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December 07, 2019, 04:55:44 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Tegridy Farms, Apocrypha)
  Post random maps here
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #5900 on: March 20, 2017, 03:41:26 am »
« edited: March 20, 2017, 04:02:56 am by L.D. Smith »

1960 with 60% (roughly)



JFK/LBJ: 531 EV
Nixon/Lodge 6 EV



Nixon/Lodge: 513 EV
JFK/LBJ: 16 EV
Unpledged: 6 EV
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5901 on: March 21, 2017, 07:07:03 am »

What year would this be in? It seems a lot like a future scenario.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5902 on: March 21, 2017, 04:24:06 pm »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #5903 on: March 21, 2017, 07:01:10 pm »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

I agree about Utah, but Idaho and Wyoming are small enough that a population influx could change them considerably, giving them the Colorado treatment
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #5904 on: March 21, 2017, 08:15:42 pm »

2020

Governor Steve Bullock /and/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic) 378 electors, 55% votes
President Donald Trump /and/ Vice President Mike Pence (Republican) 160 electors, 43% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 2% votes

2024

Senator Ron Johnson /and/ Representative Susan Brooks (Republican) 272 EV, 49% votes
President Kirsten Gillibrand /and/ Vice President Adam Schiff (Democratic) 266 EV, 49% votes
Others (Various) 2%
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Trans Rights Are Human Rights
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« Reply #5905 on: March 21, 2017, 08:21:30 pm »

What happens to Bullock?
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #5906 on: March 22, 2017, 12:14:34 pm »

The Curse of Tippecanoe makes a comeback.
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bagelman
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« Reply #5907 on: March 22, 2017, 07:50:24 pm »



Does Hell Exist?

Most sure it does: MS, TN (tie)

Most sure it doesn't: MA
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Senator Haslam2020
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« Reply #5908 on: March 22, 2017, 10:24:49 pm »

Another Outsider:

2020



Mr. Jon Stewart/Sen. Elizabeth Warren : 321 Electoral Votes, 49.8%
Pres. Donald Trump/VP. Mike Pence: 217 Electoral Votes, 44.0%
Others: 4.2%

Jon Stewart surprisingly wins the Democratic Nomination, defeating Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo. He destroys Trump in the debates using "dirty humor", Trump is very unpopular headed into Election Night, but keeps it surprisingly close. His roots' to the "Bernie wing" give him a very comfortable victory.

2024:



Sen. Ted Cruz/Gov. Justin Amash: 280ish Electoral Votes, 49.5%
Pres. Jon Stewart/VP Elizabeth Warren: 250ish Electoral Votes, 49.4%

Though Stewart is a popular President, the "Generation Z" voters came out to vote in droves for Cruz, due to the interesting GOP Primary. The GOP Convention was brokered in between three candidates: Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Marco Rubio, and Senator Tom Cotton. A former candidate who won a few states, Justin Amash, the Newly sworn in Governor of Michigan becomes the kingmaker for Cruz, who in exchange, gets the VP Slot. 2024 ends up a victory for the GOP, and their first popular vote victory since 2004.

2028:



Sen. Tulsi Gabbard/Sen. Jared Polis: 330ish Electoral Votes, 51.0%
Pres. Ted Cruz/VP. Justin Amash: 210ish Electoral Votes, 48.1%
Mr. Bob Iger/Fmr. Sec. Elaine Chao: 0 EV, 1.5%

Senator Gabbard narrowly wins the Democratic Nomination against Former Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards, and Missouri Senator Jason Kander. The Convention ends up being brokered and nasty, with Gabbard winning on the 5th ballot, by a couple delegates. Ted Cruz, though unpopular originally, was leading Gabbard by ten points. Ted Cruz ended up getting clobbered in the debates, feeling uncomfortable to attack Gabbard. The CEO of Disney and former Secretary Elaine Chao attempt to run a third party ticket. Initially polling at 6%, they lost their steam. This was the first election Puerto Rico was allowed to participate in. It officially became the 51st state on October 8th, 2028. All 3 Electoral Votes went to Gabbard.

The End.
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bagelman
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« Reply #5909 on: March 23, 2017, 05:24:12 pm »



No points for those who correctly guess this
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mencken
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« Reply #5910 on: March 23, 2017, 05:31:04 pm »

I did not know Nevada was now majority minority?
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Trans Rights Are Human Rights
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« Reply #5911 on: March 24, 2017, 08:24:18 am »


305-226
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bagelman
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« Reply #5912 on: March 25, 2017, 01:12:08 pm »





271-267
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #5913 on: March 25, 2017, 09:01:07 pm »

2020

Governor Steve Bullock /and/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic) 378 electors, 55% votes
President Donald Trump /and/ Vice President Mike Pence (Republican) 160 electors, 43% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 2% votes

2024

Senator Ron Johnson /and/ Representative Susan Brooks (Republican) 272 EV, 49% votes
President Kirsten Gillibrand /and/ Vice President Adam Schiff (Democratic) 266 EV, 49% votes
Others (Various) 2%

Susan Brooks??? Why?
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NHI
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« Reply #5914 on: March 26, 2017, 02:18:00 pm »

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton/Senator Barack Obama: 360 (53.1%)
Senator John McCain/Governor Tim Pawlenty: 178 (45.0%)

President Hillary Rodham Clinton/Vice President Barack Obama: 272 (50.3%)
Governor Mitt Romney/Governor Bob McDonnell: 266 (48.5%)

Vice President Barack Obama/Senator Sherrod Brown: 283 (49.2%)
Governor Bob McDonnell/Governor Sarah Palin: 255 (48.9%)

President Barack Obama/Vice President Sherrod Brown: 403 (40.2%)
Senator Charlie Crist/Governor Rick Perry: 64 (28.5%)
Congressman Keith Ellison/Dr. Jill Stein: 36 (14.8%)
Senator Rand Paul/Senator Mike Lee: 34 (15.6%)
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #5915 on: March 27, 2017, 04:35:56 pm »

1956

Estes Kefauver /and/ Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) 296 electors, 49% votes
Richard Nixon /and/ Margaret Chase Smith (Republican) 235 electors, 50% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 1% votes
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Goldwater
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« Reply #5916 on: March 28, 2017, 05:59:52 pm »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #5917 on: March 29, 2017, 11:02:32 am »

Election of 1852

Zachary Taylor /and/ Hannibal Hamlin (National Union) 210 electors, 58% votes
Franklin Pierce /and/ William O. Butler (Democratic) 10 electors, 42% votes
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5918 on: March 29, 2017, 05:28:14 pm »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?

Whiter, more college educated, slightly higher incomes compared to other states tip both Oregon and Washington to the GOP. Washington is higher income and more diverse but Oregon is whiter so they both fall into lean GOP states.

California becomes a toss up since the higher earning college educated whites and the increasing share of upscale minority groups, particularly Asians and Hispanics, start trending Republican.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #5919 on: March 29, 2017, 05:35:43 pm »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?

And, why is all of the South voting Democrat?
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NHI
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« Reply #5920 on: March 29, 2017, 10:24:23 pm »

✓ Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 276 (48.9%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 262 (49.0%)

✓ Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 355 (51.8%)
John Kerry/Tim Kaine: 183 (44.0%)
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5921 on: March 30, 2017, 08:33:11 pm »



Terry McAuliffe/Tulsi Gabbard 2020 and it would of been the same map Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren 2016
  v
Trump/Pence
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NHI
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« Reply #5922 on: March 31, 2017, 11:13:01 pm »

✓ Michael Dukakis: 272 (49.5%)
George Bush: 266 (49.4%)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5923 on: April 01, 2017, 09:08:52 am »

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Maxwell
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« Reply #5924 on: April 01, 2017, 05:06:14 pm »
« Edited: April 01, 2017, 05:18:14 pm by Maxwell »



blue = States George Wallace got over 10% of the vote
red = States George Wallace got less than 10% of the vote.

Unsurprisingly, George Wallace played very poorly on the coast and in the Northeast, but interestingly he also played very poorly in the conventionally Republican West, with some interesting performances in Idaho (they have a dark past with race) and Nevada (which I can kind of see, somehow being a little more Southern in nature than some of the other Western colonies). Closest states hovering around 10% are West Virginia, which barely breaks to join the Anti-Wallace coalition, and Michigan, which is just a hair above 10%.



blue = states Ross Perot got more than 20% of the vote
red = states Ross Perot got less than 20% of the vote

I notice there are a few inverses between Perot and Wallace. Perot performed spectacularly in the traditionally Republican west with one exception. Perot performed very poorly in the South, and interestingly also performed poorly in the rust belt with one big league exception in Ohio. The rust belt underperformance is interesting to me considering his campaign was TRADE TRADE TRADE, though maybe that wasn't an issue that resonated as hard with rust belters then. I think it has to do with the combination of TRADE TRADE TRADE with his hardline balanced budget message. I suppose WASPs like those kind of independents, so despite doing poorly overall in the Northeast (esp. New York and New Jersey), he did remarkably well in New England, particularly Maine where he got 2nd.
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