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December 11, 2019, 05:11:18 pm
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  Post random maps here (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 846454 times)
DPKdebator
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Posts: 1,537
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Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« on: December 10, 2016, 01:02:50 pm »


Here's a map which gerrymanders as many Democrats as possible into states that have (at least somewhat) plausible borders.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2016, 03:23:24 pm »

Here's some even more extreme gerrymandering:



This time, I used really awkward borders to eliminate as many blue areas as possible. The count for Republicans should be even higher, but I forgot to make a replacement OR and I couldn't kill tiny rump RI.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2017, 06:16:38 pm »


What things might look like in 2032 if the Atlas belief that the Sunbelt will become Democrat land and the Midwest becomes Republican turf.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 08:03:08 pm »

2020 (Trump vs. Harris):

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 311 EV (52%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 227 EV (46%)
Others: 0 Ev (2%)

Basically, we end up with a map for 2020 with the Republicans making gains in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Northeast and the Democrats doing well in the Southeast and Southwest.
Unless something radical happens to the country in the next 4 years, most of this is very unlikely (i.e. Republican Florida and Democratic Georgia and North Carolina).
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2017, 09:37:47 pm »

I'm flabbergasted as to what Republican could win DC.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2017, 08:37:45 pm »

If Trump is good...



175 solid GOP
137 likely GOP
29 lean GOP
28 tossup
25 lean Dem
72 likely Dem
72 solid Dem

Swing/battleground states: NV, NM, CO, VA, MN, WI, MI, PA, NJ, OR, DE, CT, RI, NY, VT, NH, ME, WA
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2017, 06:59:55 pm »

Donald Trump: 351 (51%)
Elizabeth Warren: 187 (47%)
I could see NM, CT, and RI going Republican as well in a Warren vs. Trump scenario (though it's a bit of a far shot).
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2017, 09:25:08 pm »

I'm surprised that Washington goes Republican before Oregon.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2017, 04:42:36 pm »

I'm surprised that Washington goes Republican before Oregon.
how about Maryland going GOP before Illinois?

that's pi for you

they do seem to see WA as more elastic  than most people would say it is

lmao election night was wild af

What is PI?
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2017, 04:53:34 pm »

President Infinity, a game by 270soft. You can get it for $20.
I've looked on their website before and it has a demo, but clicking it just redirects me to a page saying "President Forever is now President Infinity." Is there somewhere that has a demo of the game available?
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2017, 07:43:25 pm »

2016 election swung by various numbers (until Trump wins all 538):

R+5.5

350
188

R+12

373
165

R+20

423
115

R+30

531
7

R+90

538
0 Sad
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2017, 12:11:58 pm »


Here's a random map I made, which tallies EVs based off where I've been. The varying shades of red show how many times I've been somewhere (MA is >90% because I live here); PA, KY, and TN are sky blue because I'm going to those states in the future.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2017, 04:00:27 pm »

What do the huge numbers represent?
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2017, 05:22:19 pm »

Here's what the election would look like if every Johnson and McMullin voter went for Trump and every Stein voter went for Clinton:

Colorado is about a .5% difference, and Trump leads the PV by .65%. If this was calculated without McMullin, Clinton would have won NM by about 850 votes.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2017, 01:07:47 pm »

If every third party voter voted for Trump:
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2017, 06:24:43 pm »

I decided to see what would happen if the county (or, in the case of NY, NYC) with the most votes for Hillary in each state that she won was removed. The redraw app doesn't take CDs into account, so those are ignored here (though Hillary most likely still wins ME-01). Due to the magic of apportionment, most states actually gain EVs despite the population hemorrhage (the only ones that lose EVs are WA, CA, NV, UT, NM, MN. IL, and NY). Some states ended up being reaaaally close, like NM (around 16,000 vote difference) and NY (the difference was about 6,000 votes).

Chairman of the Trump Organization Donald J. Trump / Governor Mike Pence: 416 EV
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton / Senator Tim Kaine - 122 EV
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2017, 07:09:11 pm »

Here's the same idea, but with the addition of CA being removed. Note that NE has 6 EVs, but it won't let me change the number without turning on CDs.

Chairman of the Trump Organization Donald J. Trump / Governor Mike Pence: 458 EV
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton / Senator Tim Kaine - 78 EV
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2017, 08:29:47 pm »

Here's a map of 2016 if all the coastal counties (I was somewhat inclusive with this definition, since places like Philly and Portland, OR were removed) EXCLUDING lake counties were removed:


Same thing, but with the addition of the Great Lakes counties:


Then, in addition to the above changes, in 2 stages an additional "line" of counties is removed (as in the counties that border the removed ones):
Same thing, but with the addition of the Great Lakes counties:

452 - 76
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2017, 11:03:53 am »

Based on my Campaign Trail game...

Donald Trump - 350 EV, 51.9%
Hillary Clinton - 187 EV
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2017, 07:25:43 pm »

I don't see how Bush '00 does so much better than Bush '04.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2017, 09:13:25 pm »

If America had political parties like Ireland:

Soldiers and Republican Party (conservatives) - 173 EV
Family Party (liberal conservatism, Christian democracy) - 166 EV
We Ourselves (left-wing) - 86 EV
Labour Party - 25 EV
Other party - 10 EV
Independents - 49 EV


If America had political parties like the UK:

Conservative Party - 273 EV
Labour Party - 189 EV
American National Party (left-wing nationalists) - 26 EV
Liberal Democrats - 7 EV
Others/independents - 50 EV
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2017, 08:53:05 am »


Why? In both maps I tried to give each party a number of EVs proportional to their parliament seats.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2017, 08:51:16 pm »

2016 election if the 10 largest counties in each state (or, half of them if the state had 10 or less counties) are removed:


Donald Trump - 469 EV
Hillary Clinton - 69 EV

If anyone's curious to see what was removed, here's the link.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2017, 04:45:54 pm »

2016 with the swing from 2000:

356 - 182

2000 with the swing from 2016:

356 - 182

Shockingly, the EV result is the exact same for both scenarios, and the only "different" state is Oregon.
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DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,537
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: 2.61

« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2017, 07:07:03 am »

What year would this be in? It seems a lot like a future scenario.
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