PPP-National: Trump +2

[ElectionsGuy]

Who leads among...?

Tea Party: Walker
not Tea Party: Trump
not sure if Tea Party: Trump
Evangelical: Walker
not Evangelical: Trump
moderate: Trump
somewhat conservative: Walker
very conservative: Trump
men: Trump
women: Trump
age 18-45: Trump
age 46-65: Trump
age 65+: Walker

Not quite the expected results one would expect. Younger, non-tea party, not evangelical people going the most for Trump. I think its pretty clear that after the first debate (and after the Republican Party declares an all out war to get rid of him) his irrational support from the 'I don't like government' crowd will fade away. People like his rhetoric, not his non-existent policy positions. Unfortunately, so long as the media keeps the spotlight on him, he'll do well in the polls.

[ElectionsGuy]

Re: The discussion here about whether Kasich would qualify for the first debate: He was seen as being on the bubble at one point, wasn't he?

If Kasich hadn't made it into the first debate, would he have gotten trapped in a feedback loop of poor poll performance, where he never qualifies for the 1st tier debates, which probably means that he never gets a chance to break out in the New Hampshire polls, and ends up dropping out after New Hampshire, or at least some time before Super Tuesday?  How does the race unfold if Kasich drops out early, rather than hanging around forever?

Not only this, but if Rubio didn't have his gaffe at the New Hampshire debate, Kasich probably wouldn't have been in 2nd place in New Hampshire, possibly leading him to drop out. So fascinating how little events can change history.