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mencken
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« Reply #5550 on: November 11, 2016, 11:36:24 PM »



President Donald J. Trump / Vice-President Michael R. Pence 53% 408
Senator Kamala Harris / Senator Cory Booker 46% 130
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RC (a la Frémont)
ReaganClinton20XX
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« Reply #5551 on: November 12, 2016, 04:40:42 AM »
« Edited: November 16, 2016, 11:34:54 AM by ReaganClinton20XX »

2000 Results and Electoral Count in 1788
Vice-President Albert Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) - 75 Electoral Votes
Gov. George Walker Bush (R-TX)/Fmr. Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney (R-WY) - 68 Electoral Votes
Lime Green: States To Be Admitted to the U.S.
Grey: Non-Admitted States
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Blackacre
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« Reply #5552 on: November 12, 2016, 11:13:31 AM »

2018 Senate elections: (lighter colour denotes pickup)

Dem +2

2018 Gubernatorial: (lighter colour again denotes pickup)

D+14
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NHI
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« Reply #5553 on: November 12, 2016, 12:08:58 PM »



President Donald J. Trump / Vice-President Michael R. Pence 53% 408
Senator Kamala Harris / Senator Cory Booker 46% 130

God-willing!
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5554 on: November 12, 2016, 02:22:50 PM »


Governor Roy Cooper /and/ Governor Greg Stanton (Democratic) 350 EV, 52%
Vice President Mike Pence /and/ Senator Tom Cotton (Republican) 188 EV, 47%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5555 on: November 13, 2016, 02:24:10 PM »

2020 - President Trump edges re-election, loses popular vote



President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 48.5%, 283 EV's
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)/Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) - 48.9%, 255 EV's

IMPEACHMENT in 2022



46th President - Mike Pence (R)
Vice President - Kelly Ayotte (R)*

*was defense secretary under Trump for a while, left due to creative differences with administration, publicly was for Trump impeachment. Democrats basically left this person as the only option for Pence.

2024 - Bloodbath



Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) - 54.2%, 398 EV's
President Mike Pence (R-IN)/Vice President Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) - 42.3% 140 EV's
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Bigby
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« Reply #5556 on: November 13, 2016, 03:08:22 PM »

A Different Billionaire Populist:


Businesswoman Elexis Sinclaire (R - FL)/Fmr. General James Mattis (R - WA): 347 EVs, 50.1% PV
Fmr. State Sec. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D - NY)/Congressman Joaquin Castro (D - TX): 185 EVs, 44.9% PV
Fmr. CIA Operative Evan McMullin (NS - UT)/Businessman Jim Oberweis (NS - IL): 6EVs, 1% PV

Scientist-turned-businesswoman Elexis Sinclaire feels invigorated to run for President after convincing affiliates of her main company SinTek to remain in the US despite rising corporate tax rates and regulations. In mid-2015, she announces her run for U.S. President with her first endorsement coming from fellow business mogul Donald Trump. Though she did so with her typical intellectual finesse, Sinclaire ran her Republican campaign on a more unorthodox platform. While retaining the usual GOP hardline in favor of national security, law and order, and a free market internally, Sinclaire called for a more socially liberal platform combined with calls for an end to NAFTA and the Hart-Cellar Act of 1965 along with declaring her support for a border wall and an opposition to the TPP. Sinclaire also focuses her campaign against the dual political dynasties of the Bushes and Clintons. She quickly gets Jeb Bush out of the GOP primaries with two dual victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Sinclaire would face Fmr. State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton despite a rather rocky primary against Senator Bernie Sanders for the fate of the Democratic Party. Sinclaire doubles down on her populist and outsider image by picking General James Mattis of the USMC to be her VP nominee. Clinton picks HUD Secretary Julian Castro, nervously attempting to appeal to Hispanics and other minorities, whom Sinclaire was trailing with even for a Republican candidate.

For most of the summer, Clinton slightly led Sinclaire. Her lead was the widest during the late July, August, and September months after FBI Director James Comey recommended to not indict Hillary Clinton over her emails. To make matters worse for Sinclaire, Bill Kristol and a group of establishment Republicans called "Never Sinclairers" nominated a Mormon CIA operative to ruin her chances in the West. A single, childless woman with such a populist, anti-establishmentarian message was not faring well with groups such as the Mormons, so that also hampered the billionaire's gamble. However, come late September, Sinclaire's constant rallies in swing and blue areas and her spectacular debate performances played in her favor. Not only did Sinclaire's own performance pull her over, Clinton's campaign was not doing itself any favors with Castro's VP nomination. Many Hispanics reportedly admitted that the VP nominee was running solely on being Hispanic, and that he had no qualifications of his own. They were proven right when Mattis utterly crushed Castro at the VP debate. A week later, Castro resigned from the ticket and was replaced by his brother, Joaquin. The race was largely a tossup, but virtually every pundit gave the race to Clinton due to the "blue firewall" and Hispanics and Mormons in the West. As Larry Sabato put it, "a Republican who needs to visit Idaho whatsoever in a Presidential election has dim chances."

Sinclaire was blessed near Election Day. The week before, Director Comey re-opened the Hillary email investigation thanks to some revelations from fmr. Congressman Anthony Weiner's computer files. To make matters worse, the investigation continued well into Election Day. Late decideds in many states would tip the election to Sinclaire, with many states going to the victorious candidate by less than 50% of the vote. Sinclaire ultimately won with 247 EVs, with the results of Colorado and Wisconsin being the ones to carry her over. Thanks to Sinclaire's astromically high performance in traditionally GOP states in the South and Midwest and her oddly well performance in California and New York, Sinclaire also decisively won the popular vote. McMullin pulled off Utah with 35% of the vote and kept Idaho down to merely 45% for Sinclaire, but he did nothing to endanger the GOP nominee. A few other boons for Sinclaire were her resounding support by working class whites, winning white women 60-30, gaining 33% of the Hispanic vote, and 12% of the black vote. The only voter blocs that Hillary outperformed Obama on were Muslim voters (which Sinclaire hardly won any at all due to her vocal criticisms of Islamic terrorism and doctrine) and LGBT voters despite constant rumors about Sinclaire being a closet lipstick lesbian. Elexis Sinclaire, CEO of SinTek, became the 45th President of the United States of America.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5557 on: November 13, 2016, 03:24:58 PM »

2024:

365(350 NOW): Senator Kelly Ayotte*/Governor Adam Kinzinger - 53.6%
173(188 NOW): President Elizabeth Warren/VP Keith Ellison - 40.7%
Others - 5.7%
*Elected in 2020; Attorney General 2018-2020
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Goldwater
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« Reply #5558 on: November 13, 2016, 03:47:27 PM »

The Southwest would have voted 55-42 Obama. Not sure why that would be considered more of a battleground than the Midwest (52-46 Obama), or even the Mid-Atlantic (54-45 Obama).

Ah, interesting. Like I said, I didn't actually run any numbers, so I hadn't realized that the Midwest was actually so close. The fact that it only has one Romney state and no McCain states makes it kind of misleading, I guess.

And it seems my ignorance is proved even further, considering the fact that my Midwest region easily went to Trump thus election, the Mid-Atlantic region was probably the closest one in the nation, and the Pacific/Southwest one was easily Hillary's best outside the Northeast region. Tongue
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Cynthia
ueutyi
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« Reply #5559 on: November 14, 2016, 05:11:39 AM »
« Edited: November 14, 2016, 05:15:55 AM by ueutyi »

2018 Senate in my dream
Titus beats Heller 51-41
Sinema beats Flake 47-45
Matheson beats Love 49-48 after recount
(Julian) Castro beats Cruz 41-37 with a strong third party Dan Patrick
Cooper beats DesJalaris 50-49 after recount
Greg Zoeller beats Donnelly 53-45
Jason Kander replaces Claire McCaskill as D nominee and beats Wagnar 53-40


Dem +4

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bagelman
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« Reply #5560 on: November 14, 2016, 09:45:42 PM »



Based on a comment on AAD, someone said that the only thing that truly mattered this election was the record breaking margins in NYC and San Fran. So I moved NYC to PA and SF to MI. Trump still wins.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5561 on: November 15, 2016, 06:44:35 PM »

2018 Senatorial Elections

Republicans   55 seats (+3)
Democrats   43 seats (-3)
Independents   2 seats (--)

2017-2018 Gubernatorial Elections

Republicans   26 governorships (-9)
Democrats   24 governorships (+9)
Independents   1 governorship (--)
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bagelman
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« Reply #5562 on: November 16, 2016, 01:09:46 AM »

POD: The economy of the south declines a little more in the 80s, and New York City and its area experiences a sort of revival along with neighboring New Jersey.



Al Gore wins the 2000 election 270-268. With the popular vote providing a needed mandate to his nail-biter electoral college win, attributed to narrow margins a number of key swing states, he receives his concession call from Gov. George W. Bush and is sworn in as President the next year.

Little known fact: Bush won the state of Florida by the slimmest margin for any candidate in electoral history.
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Blackacre
Spenstar3D
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« Reply #5563 on: November 16, 2016, 09:22:55 AM »

So if DC still did its protest non-vote, everything would have gone batsh**t crazy
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NHI
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« Reply #5564 on: November 16, 2016, 05:24:32 PM »

America Goes With The Duke
Michael Dukakis: 299 (50.8%)
George Bush: 239(48.1%)

Bob Dole says Vote for Bob Dole
Robert Dole: 430 (56.4%)
Michael Dukakis: 108 (41.1%)
Ralph Nader: 0 (1.5%)

Hubris and Humility
Mario Cuomo: 452 (50.5%)
Patrick J. Buchanan: 86 (40.4%)
Steven Forbes: 0 (7.2%)

Cuomo Hanging On
Mario Cuomo: 290 (49.1%)
John McCain: 248 (47.5%)
Other: 0 (3.4%)

Clash of Dynasties
John F. Kennedy, Jr: 272 (49.7%)
Mitt Romney: 266 (48.8%)
Other: 0 (1.5%)

The Rebuke
Thomas Thompson: 321 (51.6%)
John F. Kennedy, Jr. 217 (45.1%)
Other: 0 (3.3%)

The Working Class Revolt
James Webb: 449 (53.2%)
Thomas Thompson: 89 (41.9%)
Other: 0 (4.9%)

Happy Days Are Here Again
James Webb: 529 (62.4%)
Taggart Romney: 9 (34.8%)
Other: 0 (2.8%)
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #5565 on: November 16, 2016, 09:21:45 PM »

1888: CO holds a popular vote



Sam Tilden 187 EVs, 50.9%
Rutherford Hayes 182 EVs, 47.7%

Some people in the Tilden camp wanted him to challenge possible fraudulent results in FL, LA, and SC, but he uttered the now-famous line: "Why waste your complaints on victory?"
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5566 on: November 16, 2016, 09:45:09 PM »

1980: Carter Survives

President James E. Carter /and/ Vice President Walter Mondale (Democratic) 334 EV, 49% popular votes
Governor Ronald W. Reagan /and/ Representative George H.W. Bush (Republican) 204 EV, 47% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 EV, 4% popular votes
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5567 on: November 16, 2016, 11:27:58 PM »

1992 Louisiana Purchase - The End of GOP Domination

President Kit Bond (1981-1989) served two very successful terms, but his successor, Senator William Armstrong, proved to have a much more difficult time navigating the role of the office of President. In 1992, he finally met his match in a young Governor from Arkansas - Bill Clinton. Clinton managed to win over the deeply conservative Louisiana Purchase area and swing the white house - with the help of Congressman Wes Watkins, who abandoned the Democratic Party to form a new populist independent bid.



Governor William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Senator Robert Kerrey (D-NE) - 41.1%, 54 EV's
President William Armstrong (R-CO)/Vice President James Abdnor (R-SD) - 37.3%, 28 EV's
Congressman Wes Watkins (I-OK)/Millionaire Adam Walsh* (I-MO) - 20.9%, 0 EV's
Others - 0.7%, 0 EV's
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5568 on: November 17, 2016, 12:35:14 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2016, 12:52:56 PM by Maxwell »

1996 Louisiana Purchase - Clinton holds on

President Clinton first two years began incredibly rough, with Republicans gaining a super majority in both chambers in 1994. But the economy began to improve and Clinton took a sizable lead over Kansas favorite son Robert Dole. the marign of Clinton's win was surprisingly small considering pre-election polling, and the electoral margin showed a near victory for the aging Dole.



President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Robert Kerrey (D-NE) - 46.3%, 43 EV's
Majority Leader Robert Dole (R-KS)/Congressman Richard Baker (R-LA) - 42.8%, 39 EV's
Congressman Wes Watkins (I-OK)/Economist Ed Hank* (I-IA) - 9.4%, 0 Ev's
Others - 1.5%, 0 EV's

2000 Louisiana Purchase - The Party is Over

President Clinton would leave office popular, but with a heavy ethical cloud over his administration. Ashcroft ran with a pledge to bring honor back to the White House, while Kerrey ran with the hope that he could distance himself from Clinton's ethical challenges. This failed spectacularly, and Ashcroft won a sizable victory.



Senator John Ashcroft (R-MO)/Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 52.6%, 65 EV's
Vice President Robert Kerrey (D-NE)/Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) - 43.2%, 17 EV's
Others - 4.2%, 0 EV's
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5569 on: November 18, 2016, 05:35:01 PM »

2018 Senate Race - Success for Democrats in a Post-Trump World



D+1

Competitive Races

Arizona - 51% Krysten Sinema, 43% Laura Ingraham (Flake got primaried, Ingraham proved to be... well, Ingraham).

Delaware - 55% Lisa Blunt Rochester, 42% Adam Brooks* (Rochester primaried Carper successfully, Businessman Adam Brooks gave a tougher than expected challenge but despite polling competitively election day hit like a hammer)

Florida - 53% Bill Nelson, 42% Rick Scott (Scott proved a poorer senate candidate than he did a gubernatorial candidate)

Indiana - 49% Susan Brooks, 48% Joe Donnelly (Senator Fortunate proved to be the lone democrat loss in 2018)

Michigan - 55% Debbie Stabenow, 43% Brian Calley (Republicans assumed Stabenow to be more vulnerable than she actually was, pumping money into Calley they probably shouldn't have)

Missouri - 51% Jason Kander, 46% Ann Wagner (McCaskill retired at the end of her term to run a liberal think tank, and Kander jumped on to replacing her. Kander ran a campaign equally impressive to his 2016 campaign, and Wagner, without Blunt's incumbent advantage, succumbed)

Montana - 50% Jon Tester, 44% Ryan Zinke (Zinke was initially the golden boy of the GOP, but began having ethical problems which caused Tester to pull back ahead in the nick of time)

Nevada - 48% Dina Titus, 44% Dean Heller (A race neck-to-neck from day one - Heller proved a thorn in the side of the administration, but Titus never found footing in the race to break out, only on election day did Titus finally beat Heller thanks to The Reid Machine trademark 2010)

New Jersey - 53% Robert Menendez, 44% Jon Bramnick (yet another race Republicans got over-cocky about, Bramnick was close in the summer months but since then never stood a chance)

North Dakota - 50% Heidi Heitkamp, 46% Jack Dalrymple (the shock of the night - Dalrymple led in every poll, even the ones on election day which showed him only plus 1 or 2, but like Ron Johnson, Heitkamp campaigned hard and campaign local, while Republicans never put money into this race in the first place when initial public opinion polls showed Dalrymple with a double digit lead.)

Ohio - 58% Sherrod Brown, 37% Josh Mandel (ultimate proof re-matches aren't a good idea for either party)

Pennsylvania - 55% Bob Casey Jr., 42% Jim Cawley (this race never got off the ground, really)

Texas - 49% Ted Cruz, 47% Beto O'Rourke (Cruz faced a tough Trumpite primary from Mike McCaul, the exiting Homeland Security Secretary, and O'Rourke almost managed to be the right man at the right time)

Utah - 42% Jason Chaffetz, 34% Doug Owens, 18% Evan McMullin (McMullin stayed in the race after Chaffetz won the competitive Republican primary, due to Chaffetz being... well, Chaffetz. This gave Owens a few leading polls before ultimately crashing on election day to only slightly above the usual Democrat percentage of the vote)

Virginia - 60% Tim Kaine, 34% Carly Fiorina (Included this only for the lolz)

West Virginia - 48% Joe Manchin, 46% Patrick Morrissey (I'm not even sure what happened here)

Wisconsin - 54% Tammy Baldwin, 44% Sean Duffy (Duffy proved to be a pretty big laughingstock, with Baldwin running a hard-hitting campaign against him)
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mencken
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« Reply #5570 on: November 19, 2016, 11:52:51 AM »

Median Election Performance 2012-2016

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Mr. Smith
MormDem
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« Reply #5571 on: November 19, 2016, 05:55:44 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2016, 06:08:27 PM by L.D. Smith »

The current election:

5% Shift to Clinton



Clinton/Kaine: 413 EV, 53% PV
Trump/Pence: 125 EV, 42% PV

Another 5% Shift to Trump



Trump/Pence: 355 EV, 51% PV
Clinton/Kaine: 183 EV, 43% PV
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5572 on: November 20, 2016, 08:39:03 AM »

Favorite dogs by state



Labs are apparently the most popular, with beagles in the alps and shepherds in FL.
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NHI
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« Reply #5573 on: November 20, 2016, 04:37:59 PM »

Donald J. Trump: 340 (51%)
Elizabeth Warren: 198 (46%)
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Blackacre
Spenstar3D
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« Reply #5574 on: November 20, 2016, 04:48:58 PM »

Donald J. Trump: 340 (51%)
Elizabeth Warren: 198 (46%)

Maps like this are weird because I realise just how different a 340/198 EC win looks depending on which party won it. (by the way, in a 5 point win he'd probably take Maine-statewide)
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