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December 12, 2019, 06:57:55 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  Post random maps here
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 846504 times)
DPKdebator
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« Reply #5825 on: February 12, 2017, 05:22:19 pm »

Here's what the election would look like if every Johnson and McMullin voter went for Trump and every Stein voter went for Clinton:

Colorado is about a .5% difference, and Trump leads the PV by .65%. If this was calculated without McMullin, Clinton would have won NM by about 850 votes.
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Peebs
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« Reply #5826 on: February 12, 2017, 06:00:43 pm »

Bush 2004 vs. Trump 2016

George W. Bush / Dick Cheney - 334/49.62%
Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 204/50.38%
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #5827 on: February 12, 2017, 06:17:06 pm »

Anderson 1980 vs. Clark 1980 vs. Perot 1996

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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #5828 on: February 12, 2017, 07:41:56 pm »


Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew: 47,168,710 - 52.12% - 287 EV
Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey: Johnson: 43,127,041 - 47.65% - 251 EV
Unpledged Electors: 210,732 - 0.23%

There are tons of razor-thin wins on both sides. Johnson loses his home state by about sixteen points because McGovern cratered so badly there, but if he were to win it he would take the election.

Also, Mississippi is more Republican than D.C. is Democratic Tongue
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Peebs
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« Reply #5829 on: February 12, 2017, 07:56:52 pm »

Last year Clinton got more votes than the Republican nominee:
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #5830 on: February 13, 2017, 09:36:07 am »

If every third party voter voted for Clinton:

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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5831 on: February 13, 2017, 01:07:47 pm »

If every third party voter voted for Trump:
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Peebs
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« Reply #5832 on: February 13, 2017, 02:54:01 pm »

Obama vs. Romney vs. Trump vs. Clinton

228-177-107-26
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #5833 on: February 14, 2017, 09:26:58 pm »

Ignore DC if you can't make it work in your explanation:
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #5834 on: February 15, 2017, 02:18:58 pm »

An Idea for a timeline I might write.
2020 Presidential Election:


Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)/ Governor Matthew Damon (D-MA): 56.4%, 375 EVs
Acting President Michael Pence (R-IN)/ Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 42.0%, 163 EVs
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Cаквояжник
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« Reply #5835 on: February 15, 2017, 03:49:08 pm »

1984:

With Vice President Lodge's health declining, Nixon replaced him with Jack Kemp.  He also decided to run for a seventh term.  The Democrats nominated Eugene McCarthy for a third time, as he was the only person who was able to even come close to defeating Nixon.  He chose George McGovern as his running mate, just like in 1968.  However, McCarthy failed to gain as much traction as he did in '68 or '76 and it was clear that Nixon was going to win in a landslide.  McCarthy failed to win a single state.



Nixon/Kemp 61%, 535 EV
McCarthy/McGovern 38%, 3 EV


1988:

Nixon decides to seek an eighth term as President.  The Democrats, in an historic move, nominated Jesse Jackson for President.  He chose Al Gore as his running mate.  The polls consistently showed Nixon was an insurmountable lead and few had any doubts about the final outcome.



Nixon/Kemp 63%, 535 EV
Jackson/Gore 36%, 3 EV
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bagelman
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« Reply #5836 on: February 16, 2017, 12:47:48 pm »



If every Trump voter voted Johnson instead

334-196
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fortitudo94
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« Reply #5837 on: February 17, 2017, 09:54:16 am »

Does anyone know how to crack demo or where Can I get the full version 2016 or also older version?

PM please.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #5838 on: February 17, 2017, 11:01:34 am »

Elections since 1980 if each state voted the way it trended.


Carter - 312
Reagan - 226


Mondale - 300
Reagan - 238


Dukakis - 328
Bush - 210
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mencken
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« Reply #5839 on: February 17, 2017, 11:34:43 pm »

Donald J. Trump 62.9 M 50.4% 275 (269 in 2004)
George W. Bush 62.0 M 49.6% 263 (269 in 2004)

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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5840 on: February 18, 2017, 06:24:43 pm »

I decided to see what would happen if the county (or, in the case of NY, NYC) with the most votes for Hillary in each state that she won was removed. The redraw app doesn't take CDs into account, so those are ignored here (though Hillary most likely still wins ME-01). Due to the magic of apportionment, most states actually gain EVs despite the population hemorrhage (the only ones that lose EVs are WA, CA, NV, UT, NM, MN. IL, and NY). Some states ended up being reaaaally close, like NM (around 16,000 vote difference) and NY (the difference was about 6,000 votes).

Chairman of the Trump Organization Donald J. Trump / Governor Mike Pence: 416 EV
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton / Senator Tim Kaine - 122 EV
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5841 on: February 18, 2017, 07:09:11 pm »

Here's the same idea, but with the addition of CA being removed. Note that NE has 6 EVs, but it won't let me change the number without turning on CDs.

Chairman of the Trump Organization Donald J. Trump / Governor Mike Pence: 458 EV
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton / Senator Tim Kaine - 78 EV
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Peebs
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« Reply #5842 on: February 19, 2017, 08:34:53 am »
« Edited: February 19, 2017, 08:39:35 am by Peebs »

Here's the same idea, but with the addition of CA being removed. Note that NE has 6 EVs, but it won't let me change the number without turning on CDs.

Chairman of the Trump Organization Donald J. Trump / Governor Mike Pence: 458 EV
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton / Senator Tim Kaine - 78 EV
FTFY.
EDIT: Noticed you forgot to change Maine to 4.
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Peebs
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« Reply #5843 on: February 19, 2017, 11:52:55 am »








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jojoju1998
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« Reply #5844 on: February 19, 2017, 04:56:32 pm »

2020 US presidential election

President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 331 EV 49.00%
Elizabeth Warren/Roy Cooper-Democratic: 207 EV 47.75%

This is exactly the same as the Mike Pence vs Sherrod Brown Map TD made for his timeline.
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AP
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« Reply #5845 on: February 19, 2017, 06:55:11 pm »


Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) - 439 EV
Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 86 EV
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) - 7 EV
CIA Officer Evan McMullin (I-UT)/CEO Mindy Finn (I-TX) - 6 EV
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Bigby
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« Reply #5846 on: February 20, 2017, 03:56:40 pm »

Tricky Dick Don't Even Need To Trick:



Fmr. Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R - CA)/Governor Spiro Agnew (R - MD): 389 EVs, 44.4% PV
Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D - NY)/Senator Eugene McCarthy (D - MN): 85 EVs, 37.4% PV
Fmr. Governor George Wallace (AI - AL)/General Curtis LeMay (AI - CA): 64 EVs, 17.5% PV

Senator Robert Kennedy narrowly survives an assassination attempt by Palestinean-American Sirhan Sirhan, making a practically magical recovery. However, President Johnson fights RFK to the bitter end,  and though Bobby clinches the nomination, President Johnson and Vice President Humphrey both give Bobby a half-hearted endorsement at best. The Democratic Establishment overlooked Bobby while Southerners and even a few Northerners sneered at him. Nixon's victory over Bobby became evident quickly as Wallace destroyed the Democrats in the South and partially in the Midwest while Nixon cruised to a nationwide success.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5847 on: February 20, 2017, 08:29:47 pm »

Here's a map of 2016 if all the coastal counties (I was somewhat inclusive with this definition, since places like Philly and Portland, OR were removed) EXCLUDING lake counties were removed:


Same thing, but with the addition of the Great Lakes counties:


Then, in addition to the above changes, in 2 stages an additional "line" of counties is removed (as in the counties that border the removed ones):
Same thing, but with the addition of the Great Lakes counties:

452 - 76
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NHI
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« Reply #5848 on: February 20, 2017, 09:18:47 pm »

Matt Santos: 272 (49%)
Arnold Vinick: 266 (50%)

Glenn Allen Walken: 310 (53%)
Matt Santos: 228 (46%)
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Peebs
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« Reply #5849 on: February 20, 2017, 09:31:03 pm »

2010 map, NHI?
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