Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[Zanas]

Wow, LAE really fell flat, didn't it?

Well yeah, nobody's really adventurous. They're slowly picking up though, as more urban areas are coming in, I guess. It's not completely impossible they'll end up barely above the 3% threshold.

[Zanas]

So Syriza is clearly overperforming, and seems to be ending with 7 pts more than ND, give or take. ND has already conceded defeat. Syriza is looking at 144 seats right now, not too shabby. It could allow them to form a coalition with only Potami, who has dramatically fallen by the way. This would avoid the Pasok catastrophe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So at the end of the day, the results look almost identical to January. The only major difference is that SYRIZA got rid of its left-wing.

Why did Potami lose so much, BTW? You'd have thought Tsipras' acceptance of austerity would have proved them right.

[politicus]

So at the end of the day, the results look almost identical to January. The only major difference is that SYRIZA got rid of its left-wing.

Which is kind of a big deal.

Not much use for Potami with a moderated Syriza and a more appealing Pasok. But there may be more to it.

[Zanas]

So at the end of the day, the results look almost identical to January. The only major difference is that SYRIZA got rid of its left-wing.

Why did Potami lose so much, BTW? You'd have thought Tsipras' acceptance of austerity would have proved them right.

Well, I've heard that getting rid of LAE actually could help Syriza recover on its centre-left and become a classic big-tent centre-left party. Potami voters seem to have thought that way.

Anyway, anti-austerity MPs are now reduced to fascists and stalinists. Good call...

[VPH]

Wasn't KKE supposed to surge?

[Zanas]

Wasn't KKE supposed to surge?

KKE doesn't do the "surging" or the "plummetting" thing. They just... are stable, at 5 to 5.5, always, at any time.

[VPH]

Did the Union of Centrists draw some To Potami voters?

[jaichind]

Does not look like LAE is going to make it.  They been stable at 2.82 to 2.84 for a while now.  Looks like everyone that crossed Tsipras bit the dust this election.  

[jaichind]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Did the Union of Centrists draw some To Potami voters?

Nah, the name is, erm, misleading.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

Tsipras should seriously consider swapping them with Potami. The advantages of not being bound by Potami are gone now that they're bound by the new agreement anyway.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The sources I've read also says that both SYRIZA and ANEL has confirmed they'll continue in government together. :/

[jaichind]

Looks like the decline of PASOK continues.  One we take into account of PASOK-DP, KIDISO, and Greens-DIMAR, the PASOK-DIMAR list lost a bunch of support from Jan 2015.

[jaichind]

This election result will be fairly positive for European markets as a whole.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This election result will be fairly positive for European markets as a whole.

Who gives a sh*t?

[jaichind]

Kudos to SYRIZA for their effective transformation and evolution from a revolutionary movement into a electoral machine  and governing party.  Its one thing to win or do very well  in a high turnout wave election based on widespread anger at the establishment.  It is quite another to win in a low turnout election in a climate of apathy.  To win the latter require real grassroots organization with effective connections with local vested interests and related support groups.  That   SYRIZA can do well in such an election means they have matured into an effective election machine.

[VPH]

Kudos to SYRIZA for their effective transformation and evolution from a revolutionary movement into a electoral machine  and governing party.  Its one thing to win or do very well  in a high turnout wave election based on widespread anger at the establishment.  It is quite another to win in a low turnout election in a climate of apathy.  To win the latter require real grassroots organization with effective connections with local vested interests and related support groups.  That   SYRIZA can do well in such an election means they have matured into an effective election machine.

I think they're becoming the main big tent left of centre force and will continue to consolidate the center left over the next few years.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

Tsipras should seriously consider swapping them with Potami. The advantages of not being bound by Potami are gone now that they're bound by the new agreement anyway.

There's absolutely no way SYRIZA will work with Potami for two reasons.  Potami has attacked SYRIZA for how they have handled the refugee crisis by taking a very right-wing position on the issue.
The SYRIZA government also stopped the gold mining project in Skouries which had led to enormous environmental devastation.  The company that is running the project is partially owned by the Bobolas family, the oligarchs who are major stakeholders of Mega Channel (the Greek Fox News) where Theodorakis worked.  Potami after the Tsipras government resigned tried to make the Thanou-government re-open the gold mines, which has caused more tension between the two parties.  
The Ecologist Greens who are SYRIZA allies have vetoed having Potami in any government coalition.

There's still a chance that PASOK and DIMAR will join the coalition (something DIMAR would like) but it's unlikely since former PASOK leader Venizelos wants nothing to do with SYRIZA and he still has a lot of power in the party.

[politicus]

Did the Union of Centrists draw some To Potami voters?

Nah, the name is, erm, misleading.

There is BKs argument that To Potami was the non-ideological protest option in January, a role which UoC usurped. Potami got a lot of low info voters last time, so not completely unlikely, but their leader is just such a loon, that I doubt that effect was large. Even if Theodorakis is not exactly the apex of sanity.

[politicus]

Looks like it will be SYRIZA-ANEL again.

Tsipras should seriously consider swapping them with Potami. The advantages of not being bound by Potami are gone now that they're bound by the new agreement anyway.

There's absolutely no way SYRIZA will work with Potami for two reasons.  Potami has attacked SYRIZA for how they have handled the refugee crisis by taking a very right-wing position on the issue.
The SYRIZA government also stopped the gold mining project in Skouries which had led to enormous environmental devastation.  The company that is running the project is partially owned by the Bobolas family, the oligarchs who are major stakeholders of Mega Channel (the Greek Fox News) where Theodorakis worked.  Potami after the Tsipras government resigned tried to make the Thanou-government re-open the gold mines, which has caused more tension between the two parties.  
The Ecologist Greens who are SYRIZA allies have vetoed having Potami in any government coalition.

There's still a chance that PASOK and DIMAR will join the coalition (something DIMAR would like) but it's unlikely since former PASOK leader Venizelos wants nothing to do with SYRIZA and he still has a lot of power in the party.

Going anti-Green was a mistake for Potami. It defies the Social Liberal middle class feel good-party role they should have aimed for. Being anti-refugee seems counterproductive as well.

Still, when Syriza can ally with ANEL I doubt xenophobia in itself is a total dealbreaker for them, but the nasty attacks likely were.

[politicus]

Kudos to SYRIZA for their effective transformation and evolution from a revolutionary movement into a electoral machine  and governing party.  Its one thing to win or do very well  in a high turnout wave election based on widespread anger at the establishment.  It is quite another to win in a low turnout election in a climate of apathy.  To win the latter require real grassroots organization with effective connections with local vested interests and related support groups.  That   SYRIZA can do well in such an election means they have matured into an effective election machine.

I think they're becoming the main big tent left of centre force and will continue to consolidate the center left over the next few years.

Yeah, they are being Pasokified, that much is obvious.

[politicus]

Why did Potami lose so much, BTW? You'd have thought Tsipras' acceptance of austerity would have proved them right.

After reading some comments and doing some thinking:

Three effects:

1) sh**tty campaign + uninspired leader - especially debate performance.

2) Losing votes to Pasok, which then lost moderate left wingers to new "responsible" and moderated Syriza (leftwards transfer).

3) Losing votes directly to moderate Syriza.

4) BKs idea that they lost the non-ideological protest vote to Union of Centrists.

My hypothesis is a mix between 1 and 2 were the main factors.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I imagine the 50 seat bonus also trapped a lot of the mini parties, especially Potami and LAE.

Of course, I dramatically failed in my prediction that AnTARSYA would surge.

[politicus]

I imagine the 50 seat bonus also trapped a lot of the mini parties, especially Potami and LAE.

LAE, sure, but the former Potami voters were people that didn't care last time, so it can't explain their loss. ND has been more moderate this time, less reason to fear them for centrists than when they pandered to the "floating" right wingers last time.