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Author Topic: IL-PPP: Duckworth +6  (Read 2684 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 29, 2015, 08:23:44 am »

42/36. Crushes the primary 59/10.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2015, 08:25:00 am »

That's...extremely disappointing. I was hoping for double figures. This woman is a hero facing a joke like Kirk. Can Illinois do something right for once!?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2015, 08:26:21 am »

Kirk's approvals are awful, he's gonna get Blanched.
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mds32
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2015, 08:41:28 am »

Kirk is going to have to hope that Zopp makes this a more interesting race, otherwise he is almost certainly not going to win.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2015, 08:42:24 am »

This is right where Duckworth wants to be at this point. It started very narrow and every time he talks, the gap widens.

There's still a significant contingent of independents and Democrats in the suburbs that like Kirk, but it is eroding as they realize the impact that his stroke had on his ability to serve us.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2015, 08:53:48 am »

Better than I would've guessed.

Kirk's approvals are awful, he's gonna get Blanched.

Nah, he's going to get Browned
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2015, 08:57:16 am »

Kirk's approvals are weaker than expected thanks to Republicans not approving of him in the sort of way he needs (he still ends up getting their support, but still).
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2015, 09:55:47 am »

Last PPP had toomey up 4-6 pts, and Clinton will win the state by 4-6 pts.

IL 10 will be the bellweather, Dold would have to win to carry Kirk.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2015, 09:57:09 am »

Well,
Lean Democrat
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yeah_93
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2015, 10:13:16 am »

The fact that the incumbent Senator is at only 36% is really bad for him. I'm not gonna say he's doomed, or that he's going to straight lose like Blanche Lincoln, but Kirk needs to get his act together.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2015, 03:24:38 pm »

Better than I would've guessed.

Kirk's approvals are awful, he's gonna get Blanched.

Nah, he's going to get Browned

The Brown-Warren race was completely different, both had very high approval ratings on election day. Kirk's approval ratings are now 25-42, that's gonna be really hard for him to overcome especially in a Presidential year when Democrats always come home in Illinois. Gonna be rough.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2015, 04:31:30 pm »

I'm sure his Iran warmongering is going to turn his approvals upside down, just like Dick Morris predicted.
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🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2015, 05:39:30 pm »

Better than I would've guessed.

Kirk's approvals are awful, he's gonna get Blanched.

Nah, he's going to get Browned

The Brown-Warren race was completely different, both had very high approval ratings on election day. Kirk's approval ratings are now 25-42, that's gonna be really hard for him to overcome especially in a Presidential year when Democrats always come home in Illinois. Gonna be rough.

That's his CURRENT approval rating, 15 months before the election. Also, MA is much more Democratic than IL. Brown could have run a perfect campaign and would have still lost.

Surely Mass. is more swingy than Illinois though?
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2015, 05:44:50 pm »

Better than I would've guessed.

Kirk's approvals are awful, he's gonna get Blanched.

Nah, he's going to get Browned

The Brown-Warren race was completely different, both had very high approval ratings on election day. Kirk's approval ratings are now 25-42, that's gonna be really hard for him to overcome especially in a Presidential year when Democrats always come home in Illinois. Gonna be rough.

That's his CURRENT approval rating, 15 months before the election. Also, MA is much more Democratic than IL. Brown could have run a perfect campaign and would have still lost.

Surely Mass. is more swingy than Illinois though?

MA is swingy with gubernatorial races only. At the presidential and senate level it's been very inelastic for decades. Scott Brown is the sole recent exception to that rule.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2015, 11:33:35 am »

This is more believable than the poll showing Duckworth up by 17, though Kirk is definitely in trouble. Sure, he's not done for just yet, but I think "Lean D" fits this race, at this point.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2015, 11:43:09 am »

The R's in the state legislature have toxic approvals, as budget impasse keeps going on. As Kirk refuses to stand by Gov Rauner, affecting GOPers down ballot.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2015, 10:17:10 pm »

Last PPP had toomey up 4-6 pts, and Clinton will win the state by 4-6 pts.

IL 10 will be the bellweather, Dold would have to win to carry Kirk.
And then some. Also watch the 12th and 13th downstate (both St. Louis-area districts). They swung pretty hard right in 2014. If either of them goes blue, Kirk's probably done. The 12th in particular is a pretty decent indicator of what's going on statewide. Mike Bost beat the incumbent there by a slim margin last year as Bruce Rauner also won by a slim margin statewide.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2015, 11:18:48 am »

Many Brits (particularly those aged, say, 30 or over) would be amused at the idea of a U.S. Senator named 'Duckworth'.
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Figueira
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2015, 11:43:52 am »

Better than I would've guessed.

Kirk's approvals are awful, he's gonna get Blanched.

Nah, he's going to get Browned

The Brown-Warren race was completely different, both had very high approval ratings on election day. Kirk's approval ratings are now 25-42, that's gonna be really hard for him to overcome especially in a Presidential year when Democrats always come home in Illinois. Gonna be rough.

That's his CURRENT approval rating, 15 months before the election. Also, MA is much more Democratic than IL. Brown could have run a perfect campaign and would have still lost.

Surely Mass. is more swingy than Illinois though?

MA is swingy with gubernatorial races only. At the presidential and senate level it's been very inelastic for decades. Scott Brown is the sole recent exception to that rule.

There have been exactly two open Senate races in Massachusetts in the past 30 years. It's hard to make generalizations based on that.
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Green Line
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2015, 12:21:45 pm »

Rauner is not doing too bad in this poll, especially considering PPP usually has low approvals across the board.  He is in a better position than Kasich, Walker, and Snyder were at this point.
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