AZ-Sen: Fabrizio+Lee (R-Chamber of Commerce): McCain dominating, far above water

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/RobEngstrom/status/620602132379639808

McCain 53
Kirkpatrick 38

Looks reasonable... until you get to the 56-37 approval rating. And you realize the 56% is the approval side.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised if they were cooking numbers at this point.

[Skye]

When did his approvals get so high? What about the primary? I need more info

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCain does not have 56% approval. Could this polling company be any more retarded?

[SATW]

McCain does not have 56% approval. Could this polling company be any more retarded?

it could be gravis

[MT Treasurer]

This poll is junk, but this seat will only flip to the Democrats if McCain loses the primary.

[windjammer]

This poll is junk, but this seat will only flip to the Democrats if McCain loses the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only PPP polls has AZ close, where McCain was leading by six, anyways.

[Xing]

Well, pretty clear what kind of bias this polling company has...

[free my dawg]

This poll is junk, but this seat will only flip to the Democrats if McCain loses the primary.

Naturally - that was a given.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Don't forget that Kirkpatrick was supposed to be DOA in 2014, but won by 5 points. And while Ward can't beat McCain, she can drive up his negatives and give him an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary. McCain defeated Hayworth by 25 in 2010, but this time he probably won't even clear 20 points.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Incumbency can turn into a disadavantage - There's a reason why Chris Dodd, George Voinovich, and Joe Lieberman didn't run for re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

What local issues? He's a Senator.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Right, because Mary Landrieu's and Mark Begich's 'local issues' campaigns worked so well

[MT Treasurer]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

What local issues? He's a Senator.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/mccain-run-reelection-2016-n336511

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Right, because Mary Landrieu's and Mark Begich's 'local issues' campaigns worked so well

Both of them outperformed expectations. And how on earth did Landrieu run a "local issues" campaign?

She heavily ran on the fact that she was the chair of the energy committee and could get results for LA there.

Also, while Landrieu outperformed expectations in the runoff, she underperformed expectations in the jungle primary.

[free my dawg]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Right, because Mary Landrieu's and Mark Begich's 'local issues' campaigns worked so well

Landrieu and Begich were also on ultra-hostile territory.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump has been skewering John McCain.  That will hurt.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Right, because Mary Landrieu's and Mark Begich's 'local issues' campaigns worked so well

Landrieu and Begich were also on ultra-hostile territory.

Begich almost won re-election in 2014 in an R+10 state against the best possible Republican candidate. Begich's campaign was a roaring success.