Kasich are now tied at 1.8 for the 10th spot. The last poll left before the debate is probably Quinnipiac (unless there's a surprise poll). Their last poll had Kasich at 2 and Perry at 1. If Kasich is up 2 to 1 against Perry in their next poll, he will have clinched the 10th spot with 1.8 to Perry's 1.7. Either way, someone will be pretty upset.

PPP are unlikely to be included. FOX is likely going to only use live phone polls (that is the assumption being used by NYTimes, WaPo, 538, NBC news and others). That being said, I suspect there will be 5 live phone polls released before the Fox debate.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2015, 11:37:54 pm »

Good showing for Kasich.

I hope he makes the top ten for the first debate.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2015, 06:58:48 am »

Who leads among...?

Tea Party: Walker
not Tea Party: Trump
not sure if Tea Party: Trump
Evangelical: Walker
not Evangelical: Trump
moderate: Trump
somewhat conservative: Walker
very conservative: Trump
men: Trump
women: Trump
age 18-45: Trump
age 46-65: Trump
age 65+: Walker


Not quite the expected results one would expect. Younger, non-tea party, not evangelical people going the most for Trump. I think its pretty clear that after the first debate (and after the Republican Party declares an all out war to get rid of him) his irrational support from the 'I don't like government' crowd will fade away. People like his rhetoric, not his non-existent policy positions. Unfortunately, so long as the media keeps the spotlight on him, he'll do well in the polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2015, 12:53:18 pm »

With this poll, Kasich has pulled within the TOP-10 in the RCP average (he's tied for 10th with Perry, but Kasich's numbers are going up - while Perry's are going down).
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2015, 01:59:12 pm »

With this poll, Kasich has pulled within the TOP-10 in the RCP average (he's tied for 10th with Perry, but Kasich's numbers are going up - while Perry's are going down).

Fox will probably not count this poll, as it is not live phone.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2015, 02:08:38 pm »

With this poll, Kasich has pulled within the TOP-10 in the RCP average (he's tied for 10th with Perry, but Kasich's numbers are going up - while Perry's are going down).

Fox will probably not count this poll, as it is not live phone.
It's more about if what this poll shows is reflected elsewhere.

My hunch is that Perry and Kasich make the debate, while Christie does not. Perry's been getting good publicity and Kasich is improving his name recognition, while likely to benefit from an announcement bump. Things have been relatively quiet for Christie, who seems to be on the bubble with notably worse results than Carson, Huckabee, Cruz and Paul.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #15 on: July 23, 2015, 02:20:59 pm »

Ugh. There is literally nothing Trump can say that his fans wont forgive. This is getting rediculous
Says more about a lot of the Republican voter base, sadly for this country.
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Mynheer Peeperkorn
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2015, 07:19:22 pm »

Terrific news. Go Trump!
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Simfan34
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2015, 07:47:08 pm »

Terrible poll for Bush.  The supposed front runner is in third place.

Maybe not so terrible. The pressure on him will be reduced, leaving Walker and Trump to wilt on their own time.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2015, 11:43:11 am »

Ugh. There is literally nothing Trump can say that his fans wont forgive. This is getting rediculous

I don't think it's that his fans wouldn't "forgive" so much as that his fans aren't the type of people who had much respect for John McCain or Lindsey Graham to begin with.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2016, 10:56:04 pm »

Even in July 2015, the polls were still junk. Walker in second!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2016, 11:30:19 pm »

Re: The discussion here about whether Kasich would qualify for the first debate: He was seen as being on the bubble at one point, wasn't he?

If Kasich hadn't made it into the first debate, would he have gotten trapped in a feedback loop of poor poll performance, where he never qualifies for the 1st tier debates, which probably means that he never gets a chance to break out in the New Hampshire polls, and ends up dropping out after New Hampshire, or at least some time before Super Tuesday?  How does the race unfold if Kasich drops out early, rather than hanging around forever?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2016, 10:32:26 am »

Re: The discussion here about whether Kasich would qualify for the first debate: He was seen as being on the bubble at one point, wasn't he?

If Kasich hadn't made it into the first debate, would he have gotten trapped in a feedback loop of poor poll performance, where he never qualifies for the 1st tier debates, which probably means that he never gets a chance to break out in the New Hampshire polls, and ends up dropping out after New Hampshire, or at least some time before Super Tuesday?  How does the race unfold if Kasich drops out early, rather than hanging around forever?


Not only this, but if Rubio didn't have his gaffe at the New Hampshire debate, Kasich probably wouldn't have been in 2nd place in New Hampshire, possibly leading him to drop out. So fascinating how little events can change history.
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mencken
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2016, 11:20:24 am »

Re: The discussion here about whether Kasich would qualify for the first debate: He was seen as being on the bubble at one point, wasn't he?

If Kasich hadn't made it into the first debate, would he have gotten trapped in a feedback loop of poor poll performance, where he never qualifies for the 1st tier debates, which probably means that he never gets a chance to break out in the New Hampshire polls, and ends up dropping out after New Hampshire, or at least some time before Super Tuesday?  How does the race unfold if Kasich drops out early, rather than hanging around forever?


Perry's inclusion in the first debate gives his campaign just enough life to hang on until Iowa, costing Cruz a needed victory. Kasich's IRL supporters overwhelmingly gravitate toward Bush in New Hampshire, which combined with Cruz's failure and Rubio's implosion allows Bush to finish a strong second in the state. Bush then gets slaughtered for the remainder of the primary season.
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