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Author Topic: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41  (Read 1373 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: July 22, 2015, 10:46:53 pm »

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-ayotte-holds-small-lead-over-hassan-in-possible-us-senate-matchup/34299356

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/34300810/data/1/-/14g1q5b/-/GSP-Ayotte-Hassan-Guinta.pdf
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48% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, 25% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 8% are neutral and 19% don’t know enough about her to say. Ayotte’s net favorability rating is +23%, up from +20% in May.

Senior senator Jeanne Shaheen remains popular in the Granite State. Currently, 56% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 32% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 5% are neutral and 6% don’t know enough about her to say. Shaheen’s net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +24%, down from +27% in May.

I think Jeanne's higher favorability ratings bode well for Hillary.
Ayotte is moderate enough that NH doesn't feel like kicking her out, even if they are more aligned with Hassan politically.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2015, 03:33:26 am »

Why do they keep polling NH, Hassan has made no move on running.
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Green Line
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2015, 08:24:25 am »

Splendid! Hassan cant stop the funk.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2015, 10:26:58 am »

Dems certainly dont need NH in order to win senate.
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mds32
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2015, 04:54:43 pm »

4 polls in a row showing Ayotte leading 6-11 points.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2015, 04:58:35 pm »

Hassan trails in the bluer district, yet leads in the purple one. Weird poll. UNH is always strange.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2015, 05:00:58 pm »

Dems certainly dont need NH in order to win senate.

No, but with Toomey significantly leading Sestak in PPP surveys, Burr having no clear challenger, Portman having a large collection of attack ads used by Kasich in the 2010 gubernatorial election that he (Portman) can simply (re-)attack Strickland with, and McCain likely to survive his primary, dems shouldn't let NH 'fall by the wayside'.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2015, 05:39:43 pm »

Dems certainly dont need NH in order to win senate.

No, but with Toomey significantly leading Sestak in PPP surveys, Burr having no clear challenger, Portman having a large collection of attack ads used by Kasich in the 2010 gubernatorial election that he (Portman) can simply (re-)attack Strickland with, and McCain likely to survive his primary, dems shouldn't let NH 'fall by the wayside'.

Toomey leads by four pts in last PPP survey.  And 2 QU polls in a row shows Strickland competetive.  I think Senate is still a tossup.
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Green Line
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2015, 05:43:55 pm »

Without NH its hard to see Democrats taking the Senate, especially if Heck wins in Nevada. 
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2015, 05:46:46 pm »

Pa, OH, WI, IL and FL.  I am encouraged by McGinty in Pa Senate race. Net 5 and lose NV. IL, FL and WI are lean takeovers.

I wouldnt rely om those ratings for senate like Sabato, because Hilary or Dems will surely win IL, WI and Pa and competetive in OH and CO.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2015, 05:49:24 pm by OC »Logged
whitesox130
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2015, 06:07:55 pm »

Bottom line in New Hampshire: Hillary must win the state by a significant margin for Ayotte to be ousted. A close race will make it difficult, and a GOP win at the top of the ticket makes taking this seat nearly impossible for Democrats.

Bottom line nationally: As things stand now, Democrats probably need to win the presidency to win the Senate. Otherwise, they will have a hard time getting past 3-4 pickups, and they would need 5 for an outright majority without the presidency. Illinois and Wisconsin are favorable, Florida is very close, and they have plausible chances in a few other states, but not if they don't win the presidency.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2015, 03:43:11 pm »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by University of New Hampshire on 2015-07-20

Summary: D: 41%, R: 47%, I: 1%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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