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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Hoosier_Nick
Nicholas_Roberts
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« Reply #5900 on: March 25, 2017, 09:01:07 PM »

2020

Governor Steve Bullock /and/ Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic) 378 electors, 55% votes
President Donald Trump /and/ Vice President Mike Pence (Republican) 160 electors, 43% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 2% votes

2024

Senator Ron Johnson /and/ Representative Susan Brooks (Republican) 272 EV, 49% votes
President Kirsten Gillibrand /and/ Vice President Adam Schiff (Democratic) 266 EV, 49% votes
Others (Various) 2%

Susan Brooks??? Why?
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5901 on: March 26, 2017, 02:18:00 PM »

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton/Senator Barack Obama: 360 (53.1%)
Senator John McCain/Governor Tim Pawlenty: 178 (45.0%)

President Hillary Rodham Clinton/Vice President Barack Obama: 272 (50.3%)
Governor Mitt Romney/Governor Bob McDonnell: 266 (48.5%)

Vice President Barack Obama/Senator Sherrod Brown: 283 (49.2%)
Governor Bob McDonnell/Governor Sarah Palin: 255 (48.9%)

President Barack Obama/Vice President Sherrod Brown: 403 (40.2%)
Senator Charlie Crist/Governor Rick Perry: 64 (28.5%)
Congressman Keith Ellison/Dr. Jill Stein: 36 (14.8%)
Senator Rand Paul/Senator Mike Lee: 34 (15.6%)
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5902 on: March 27, 2017, 04:35:56 PM »

1956

Estes Kefauver /and/ Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) 296 electors, 49% votes
Richard Nixon /and/ Margaret Chase Smith (Republican) 235 electors, 50% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 1% votes
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Goldwater
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« Reply #5903 on: March 28, 2017, 05:59:52 PM »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5904 on: March 29, 2017, 11:02:32 AM »

Election of 1852

Zachary Taylor /and/ Hannibal Hamlin (National Union) 210 electors, 58% votes
Franklin Pierce /and/ William O. Butler (Democratic) 10 electors, 42% votes
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #5905 on: March 29, 2017, 05:28:14 PM »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?

Whiter, more college educated, slightly higher incomes compared to other states tip both Oregon and Washington to the GOP. Washington is higher income and more diverse but Oregon is whiter so they both fall into lean GOP states.

California becomes a toss up since the higher earning college educated whites and the increasing share of upscale minority groups, particularly Asians and Hispanics, start trending Republican.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #5906 on: March 29, 2017, 05:35:43 PM »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?

And, why is all of the South voting Democrat?
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5907 on: March 29, 2017, 10:24:23 PM »

✓ Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 276 (48.9%)
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 262 (49.0%)

✓ Mitt Romney/Marco Rubio: 355 (51.8%)
John Kerry/Tim Kaine: 183 (44.0%)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5908 on: March 30, 2017, 08:33:11 PM »



Terry McAuliffe/Tulsi Gabbard 2020 and it would of been the same map Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren 2016
  v
Trump/Pence
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NHI
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« Reply #5909 on: March 31, 2017, 11:13:01 PM »

✓ Michael Dukakis: 272 (49.5%)
George Bush: 266 (49.4%)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5910 on: April 01, 2017, 09:08:52 AM »

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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5911 on: April 01, 2017, 05:06:14 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2017, 05:18:14 PM by Maxwell »



blue = States George Wallace got over 10% of the vote
red = States George Wallace got less than 10% of the vote.

Unsurprisingly, George Wallace played very poorly on the coast and in the Northeast, but interestingly he also played very poorly in the conventionally Republican West, with some interesting performances in Idaho (they have a dark past with race) and Nevada (which I can kind of see, somehow being a little more Southern in nature than some of the other Western colonies). Closest states hovering around 10% are West Virginia, which barely breaks to join the Anti-Wallace coalition, and Michigan, which is just a hair above 10%.



blue = states Ross Perot got more than 20% of the vote
red = states Ross Perot got less than 20% of the vote

I notice there are a few inverses between Perot and Wallace. Perot performed spectacularly in the traditionally Republican west with one exception. Perot performed very poorly in the South, and interestingly also performed poorly in the rust belt with one big league exception in Ohio. The rust belt underperformance is interesting to me considering his campaign was TRADE TRADE TRADE, though maybe that wasn't an issue that resonated as hard with rust belters then. I think it has to do with the combination of TRADE TRADE TRADE with his hardline balanced budget message. I suppose WASPs like those kind of independents, so despite doing poorly overall in the Northeast (esp. New York and New Jersey), he did remarkably well in New England, particularly Maine where he got 2nd.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5912 on: April 01, 2017, 07:30:19 PM »



blue = States George Wallace got over 10% of the vote
red = States George Wallace got less than 10% of the vote.

Unsurprisingly, George Wallace played very poorly on the coast and in the Northeast, but interestingly he also played very poorly in the conventionally Republican West, with some interesting performances in Idaho (they have a dark past with race) and Nevada (which I can kind of see, somehow being a little more Southern in nature than some of the other Western colonies). Closest states hovering around 10% are West Virginia, which barely breaks to join the Anti-Wallace coalition, and Michigan, which is just a hair above 10%.



blue = states Ross Perot got more than 20% of the vote
red = states Ross Perot got less than 20% of the vote

I notice there are a few inverses between Perot and Wallace. Perot performed spectacularly in the traditionally Republican west with one exception. Perot performed very poorly in the South, and interestingly also performed poorly in the rust belt with one big league exception in Ohio. The rust belt underperformance is interesting to me considering his campaign was TRADE TRADE TRADE, though maybe that wasn't an issue that resonated as hard with rust belters then. I think it has to do with the combination of TRADE TRADE TRADE with his hardline balanced budget message. I suppose WASPs like those kind of independents, so despite doing poorly overall in the Northeast (esp. New York and New Jersey), he did remarkably well in New England, particularly Maine where he got 2nd.

Perot being such a Western phenomenon and Trump such an Eastern one is a very interesting contradiction given how similar they are.  Maybe the conditions on the ground in the Midwest simply hadn't deteriorated enough by 1992/96? 
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5913 on: April 01, 2017, 08:23:53 PM »

Yeah it's very strange, though I suppose Trump engaged more with working class people as opposed to the people who employed them. Trump aimed at lower educated voters, while Perot's was definitely more about educated voters. That might be the major difference right there.
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SATW
SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #5914 on: April 01, 2017, 09:40:47 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2017, 09:50:48 PM by SunriseAroundTheWorld »

USA Post-Worldwide Nuclear Apocalypse:


2100 Election:



Unified Response Party (Blue): 94 EVs  53.45%
National Reaction Coalition (Red): 81 EVs  46.55%

175 EVs Total

State by EVs:
- Florida: 26 EVs
- Ohio: 19 EVs
- North Carolina: 16 EVs

- Minnesota: 15 EVs
- Virginia: 14 EVs
- Wisconsin: 13 EVs
- Pennsylvania: 12 EVs

- South Carolina: 10 EVs
- Georgia: 10 EVs
- Montana: 10 EVs
- Michigan: 10 EVs
- West Virginia: 8 EVs
- Indiana: 7 EVs
- North Dakota: 5 EVs

Platforms for both parties:

Unified Response Party: This Party believes that the nuclear meltdown occurred due to a lack of a strong response to terrorism and other violent threats to the collective national security of the U.S. and the world. The main goals of this party is to focus on securing the remaining states of the USA and provide them with strong national defense forces against rogue forces lurking in the abandoned states near by.

This party also believes in  revitalizing each state's economy on a local basis (promoting individual rights in a Jeffersonian sense) while also providing a significant federal funding plan for infrastructure revitalization. This party opposes quotas or limitations on food sources in the country and supports the interests of farmers and ranchers by opposing bans or limitations on meat-eating.

National Reaction Coalition: This Party believes the nuclear meltdown occurred due to a divided and bitter world order. They believe that the world's countries played a dangerous game with nuclear weapons and energy and that it finally came back to cost us.

This party strongly supports creating a new system for the country with strong environmental and economic regulations. They want to outlaw any remaining source of nuclear energy and also want to ban fossil fuels and any other form of non-clean energy sources. They also support strong quotas and limitations on meat-eating and want to preserve all natural resources by initiating a limitation system based on state population.

They also believe in a strong centralized government that makes most decisions on economic issues for the states, falling more in line with the Hamiltonian view of government. Finally, they support a significant federal funding plan for infrastructure revitalization.
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SATW
SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #5915 on: April 01, 2017, 10:44:29 PM »

2104 Election:



Unified Response Party (Blue): 116 EVs   56.01%
National Reaction Coalition (Red): 59 EVs 43.99%

State by EVs:
- Florida: 26 EVs
- Ohio: 19 EVs
- North Carolina: 16 EVs
- Minnesota: 15 EVs

- Virginia: 14 EVs
- Wisconsin: 13 EVs
- Pennsylvania: 12 EVs

- South Carolina: 10 EVs
- Georgia: 10 EVs
- Montana: 10 EVs
- Michigan: 10 EVs
- West Virginia: 8 EVs
- Indiana: 7 EVs
- North Dakota: 5 EVs

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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #5916 on: April 03, 2017, 12:42:03 AM »


Bernie Sanders /and/ Sherrod Brown (Democratic) 353 electors, 52% votes
Donald Trump /and/ Mike Pence (Republican) 185 electors, 45% votes
Others (Various) 0 electors, 3% votes
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5917 on: April 03, 2017, 08:26:46 PM »

Roy Cooper: 293 (50.97%)
Michael Pence: 245 (47.77%)
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5918 on: April 04, 2017, 02:26:03 PM »

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NHI
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« Reply #5919 on: April 04, 2017, 06:14:04 PM »

✓ General Colin Powell: 272 (49.23%)
President Bill Clinton: 266 (49.12%)

✓ President Colin Powell: 458 (58.05%)
Governor Howard Dean: 80 (41.09%)
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5920 on: April 04, 2017, 10:08:34 PM »

2012 version



(combining the 3 New England states gives a single state worth 4 EVs)
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #5921 on: April 04, 2017, 11:28:13 PM »

2016 - Sanders wins thanks to Republican dysfunction



Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 50.1%, 350 EV's
Former Secretary of State W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) - 45.2%, 188 EV's

2020 - President Sanders smashes Pence



President Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 52.3%, 398 EV's
Senator Mike Pence (R-IN)/Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) - 43.5%, 140 EV's

2024 - VP Kaine rides Texas to victory



Vice President Tim Kaine (D-VA)/Senator Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) - 49.8%, ~300 EV's
Governor Josh Hawley (R-MO)/Congressman Richard Spencer (R-MT) - 46.2%, ~235 EV's
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #5922 on: April 05, 2017, 01:12:58 PM »

How exactly does Richard Spencer end up on the Presidential ticket? Tongue
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5923 on: April 05, 2017, 02:04:24 PM »

Homicide vs. Suicide

1980



326-212 Homicide

1992



332-198 [8] Suicide

1980 and 1992 are both spikes in the murder rate, and today the murder rate's very low, about half of what it was in 1980, while the suicide rate has slightly increased.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #5924 on: April 05, 2017, 03:40:38 PM »

Counties with the highest median household income in each state:

320-212 Trump

Closest- Illinois: Trump +77 votes (Kendall County)
Other close ones: AZ- Trump +3 (Maricopa), KS- Trump +2.6 (Johnson)

NOTE: Wake County (Raleigh) barely edges out Union County (Charlotte suburbs) in NC.  Trump won Union County 63-32.  Also, in Wyoming, Campbell County (87-7 Trump) edges out Teton County (58-31 Clinton).

NOTE 2: Loving County (rural West Texas), which Trump won 58 votes to 4 for Hillary actually has the highest income levels.  Excluding that, it would be Collin County (north of Dallas), which Trump won 56-39

NOTE 3: I don't know if people realized this, but Waukesha, WI fell just under 60% for Trump at the end (59.99%).
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