Is Orthodox Judaism on the brink of an historic schism?

[DavidB.]

Surely, the Modern Orthodox movement in the US will increasingly see people move to the "left", to movements like "Open Orthodoxy".

However, in Israel, movements that want to change Modern Orthodoxy in Israel from within are seen as fringe movements by most people - they don't have a lot of followers. Even though Haaretz would love to see a schism happen, I don't think something like that is actually going to happen in Israel (or outside the US, for that matter). Take for instance the "haredi women party". Lots of buzz in progressive media, but it wasn't an actual thing in the community itself and of course it didn't get many votes; most people in the haredi community itself don't want this. Of course, this thread is not about haredim but about modern orthodoxy, but I feel that this whole "schism" idea is not an actual thing in the Israeli Modern Orthodox community - it is something that people outside of this community want to be an actual thing.

But yes, in the US, something like that might be possible; many communities are flirting with the idea of davening without mechitzah, gay marriage and the like. We all know of the numerical decline of the Conservative movement in the US, so I'm not sure why people would think such a movement to the left of modern orthodoxy would be sustainable in the long term, but I understand where the underlying ideas are coming from.

[DavidB.]

It is, however, not unlikely that the worldwide surge of the Chabad movement will eventually place "Orthodox Judaism" in an awkward position. Though as long as Chabad tones down the Meshichist talk about the Rebbe a bit, it doesn't have to become a real problem.

[DavidB.]

Surely, the Modern Orthodox movement in the US will increasingly see people move to the "left", to movements like "Open Orthodoxy".

However, in Israel, movements that want to change Modern Orthodoxy in Israel from within are seen as fringe movements by most people - they don't have a lot of followers. Even though Haaretz would love to see a schism happen, I don't think something like that is actually going to happen in Israel (or outside the US, for that matter). Take for instance the "haredi women party". Lots of buzz in progressive media, but it wasn't an actual thing in the community itself and of course it didn't get many votes; most people in the haredi community itself don't want this. Of course, this thread is not about haredim but about modern orthodoxy, but I feel that this whole "schism" idea is not an actual thing in the Israeli Modern Orthodox community - it is something that people outside of this community want to be an actual thing.

But yes, in the US, something like that might be possible; many communities are flirting with the idea of davening without mechitzah, gay marriage and the like. We all know of the numerical decline of the Conservative movement in the US, so I'm not sure why people would think such a movement to the left of modern orthodoxy would be sustainable in the long term, but I understand where the underlying ideas are coming from.

What would be the difference between "open Orthodoxy," or whatever one wants to call the segment of Orthodox Jews in the US who break off, and Conservative Jews?

Good question... Other than the obvious organizational differences, I wouldn't really know for sure... These Open Orthodox people will probably be somewhat more hesitant to "amend" traditions than Conservative congregations, who are used to it and have found their own "status-quo". So they would be somewhat more inclined to follow halachah (and "orthodoxy") on most some issues, but I'm not sure at all if that will be the case in 15 years.