Re: The discussion here about whether Kasich would qualify for the first debate: He was seen as being on the bubble at one point, wasn't he?
If Kasich hadn't made it into the first debate, would he have gotten trapped in a feedback loop of poor poll performance, where he never qualifies for the 1st tier debates, which probably means that he never gets a chance to break out in the New Hampshire polls, and ends up dropping out after New Hampshire, or at least some time before Super Tuesday? How does the race unfold if Kasich drops out early, rather than hanging around forever?
Perry's inclusion in the first debate gives his campaign just enough life to hang on until Iowa, costing Cruz a needed victory. Kasich's IRL supporters overwhelmingly gravitate toward Bush in New Hampshire, which combined with Cruz's failure and Rubio's implosion allows Bush to finish a strong second in the state. Bush then gets slaughtered for the remainder of the primary season.
