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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Let the hero born of woman crush the IDP with his heel, Apocrypha)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4400 on: November 01, 2014, 04:44:06 pm »
« edited: November 01, 2014, 05:46:55 pm by IDS Emperor Maxwell »

2016

President Obama's weak approval ratings had no bearing on Hillary Clinton, who by 2016 was riding high on the hog, leading Christie, Bush, Paul, and Cruz by margins of 6, 6, 5, and 12 respectibly. However, nobody could've predicted what was about to happen. The four frontrunners bombarded eachother with attacks and ads and it raised their negatives to the sky. Out of the blue, Ben Carson sweeps the Iowa causes convincingly, and knocks Ted Cruz out of the race. Paul wins New Hampshire, upsetting Christie, and Bush wins South Carolina. Ben Carson's grassroots operation is stronger than most expected (which was about Herman Cain levels of expectation), and Carson surprised everyone with a triple win in MO-MN-CO. Paul's grassroots support dried after Carson's surge, and Bush proved to be a weak operator, losing states like Illinois to Carson. Carson became the GOP nominee in spite of much unrest from the establishment GOP.

Which led to a crucial moment. Former Presidential nominee and Senator John McCain, furious with the Tea Party and not running for re-election, endorsed Clinton along with Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Susan Collins, and Senator Lamar Alexander, who hailed Clinton as a "sensible, pragmatic figure who could get things done". This doomed Carson from the start, who had a notable history of gaffes. While the VP debates were unexpected (Gillespie beat Landrieu in what many thought was an inspiring and hopeful debate), Clinton decimated Carson, charging that his views were out of the mainstream. Clinton won Democrats 98-2, Independents 56-42, and lost Republicans only 24-72. This was a disaster for Republicans.



Former S.O.S. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Former Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) - 58.3%, 484 EV's

Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD)/Former Senate Candidate Edward Gillespie (R-VA) - 38.9%, 54 EV's
Others - 2.8%, 0 EV's

2020

President Hillary Clinton left office with mediocre approval ratings, facing off against a Republican Senate constantly and rarely getting much done. Vice President Landrieu decided against running for President, fearing the wrath of the voters would strike her again after he narrow loss against Senator Bill Cassidy. Meanwhile, the Republican primaries between Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, two losers from the previous cycle, got hot and heavy early, coming at eachother with the most negative campaign anyone had ever seen. Through the darkness, Senator Cory Gardner rose and won Iowa, then New Hampshire, and after a narrow loss in Mark Sanford's own South Carolina, sweeped the race of the nation with grace. Meanwhile, Michelle Nunn, with her record of accomplishment in the Republican Senates, ran a graceful operation that focused heavily on inner state operations, and after barely losing Iowa to Senator Dave Loebsack (elected in 2016) and New Hampshire to Kirsten Gillibrand, cleaned house in the rest of the country.

The general election was one of the most contentious seen. Both candidates had high favorable, and each had a commanding control of a good amount of the other party. Gardner's pick of Charlie Baker angered social conservatives, but made him strongly competitive in the Northeast, with most polls showing he would sweep the Northeast (including Massachussets) with ease. Meanwhile, Michelle Nunn dominated in the former Safe south (her VP pick of Paul Davis, though controversial in some circles, satisified the Democratic base, since he was more liberal than her, and put a couple of points up in Kansas), with some polls even showing her ahead in Alabama (though Oklahoma and Utah were still in the 30-40 point range as they had been in the Obama administration).

As the election came to a close, however, both bases managed to come back, but a surprise twist when a video of Nunn caught her chastising workers, which immediately allowed Gardner to pull out a new nice guy ad, attacking her as a member of the political elite while at the same time not going overboard on the attack. Gardner swept the Mideast region and won the election by the narrowest of margins.



Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)/Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)
- 48.8%, 282 EV's

Senator Michelle Nunn (D-GA)/Governor Paul Davis (D-KS) - 48.6%, 256 EV's
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #4401 on: November 01, 2014, 05:18:20 pm »

2016


Governor Jeb Bush/Senator Marco Rubio (R): 292
Governor Martin O'Malley/Governor Howard Dean: 246

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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #4402 on: November 01, 2014, 05:22:27 pm »

2016


Governor Jeb Bush/Senator Marco Rubio (R): 292
Governor Martin O'Malley/Governor Howard Dean: 246


You do realize Bush and Rubio are both from Florida, right?
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #4403 on: November 01, 2014, 07:47:11 pm »

2016


Governor Jeb Bush/Senator Marco Rubio (R): 292
Governor Martin O'Malley/Governor Howard Dean: 246


You do realize Bush and Rubio are both from Florida, right?

I do realize that, yes.
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NHI
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« Reply #4404 on: November 02, 2014, 04:51:36 pm »

√ Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner: 270 (48.79%)
Jeb Bush/Joni Ernst: 268 (48.70%)
Bernie Sanders/Dennis Kucinich: 0 (1.98%)
Other: 0 (0.53%)

√ Brian Sandoval/Kelly Ayotte: 291 (50.89%)
Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner: 247 (47.69%)
Other: 0 (1.42%)
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Bigby
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« Reply #4405 on: November 04, 2014, 05:34:25 am »

2016


Governor Jeb Bush/Senator Marco Rubio (R): 292
Governor Martin O'Malley/Governor Howard Dean: 246


You do realize Bush and Rubio are both from Florida, right?

I do realize that, yes.

Does Bush move to like South Carolina to run on the same ticket as Rubio or something, then?
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NHI
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« Reply #4406 on: November 05, 2014, 09:27:34 am »


√ Walker/Ayotte: 295 (51%)
O'Malley/Warren: 243 (47%)
Other: 0 (1%)
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #4407 on: November 05, 2014, 05:45:43 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2014, 06:01:18 pm by Branden Cordeiro »


√ Walker/Ayotte: 295 (51%)
O'Malley/Warren: 243 (47%)
Other: 0 (1%)

I think O'Malley/Warren would be a disastrous ticket for the Democratic Party, I think that ticket loses Pennsylvania, and maybe Nevada.

2016


Governor Jeb Bush/Senator Marco Rubio (R): 292
Governor Martin O'Malley/Governor Howard Dean: 246


You do realize Bush and Rubio are both from Florida, right?

I do realize that, yes.

Does Bush move to like South Carolina to run on the same ticket as Rubio or something, then?

It was just a random map I made.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #4408 on: November 05, 2014, 08:05:47 pm »

If the polling biases of 2012 and 2014 switched:

Romney 321-Obama 217


GOP 52
Dems+Ind 48


GOP 56
Dems+Ind 42
Runoffs 2
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #4409 on: November 07, 2014, 02:06:41 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2014, 02:26:37 am by Yelnoc »

This is a R+10 shift map adjusted for 538's elasticity ratings.



Republican 57.15%, 430 EVs
Democrat 41.01%, 108 EVs

Here is a D+5 map produced by the same methodology.



Democrat 56.01%, 385 EVs
Republican 42.15%, 153 EVs
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NHI
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« Reply #4410 on: November 09, 2014, 05:30:08 pm »

√ Walker/Rice: 278 (49.15%)
Clinton/Castro: 260 (49.04%)
Other: 0 (1.81%)


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badgate
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« Reply #4411 on: November 09, 2014, 07:29:06 pm »

^Condoleezza Rice?
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NHI
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« Reply #4412 on: November 09, 2014, 09:07:00 pm »

Bush Holds On: The Unresolved Election
√ Bush/Quayle: 271 (47.8%)
Clinton/Brown: 267 (47.4%)
Perot/Stockdale: 0 (4.6%)
Other: 0 (0.2%)

The Base Cracks: Clinton's Comeback
√ Clinton/Kerrey: 339 (51.0%)
Quayle/Alexander: 199 (47.6%)
Other: 0 (1.4%)

No More Moderates: Clinton's Landslide
√ Clinton/Kerrey: 459 (60.9%)
Buchanan/Keyes: 79 (36.6%)
Other: 0 (2.5%)

America at War: Clinton's America Holds
√ Kerrey/Tsongas: 392  (53.5%)
Perry/Dole: 146 (44.4%)
Other: 0 (1.9%)

Kerrey Barely Hangs On: The Shifting Tide
√ Kerry/Tsongas: 270 (49.1%)
Huntsman/Snowe: 268 (49.7%)
Other: 0 (1.2%)

The Republicans Get Their Act Together: Forecast of Snowe
√ Snowe/Thompson: 346 (52.9%)
Dean/Kerry: 192 (45.0%)
Other: 0 (2.1%)
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #4413 on: November 11, 2014, 10:07:59 pm »

1992: Bush declines to run again
In this TL, President Bush decides he should not run again, as a result there is a contentious battle for the GOP nomination between Bob Dole, Dan Quayle and Pat Buchanan leading to a brokered convention. After several ballots, Bob Dole comes out ahead and Phil Gramm is nominated for Vice-President. This infuriates many Republicans and Pat Buchanan annouces he will be running with Ross Perot as his Vice-Presidential nominee.


Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) 238EV
Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS)/Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX) 143EV
Ross Perot (I-TX)/Pat Buchanan (R-DC) 157EV
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NHI
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« Reply #4414 on: November 11, 2014, 10:56:20 pm »

All Ears! Perot Wins in '92
√ (I) Ross Perot/James Stockdale: 372 (39.0%)
(D) Jerry Brown/Sam Nunn: 112 (34.3%)
(R) George H.W. Bush/Dan Quayle: 54 (24.7%)

Perot Sinks; Clinton to the Rescue
√ (D) Clinton/Gore: 450 (44.5%)
(R) Bob Dole/Jack Kemp: 85 (39.9%)
(RF) Perot/Stockdale: 3 (14.6%)

Clinton Wins Reelection
√ (D) Clinton/Gore: 355 (49.9%)
(R) McCain/Thompson: 183 (45.5%)
(RF) Buchanan/Keyes: 0 (3.8%)

A Bush Wins The White House Back
√ Jeb Bush/Kay Bailey Hutchison: 278 (49.0%)
Al Gore/Tom Harkin: 260 (48.3%)
Other: 0 (2.7%)

50 Percent Hurdle Cleared!
Bush/Hutchison: 301 (51.0%)
Ed Randell/Howard Dean: 237 (46.4%)
Other: 0 (2.6%)

History Made
√ Hutchison/Ryan: 284 (50.0%)
Shaheen/Brown: 254 (48.5%)
Other: 0 (1.5%)
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NHI
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« Reply #4415 on: November 12, 2014, 10:30:38 pm »

Bush vs. Dean: 2004 Election
√ Pres. Bush/Vice Pres. Cheney: 356 (52.5%)
Gov. Dean/Sen. Edwards: 182 (45.7%)

Kennedy vs. McCain: 2008 Election
√ Sen. Kennedy/Gen. Clark: 338 (51.7%)
Sen. McCain/Sen. Hutchison: 200 (47.3%)

Kennedy vs. Romney: 2012 Eleciton
√ Pres. Kennedy/Vice Pres. Clark: 289 (50.8%)
Gov. Romney/Sen. Portman: 249 (48.5%)

Bush vs. Warner: 2016 Election
√ Sen. Jeb Bush/Gov. Susana Martinez: 283 (51.1%)
Sen. Mark Warner/Sen. John Kerry: 255 (47.9%)

Martinez vs. Patrick: 2020 Election
√ Vice Pres. Susana Martinez/Rep. Paul Ryan: 300 (50.1%)
Gov. Deval Patrick/Sen. Bruce Braley: 238 (48.9%)
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NHI
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« Reply #4416 on: November 16, 2014, 08:08:29 pm »

'92: Bush Declines to Run
√ Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 346 (51.9%)
Dan Quayle/Jack Kemp: 192 (47.0%)
Other: 0 (1.2%)

'96: Clinton Soundly Defeats Powell
√ Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 403 (55.0%)
Colin Powell/Lamar Alexander: 135 (43.9%)
Other: 0 (1.1%)

'00: Gore Defeats Bush
√ Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 292 (49.9%)
George Bush/Dick Cheney: 246 (48.7%)
Other: 0 (1.4%)

'04: McCain Edges out Gore for a Second Term
√ John McCain/Elizabeth Dole: 278 (49.4%)
Al Gore/Joe Lieberman: 260 (49.1%)
Other: 0 (1.5%)

'08: McCain Routes Dean
√ John McCain/Tim Pawlenty: 416 (57.6%)
Howard Dean/Barbara Boxer: 122 (41.3%)
Other: 0 (1.0%)

'12: Despite a popular McCain, Clinton trumps Pawlenty
√ Hillary Clinton/Anthony Foxx: 275 (49.5%)
Tim Pawlenty/Jeb Bush: 263 (49.4%)
Other: 0 (1.1%)

'16: Steele Makes History
√ Michael Steele/Brian Sandoval: 269 (49.6%)
Hillary Clinton/Anthony Foxx: 266 (49.5%)
*Steele Elected by the House of Representatives, Foxx by the Senate.

'20: Foxx Resigns VP but Steele still wins
√ Michael Steele/Brian Sandoval: 273 (49.7%)
Anthony Foxx/Amy Klobuchar: 265 (49.5%)
Other: 0 (0.8%)

'24: Sandoval beats Kennedy
√ Brian Sandoval/Bill Haslam: ≈296 (50.5%)
Joseph P. Kennedy/Antonio Villaraigosa: ≈242 (48.2%)
Other: 0 (1.3%)
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #4417 on: November 17, 2014, 11:57:51 pm »

2012 Republican Primaries:

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Spkr. Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)

Brokered convention leads to a Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN)/Gov. Gary Johnson (R/L-NM) ticket, unifying both branches of the party.

2012 General Election:


Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN)/Gov. Gary Johnson (R-NM) 296EV
Pres. Barack Obama (D-IL)/VP. Joe Biden (D-IL) 242EV
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #4418 on: November 23, 2014, 09:39:02 am »



Clinton 323 37.4%
Perot 161 32.9%
Bush 54 29.0%
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NHI
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« Reply #4419 on: November 23, 2014, 05:52:23 pm »

√ Bush/Portman: 272 (49.5%)
Clinton/Heinrich: 266 (49.3%)
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MadmanMotley
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« Reply #4420 on: November 23, 2014, 06:11:34 pm »

2016:


Fmr. SoS. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Sec. Julian Castro (D-TX) 299EV
Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)/Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) 229EV
Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul (L-TX)/Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson (L-NM) 10EV
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4421 on: November 23, 2014, 06:35:17 pm »

2024



Senator Gwen Graham (D-FL)/Senator Julian Castro (D-TX) - 46.9%, ~ 294 EV's
Governor Ashley Swearengin (R-CA)/Senator Bob Dold (R-IL) - 45.3%, ~ 244 EV's
Others - 7.8%
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NHI
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« Reply #4422 on: November 30, 2014, 09:27:10 am »




√ Clinton/Castro: 303 (51.0%)
Christie/Martinez: 235 (47.1%)
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #4423 on: December 01, 2014, 01:44:29 am »

2016



Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz 371 (50.2%)
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul/Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker 158 (43.0%)
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham/New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte (6.1%)
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #4424 on: December 01, 2014, 02:25:51 pm »

1968 goes to Congress:

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