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April 23, 2024, 09:25:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post random maps here (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 988118 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #50 on: December 26, 2014, 01:02:56 PM »
« edited: December 26, 2014, 01:17:49 PM by SPC »
Nixon's path to victory, assuming that conspiracy theories regarding Illinois and Texas are correct, and Henry Irwin opts not to send the election to a Democratic House*:



Richard Nixon 50.4% 270
John Kennedy 48.9% 253
Harry Byrd 14

*Although Congress at the time consisted of 17 Republican delegations, 17 Democratic delegations (counting Missouri and Kentucky), and 12 Dixiecratic delegations (although Johnson could likely manipulate the Texas delegation to support Kennedy). In any case, Irwin's sway could be eliminated by giving Michigan to Nixon, requiring an additional 0.4% national swing.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #51 on: December 28, 2014, 06:10:42 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2014, 01:41:08 AM by SPC »
1976: Reagan/Schweiker vs Carter/Mondale

326-212

1980: Ford/Dole vs Carter/Mondale

352-186

1984: Dole/Kemp vs Glenn/Graham

346-192

1988: Dole/Kemp vs Gore/Bradley

276-262

1992: Kemp/Simpson vs Gore/Bradley

369-169

1996: McCain/Quayle vs Bradley/Miller

304-234

2000: Romney/Whitman vs Bradley/Nunn

291-247

2004: Romney/Whitman vs Edwards/Vilsack

399-139

2008: Steele/Pawlenty vs Bayh/Jones

324-214
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #52 on: January 02, 2015, 06:03:35 PM »
Quote from: SPC on December 12, 2014, 02:19:45 AM


Reagan 1980 vs Romney 2012

(>30% corresponds to less than 3.6%, which is the difference between Reagan's percentage and Romney's percentage. All other shades are increments of 5%)

The same map, but this time comparing their performance with white voters:
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #53 on: January 03, 2015, 11:18:47 AM »
1884 trend map:
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #54 on: January 07, 2015, 01:55:23 AM »


Bob Dole 1996 39,198,755
George Bush 1992 39,104,550
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #55 on: January 09, 2015, 11:25:09 AM »


Bush 2004 (48.5%) vs Obama 2012 (51.5%)

The closest states are Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Interestingly, Obama wins North Carolina by a greater margin than Michigan, and Virginia and Colorado by larger margins than Oregon and Minnesota.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
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« Reply #56 on: January 20, 2015, 02:14:31 AM »


Willkie 1940 22,348,343 49.5% 280
Roosevelt 1932 22,821,513 50.5% 251
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #57 on: January 20, 2015, 11:36:23 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2015, 12:16:03 AM by SPC »


Coolidge 51% 323
Davis 23% 126
LaFollette 25% 72



Hoover 48% 397
Smith 25% 69
Shipstead 26% 65


Borah 34% 238
Garner 37% 190
Hoover 28% 103
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #58 on: January 31, 2015, 12:13:57 PM »
« Edited: January 31, 2015, 12:55:50 PM by SPC »
2012



Governor Mitt Romney / Congressman Paul Ryan 49.8% 285
President Barack Obama / Vice-President Joe Biden 48.5% 253

2016



President Mitt Romney / Vice-President Paul Ryan 50.9% 295
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton / Senator Tim Kaine 47.4% 243
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
Latvia


« Reply #59 on: February 22, 2015, 05:53:10 PM »


2014 Republican gubernatorial candidates vs 2006 Democratic gubernatorial candidates

So about Walker, Rauner, LePage, and Scott only winning from low turnout...
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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Posts: 10,003
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« Reply #60 on: March 06, 2015, 05:33:36 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2015, 05:39:08 PM by SPC »
Best-case scenario for Republicans 2016:

Assuming:
  • Black turnout drops to 2004 levels
  • Walker outperforms Romney with whites and blacks to the same extent he did in 2014 and 2012
  • The Asian vote looks more like 2004 than 2008/2012
  • No change in either Hispanic vote breakdown or growth rate



Walker 51.7% 348
Clinton 46.4% 190




Courtesy of 538
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