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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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Author Topic: Post random maps here  (Read 809566 times)
Del Tachi
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« on: June 20, 2011, 10:09:12 pm »



Guess!

Hint: It has something to do with altered demographics...
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2011, 11:04:03 pm »



Guess!

Hint: It has something to do with altered demographics...

2008, only whites.

Actually its 2004 with no blacks, good guess though.


Any guesses on this one?  Its a 2016 scenario.  NOTE: Red=Republican, Blue+Democrat
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2011, 11:23:39 am »

The map above is Chris Christie/Mark Kirk v. Mark Pryor/Russ Feingold
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2011, 01:47:38 pm »



A ten-point nationwide swing from Goldwater to Johnson in 1964. 
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2012, 09:53:02 pm »


A ten point swing from Reagan to Mondale in 1984 gives the Democrats the victory 284-254.  Looks a lot like today, with a "blue" Northeast and West Coast.  Weird...I gues the "Jesusland" map does have some history behind it...
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2013, 08:04:41 pm »



HINT:  Has something to do with seniority in the United States Senate.
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2015, 01:44:12 pm »


Party of the each state's senior senator, with graduations based upon what decade the senator took office (i.e., 1970s = 90% graduation, ..., 2010s = 50% graduation)
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2016, 01:09:33 pm »

United States presidential election, 2008

POD:  Don Siegelman is reelected governor of Alabama in 2002 and is never brought-up on federal charges.  He goes on to run for President in 2008, and successfully defeats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama by appealing to Southern Whites and working class voters in the Democratic Primary.


(✓) Former Governor Don Siegelman (D-AL) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 380 EV; 53.2% of popular vote
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) - 158 EV; 45.6% of popular vote


United States presidential election, 2012

Working with large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, President Siegelman accomplishes a more moderate version of OTL health care reform, an economic stimulus package, and an infrastructure bill.  Democrats suffer losses in the 2010 midterms, but maintain control of both the House and Senate.  Interpreting the midterm results as a tepid affirmation of his presidency, Siegelman pursues an overly-cautious approach through much of his term.  His inability to substantially motivate his base of Southern Whites plus the Democrats' growth among young/minority voters are seen as contributing factors to his loss to Mitt Romney in 2012. 


(✓) Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) - 291 EV; 49.8% of popular vote
President Don Siegelman (R-AL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) - 247 EV; 48.4% of popular vote
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2016, 09:50:20 am »

United States presidential election, 1968


Senator Robert F. Kennedy (D-NY) / Senator George Smathers (D-FL) - 256 electoral votes
Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Senator Clifford Case (R-NJ) - 237 electoral votes
Governor George Wallace (AIP-AL) / General Curtis LeMay (AIP-OH) - 45 electoral votes
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 04:11:21 pm »

United States presidential election, 2004


(✓) Senator John Edwards (D-NC) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 274 EVs; 48.5% of the PV
President George W. Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) - 264 EVs; 50.3% of the PV

President Bush gets a taste of his own medicine when he's defeated by John Edwards for reelection despite winning the popular vote.  The almost two-point spread, however, hurts Edwards' legitimacy as President and he is unable to accomplish much of his campaign platform, including health care reform and a timetable to leave Iraq by 2008, before Republicans make gains in the House and Senate in 2006.

United States presidential election, 2008


(✓) Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 382 EVs; 53.0% of the PV
President John Edwards (D-NC) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) - 156 EVs, 45.4% of the PV

Jeb Bush defeats John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee to become the Republican nominee in 2008.  While Edwards starts at a disadvantage due to the situation in Iraq and signs of a weakening economy, the collapse of global financial markets in October 2008 propels Governor Bush to the largest victory for a Republican since 1984.  John Edwards becomes remembered as another Democratic Jimmy Carter
 

United States presidential election, 2012


(✓) President Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Vice President Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 285 EVs; 50.1% of the PV
Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) - 253 EVs, 48.8% of the PV

Similar to OTL, President Bush's response to the financial crisis includes TARP and an economic stimulus packaged with tax cuts.  He is also successful in passing a national charter school law, immigration reform, and national right to work.  Economic recovery throughout his term is weak, and the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan remain precarious.  Democratic Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton forgoes reelection and beats Barack Obama to become the Democratic nominee.  She runs a campaign championing the middle class and decrying Bush's education and labor plans.  Despite most pundits predicting a close Hillary win, Bush wins a second term by riding close victories in Iowa and Ohio.

United States presidential election, 2016


(✓) Former President George W. Bush (R-TX) / Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) - 287 EVs; 48.0% of the PV
Businessman Donald Trump (D-NY) / Governor Dan Kildee (D-MI) - 251 EVs, 45.9% of the PV
Physician Jill Stein (G-MA) / Activist Ajamu Baraka (G-GA) - 0 EVs, 4.3% of the PV

2016 turns out to be one of the strangest years in American politics.  Former President George W. Bush clears the Republican field of top-tier opponents, but faces a stronger than expected primary challenge from Idaho Governor Butch Otter.  Running with a slogan of "Make American Great Again" and decrying American losses in trade and manufacturing, Businessman Donald Trump wins a fractured Democratic primary over Barack Obama, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, Bernie Sanders, and Amy Klobuchar.  Unacceptable to many of the liberal base, Trump does poorly among college-educated Whites who flock to Bush and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.



I really like this scenario, possible (short) timeline in the works
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 06:26:28 pm by Del Tachi »Logged

2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2016, 11:53:36 am »



Used 538's demographic calculator to simulate a national election where college-educated Whites and Blacks are solidly Republican voting, with Hispanics and non-educated Whites being mostly Democrats.
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2016, 06:21:00 pm »



Used 538's demographic calculator to simulate a national election where college-educated Whites and Blacks are solidly Republican voting, with Hispanics and non-educated Whites being mostly Democrats.

What situation would cause this to happen? Time traveling back to the late 1800s? Tongue

Probably don't have to go that far back.  Could potentially arise in a situation where a Republican like Prescott Bush or Nelson Rockefeller is President during the 1960s and passes Civil Rights/the Great Society.  National Democrats would be more likely to pander to the WWC class in such a scenario, Hispanics could be brought in mostly on labor issues as well.
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2016, 10:35:49 pm »

United States presidential election, 1960

(✓) Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA) / Senator Lyndon Johnson (D-TX) - 277 EVs
Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) - 260 EVs
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
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