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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 989095 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: May 05, 2016, 07:07:10 PM »

Guess what would cause this map:

Overall PV: Trump/Christie: 57.9%, Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 37.2%

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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2016, 07:18:38 PM »

Guess what would cause this map:

Overall PV: Trump/Christie: 57.9%, Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 37.2%



Indictment? Conviction? Tongue

Explain New Mexico then
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2016, 07:30:40 PM »

Guess what would cause this map:

Overall PV: Trump/Christie: 57.9%, Clinton/Sherrod Brown: 37.2%



Indictment? Conviction? Tongue

Explain New Mexico then

How did I miss that? Well, the indictment comes just days before the election. In addition, Trump makes YUGE gains among whites, but struggles with Latino voters. A natural disaster, perhaps a wildfire, depresses turnout in rural areas very, very heavily, and lets Clinton pull off an oh-so-narrow semi-upset after weeks of recounts.

It's the result I got from playing this game as Hillary and making the absolute worst moves I could to sabotage her.  Clinton won 43.91%-43.73%.  Johnson got 10.05%.

https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2016, 11:35:00 AM »

I decided to try to create a Republican gerrymander for the country using real state lines and dividing us into 7 roughly even regions.  The smallest is New Texas, which carries 59 EV, but will probably grow, and the largest is The Great Northeast, with 92 EV, but which will likely decline in size.  The result is two solidly Democratic states and five Republican-leaning states.



NOTE: All percentages are calculated using two-party vote share only.

THE GREAT NORTHEAST (Light Red, 92 EV)Sad
Capital: New York City
Obama: 12,874,496, 62.2%
Romney: 7,822,035, 37.8%
PVI: D+10

THE SOUTH ATLANTIC (Dark Blue, 91 EV)Sad
Capital: Atlanta
Romney: 12,662,622, 51.7%
Obama: 11,823,431, 48.3%
PVI: R+4

THE OHIO VALLEY (Light Green, 73 EV)Sad
Capital: Cincinnati
Romney: 9,729,585, 52.4%
Obama: 8,849,219, 47.6%
PVI: R+4

THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (Medium Green, 62 EV)Sad
Capital: St. Louis
Romney: 7,551,659, 50.9%
Obama: 7,273,077, 49.1%
PVI: R+3

GREATER TEXAS (Light Blue, 59 EV)Sad
Capital: Dallas
Romney: 7,002,199, 56.1%
Obama: 5,490,107, 43.9%
PVI: R+8
Adding any neighboring states would only make this state more Republican, and it's important to save them for other states.  It could do without Oklahoma as well, but I didn't want to make it any smaller.

LAKES, PLAINS, MOUNTAINS, AND DESERT (Dark Green, 81 EV)Sad
Capital: Boise
Romney: 9,179,582, 51.3%
Obama: 8,718,638, 48.7%
PVI: R+3

ECOTOPIA (Dark Red, 78 EV)
Capital: San Francisco
Obama: 10,886,827, 60.8%
Romney: 7,005,518

Barring a Democratic landslide, Republicans should win 368-170.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 11:16:57 PM »

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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 03:02:39 PM »

Defeat from the Jaws of Victory/Election Night Heartbreak:


All night, we think we have won.  We even think we will be OK once Arizona looks close, because, after winning Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and ME-02, a tie would be the worst-case scenario.  But, then Alaska stuns the world!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2016, 12:31:55 PM »

I decided to try to create a Republican gerrymander for the country using real state lines and dividing us into 7 roughly even regions.  The smallest is New Texas, which carries 59 EV, but will probably grow, and the largest is The Great Northeast, with 92 EV, but which will likely decline in size.  The result is two solidly Democratic states and five Republican-leaning states.



NOTE: All percentages are calculated using two-party vote share only.

THE GREAT NORTHEAST (Light Red, 92 EV)Sad
Capital: New York City
Obama: 12,874,496, 62.2%
Romney: 7,822,035, 37.8%
PVI: D+10

THE SOUTH ATLANTIC (Dark Blue, 91 EV)Sad
Capital: Atlanta
Romney: 12,662,622, 51.7%
Obama: 11,823,431, 48.3%
PVI: R+4

THE OHIO VALLEY (Light Green, 73 EV)Sad
Capital: Cincinnati
Romney: 9,729,585, 52.4%
Obama: 8,849,219, 47.6%
PVI: R+4

THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (Medium Green, 62 EV)Sad
Capital: St. Louis
Romney: 7,551,659, 50.9%
Obama: 7,273,077, 49.1%
PVI: R+3

GREATER TEXAS (Light Blue, 59 EV)Sad
Capital: Dallas
Romney: 7,002,199, 56.1%
Obama: 5,490,107, 43.9%
PVI: R+8
Adding any neighboring states would only make this state more Republican, and it's important to save them for other states.  It could do without Oklahoma as well, but I didn't want to make it any smaller.

LAKES, PLAINS, MOUNTAINS, AND DESERT (Dark Green, 81 EV)Sad
Capital: Boise
Romney: 9,179,582, 51.3%
Obama: 8,718,638, 48.7%
PVI: R+3

ECOTOPIA (Dark Red, 78 EV)
Capital: San Francisco
Obama: 10,886,827, 60.8%
Romney: 7,005,518

Barring a Democratic landslide, Republicans should win 368-170.

2016 Update:
THE GREAT NORTHEAST (Light Red, 92 EV)Sad
Capital: New York City
Clinton: 12,507,637, 60.7%
Trump: 8,094,331, 39.3%
PVI: D+10

THE SOUTH ATLANTIC (Dark Blue, 91 EV)Sad
Capital: Atlanta
Trump: 13,312,774, 52.3%
Clinton: 12,138,681, 47.7%
PVI: R+3

THE OHIO VALLEY (Light Green, 73 EV)Sad
Capital: Cincinnati
Trump: 10,573,992, 56.8%
Clinton: 8,036,134, 43.2%
PVI: R+6 rolling avg/ R+8 in 2016

The other four will come later today!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2016, 08:08:14 PM »

2016 at different PV margins:

Clinton +30:

504-34
Last Clinton Win: Alabama
First Trump Win: South Dakota

Clinton +20:

437-101
Last Clinton Win: Utah
Last Trump Win: Missouri

Clinton +15:

413-125
Last Clinton Win: Maine's 2nd District (WOW!)
Last Trump Win: South Carolina

Clinton +10:

350-188
Last Clinton Win: Georgia
Last Trump Win: Ohio

Clinton +5

308-230
Last Clinton Win: Nebraska's 2nd District
Last Trump Win: Arizona

Clinton +3:

278-260 Clinton
Last Clinton Win: Wisconsin
Last Trump Win: Florida

Tipping Point (Clinton +2.79):

270-268 Trump win
Last Clinton Win: Pennsylvania (WI edged out PA late)
Last Trump Win: Wisconsin

Clinton +2:

306-232 (real map)
Last Clinton Win: New Hampshire
Last Trump Win: Michigan

Clinton +1:

310-228
Last Clinton Win: Minnesota
Last Trump Win: New Hampshire
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2016, 08:19:35 PM »

TIE:

320-218
Last Clinton Win: Nevada
Last Trump Win: Minnesota

Trump +1:

328-210
Last Clinton Win: Colorado
Last Trump Win: Maine AL

Trump +3:

337-201
Last Clinton Win: Virginia
Last Trump Win: Colorado

Trump +5

350-188
Last Clinton Win: New Mexico
Last Trump Win: Virginia

Trump +10:

365-173
Last Clinton Win: Connecticut
Last Trump Win: Delaware

Trump +15:

423-115
Last Clinton Win: New York
Last Trump Win: Illinois (+0.01)

Trump +20:

452-86
Last Clinton Win: Vermont
Last Trump Win: New York

Trump +30:

531-7
Last Clinton Win: Hawaii (Trump comes up 0.22% short of a 50-state landslide- let's also ignore that Trump gets over 100% of NE-3's vote)
Last Trump Win: California
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2016, 04:28:18 PM »

Why are the Bushes Democrats in your mini-timeline?
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2017, 11:19:05 PM »



Place I HAVEN'T been to or passed through.

??
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2017, 07:45:06 PM »



A rough idea of Clinton v Trump on the I-80 Corridor
I think this is cool. Here is I-95


There is zero chance that Trump carried the PA portion of I-95.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2017, 09:26:58 PM »

Ignore DC if you can't make it work in your explanation:
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2017, 05:35:43 PM »


Only thing I really disagree with is that UT is solid red and ID/WY are swing states. Unless the Republicans go through some seismic shift and become liberal, those states are the deepest ruby red.

Wyoming is such a tiny state that I could see it shifting just enough to put it into swing territory by 2040 just from migration and growth. Colorado 2008 basically.

I decided to put mormons in the Democratic column and I think that the ones in Boise, Idaho will have a strong enough presence combined with the state growing in size or shifting to become like 2008 Colorado. Why are the mormons Democrat? I figure since they're a small religious minority who dislike Trump that they'd overtime shift to the Democrats. The two big issues they opposed Trump on were the Muslim ban and his tough stance on illegal immigration. These are two issues that I don't really see the GOP softening on anytime soon. I think the GOP will neglect this group in the long run and since the mormons are disproportionately younger and their youth drastically outnumber their elderly then mormons as a whole will be pushed into the Democratic column by 2040.

Interesting. What cause the Pacific Coast and the Northeast to become so Republican?

And, why is all of the South voting Democrat?
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2017, 03:40:38 PM »

Counties with the highest median household income in each state:

320-212 Trump

Closest- Illinois: Trump +77 votes (Kendall County)
Other close ones: AZ- Trump +3 (Maricopa), KS- Trump +2.6 (Johnson)

NOTE: Wake County (Raleigh) barely edges out Union County (Charlotte suburbs) in NC.  Trump won Union County 63-32.  Also, in Wyoming, Campbell County (87-7 Trump) edges out Teton County (58-31 Clinton).

NOTE 2: Loving County (rural West Texas), which Trump won 58 votes to 4 for Hillary actually has the highest income levels.  Excluding that, it would be Collin County (north of Dallas), which Trump won 56-39

NOTE 3: I don't know if people realized this, but Waukesha, WI fell just under 60% for Trump at the end (59.99%).
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2017, 05:11:49 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2017, 05:15:41 PM by ExtremeRepublican »

And the poorest county in every state by median household income:


Trump 267, Clinton 265.  Assuming Clinton wins DC (duh), it would come down to Alaska, which Atlas doesn't have county data for.
Close ones:
NE-02 (Douglas): Clinton +2.5
California (Lake): Clinton +3.6
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