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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Flake
JacobTiver
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3775 on: July 31, 2013, 12:44:50 AM »


Bachmann/Dalrymple vs. Clinton/Castro? I'm thinking the VP nom might need to be Sebelius to get KS/NE, but this would work too.

Correct!
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3776 on: July 31, 2013, 08:28:25 AM »

Clinton/Warner v. Santorum/Walker v. Huntsman/Christie v. Paul/Amash

(D) Clinton/Warner: 469 (34.3%)
(L) Paul/Amash: 29 (23.1%)
(I) Huntsman/Christie: 21 (21.5%)
(R) Santorum/Walker: 19 (20.0%)
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3777 on: August 04, 2013, 10:35:26 AM »

1948

Fmr. Gov. Harold E. Stassen (R-MN)/Gov. Earl Warren (R-CA): 325
Pres. Harry S Truman (D-MO)/Sen. Alben Barkley (D-KY): 168
Gov. Strom Thurmond (SRD-SC)/Gov. Fielding Wright (SRD-MS): 38

1952

Pres. Harold E. Stassen (R-MN)/Vice Pres. Earl Warren (R-CA): 462
Gov. Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Sen. John Sparkman (D-AL): 69

1956

Vice Pres. Earl Warren (R-CA)/Sen. Everett Dirksen (R-IL): 362
Fmr. Gov. Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)/Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN): 169

1960

Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Sen. Hubert Humphrey (D-MN): 393
Pres. Earl Warren (R-CA)/Vice Pres. Everett Dirksen (R-IL): 144
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #3778 on: August 05, 2013, 08:04:41 PM »



HINT:  Has something to do with seniority in the United States Senate.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3779 on: August 05, 2013, 08:15:27 PM »

A hypothetical Hoover vs. Smith rematch in 1932, based off of Smith's 1928 percentages and Hoover's 1932 percentages.

For example, Smith won 45% of the vote in Connecticut in 1928 and Hoover won 48% in 1932. Adding the sum of their vote percentages gives Hoover a 51%, so he wins that state. This is how the map turned out:



Governor Al Smith (D-NY) / Senator Joseph T. Robinson (D-AR) 321 electoral votes, 50.7% of the popular vote
President Herbert Hoover (R-CA) / Vice President Charles Curtis (R-KS) 210 electoral votes, 49.3% of the popular vote.

Many states were extremely close, Illinois, Nebraska and Kentucky being decided by a margin of less than one percent.

The results were pretty surprising, I didn't expect Hoover to lose Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Upper Plains while winning West Virginia.

Smith's best state was South Carolina, where he won 93.28% of the vote.
Hoover's best state was Vermont, where he won 63.69% of the vote.

I was surprised the popular vote was as narrow as it was, considering Smith won comfortably in the electoral vote and his massive margins in the South. However, Hoover won a lot of large industrial states by fair margins, like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Many of Smith's larger states were won narrowly, like Illinois and New York.
How did you calculate that?
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #3780 on: August 05, 2013, 09:10:50 PM »

It was actually quite simple, and as a result most likely inaccurate. I suppose I didn't explain it well, so here's a better explanation.

Al Smith won 45.57% of the vote in Connecticut in 1928.

Herbert Hoover won 48.54% of the vote.

Adding these totals gives a "sum" of 94.11. To get Hoover's percentage I did 48.54÷94.11 to get 51.58%, which is actually closer to 52%. So that's about it.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #3781 on: August 05, 2013, 09:39:18 PM »

2008


Clinton/Dodd: 382 (52.8%)
McCain/Palin: 156 (46.8%)
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #3782 on: August 05, 2013, 09:55:15 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2013, 11:05:45 PM by Abbott for PM! »

2008


Clinton/Dodd: 382 (52.8%)
McCain/Palin: 156 (46.8%)

How does McCain carry CO while losing NE-2?
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #3783 on: August 05, 2013, 11:16:22 PM »

2008


Clinton/Dodd: 382 (52.8%)
McCain/Palin: 156 (46.8%)

How does McCain carry CO while losing NE-2?

NE-2 is extremely close in this scenario, as it was in real life.  Colorado, IIRC, favored McCain over Hillary but Obama over McCain.  The same may have been true with Nevada and New Mexico, but I'm not really sure.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #3784 on: August 05, 2013, 11:44:48 PM »

2008


Clinton/Dodd: 382 (52.8%)
McCain/Palin: 156 (46.8%)

How does McCain carry CO while losing NE-2?

NE-2 is extremely close in this scenario, as it was in real life.  Colorado, IIRC, favored McCain over Hillary but Obama over McCain.  The same may have been true with Nevada and New Mexico, but I'm not really sure.

Thanks for that, and thinking about it, the western states aren't Clinton's best area...
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NHI
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« Reply #3785 on: August 07, 2013, 06:06:56 PM »

2016:
Clinton/O'Malley v. Cruz/Lee

Clinton/O'Malley: 359 (53.24%)
Cruz/Lee: 179 (44.90%)
Other: 1.86%

2020:
Christie/Huntsman v. O'Malley/Grimes

Christie/Huntsman: 297 (50.37%)
O'Malley/Grimes: 241 (48.21%)
Other: 1.42%
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3786 on: August 07, 2013, 06:31:12 PM »

2016


Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT)/Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): 337
Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): 201
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NHI
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« Reply #3787 on: August 07, 2013, 07:29:51 PM »

2016


Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT)/Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): 337
Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): 201

Beautiful!
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #3788 on: August 07, 2013, 10:18:17 PM »

Surprise Jill Stein win 2012:

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Enderman
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« Reply #3789 on: August 08, 2013, 09:17:46 AM »


Not so beautiful....
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Goodwin
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« Reply #3790 on: August 08, 2013, 02:51:06 PM »

2012


Romney/Ryan 273 (50.7%)
Obama/Biden  265  (48.3%)
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #3791 on: August 08, 2013, 06:26:19 PM »



President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE) 269 electoral votes, 48.7% of the popular vote
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) 269 electoral votes, 49.3% of the popular vote
Other 0 electoral votes, 2% of the popular vote

House vote:



Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) 30
President Barack Obama (D-IL) 17
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson (L-NM) 0
Abstention/No Vote 3

Senate vote:



Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE) 51
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) 49

*Blue means two votes for Ryan, green means one vote for each candidate, red means two votes for Biden.
*Republicans had flipped seats in MT and ND, Independent (caucusing with Democrats) Angus King voted for Ryan, Independent (caucusing with Democrats) Bernie Sanders voted for Biden.

President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)
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NHI
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« Reply #3792 on: August 08, 2013, 06:36:50 PM »



President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE) 269 electoral votes, 48.7% of the popular vote
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) 269 electoral votes, 49.3% of the popular vote
Other 0 electoral votes, 2% of the popular vote

House vote:



Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) 30
President Barack Obama (D-IL) 17
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson (L-NM) 0
Abstention/No Vote 3

Senate vote:



Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE) 51
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) 49

*Blue means two votes for Ryan, green means one vote for each candidate, red means two votes for Biden.
*Republicans had flipped seats in MT and ND, Independent (caucusing with Democrats) Angus King voted for Ryan, Independent (caucusing with Democrats) Bernie Sanders voted for Biden.

President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

Yay! Romney wins.
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badgate
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« Reply #3793 on: August 08, 2013, 06:44:15 PM »



Yay! Romney wins. Republicans steal.
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Enderman
Jack Enderman
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« Reply #3794 on: August 08, 2013, 06:52:13 PM »

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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3795 on: August 08, 2013, 08:37:10 PM »

Kennedy/Muskie: 270 (42.9%)
Reagan/Rockefeller: 223 (41.5%)
Wallace/LeMay: 45 (14.6%)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3796 on: August 08, 2013, 08:45:46 PM »


What exactly is being stolen?  Romney got more votes in this scenario.

Also, wouldn't Romney encourage the House Republicans in MI, WI, OH, PA and NJ to vote for Obama to avoid 2014 fallout?  He already has the magic 26 states without them.

I also can't see the AZ Dems sticking their necks out like that with no chance of being the deciding vote for Obama.
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badgate
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« Reply #3797 on: August 08, 2013, 11:09:24 PM »


What exactly is being stolen?  Romney got more votes in this scenario.


Sure, but did congressional Republicans?
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #3798 on: August 10, 2013, 10:20:50 PM »

McCain vs Romney, in terms of raw votes:
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NHI
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« Reply #3799 on: August 11, 2013, 07:10:26 AM »

Gore/Lieberman: 292 (49.38%)
Bush/Cheney: 246 (48.87%)

McCain/Specter: 329 (52.6%)
Gore/Lieberman: 209 (46.1%)

Clinton/Warner: 359 (53.6%)
McCain/Specter: 179 (44.8%)

Clinton/Warner: 436 (55.4%)
Perry/Santorum: 102 (41.6%)
Johnson/Gray: 0 (1.6%)
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