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Author Topic: IL-PPP: Hillary dominating  (Read 2865 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 29, 2015, 08:26:48 am »

Leads all Pubs comfortably.
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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2015, 08:28:37 am »

Walker has a 64/15 favorable rating in IL. Interesting.
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2015, 08:31:26 am »

~10 point leads seem more suggestive of a Kerry/Gore-esque performance than either of Obama's wins (granted the home state effect was strong in his first election). Either Hillary is a paper tiger or the Midwest is trending Republican even faster than I thought.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2015, 08:35:30 am »

Sanders is also leading all Pubs outside the margin of error

Just in case anyone got any ideas of a competitive Illinois in the future
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2015, 08:37:23 am »

Walker has a 64/15 favorable rating in IL. Interesting.

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?


Favorable 32%
Unfavorable 38%
Not sure 30%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2015, 08:37:43 am »

Walker has a 64/15 favorable rating in IL. Interesting.

That's only among Republicans.
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2015, 08:42:23 am »

Same sample that gives Obama a 47%-46% (+1) approval gives Clinton a 45%-47% (-2) favorable.  PPP doesn't appear to be picking up on any Clinton favorability crash.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2015, 08:47:04 am »

Same sample that gives Obama a 47%-46% (+1) approval gives Clinton a 45%-47% (-2) favorable.  PPP doesn't appear to be picking up on any Clinton favorability crash.

Isn't 45%/47% for Clinton a rather poor showing, given how Democratic the state is?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2015, 08:49:26 am »

Same sample that gives Obama a 47%-46% (+1) approval gives Clinton a 45%-47% (-2) favorable.  PPP doesn't appear to be picking up on any Clinton favorability crash.

Isn't 45%/47% for Clinton a rather poor showing, given how Democratic the state is?


Yes. At this point the election is "who do you not like the least"?
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Icefire9
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2015, 09:04:01 am »

Same sample that gives Obama a 47%-46% (+1) approval gives Clinton a 45%-47% (-2) favorable.  PPP doesn't appear to be picking up on any Clinton favorability crash.

Isn't 45%/47% for Clinton a rather poor showing, given how Democratic the state is?

It is, but the point of my post was that it's in line with Obama's approval, which is different than what some other polls have shown.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2015, 09:06:40 am »

Her leads are pretty weak for Illinois. Maybe the Obama bump was big.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2015, 09:10:45 am »

Clinton 48%
Bush 39%

Sanders 42%
Bush 37%

Clinton 49%
Carson 37%

Clinton 49%
Christie 35%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 49%
Fiorina 34%

Clinton 51%
Huckabee 35%

Clinton 47%
Paul 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 37%

Clinton 51%
Trump 33%

Sanders 48%
Trump 32%

Clinton 50%
Walker 39%

Sanders 40%
Walker 36%
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2015, 09:33:52 am »

~10 point leads seem more suggestive of a Kerry/Gore-esque performance than either of Obama's wins (granted the home state effect was strong in his first election). Either Hillary is a paper tiger or the Midwest is trending Republican even faster than I thought.

Yes, 10 points in Illinois is a very pedestrian lead (and it's the state Hillary grew up in). The favorite son effect for Obama, largely wore off in 2012, and yet he won by close to 20 points.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2015, 09:34:52 am »

~10 point leads seem more suggestive of a Kerry/Gore-esque performance than either of Obama's wins (granted the home state effect was strong in his first election). Either Hillary is a paper tiger or the Midwest is trending Republican even faster than I thought.

Yes, 10 points in Illinois is a very pedestrian lead (and it's the state Hillary grew up in). The favorite son effect for Obama, largely wore off in 2012, and yet he won by 17 points.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2015, 10:11:43 am »

Nice to see Bush trailing by less than 10.
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« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2015, 11:24:33 am »

If she wins the state by a Kerry 2004 margin, it might suggest good news for Republicans in PA.
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« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2015, 02:44:01 pm »

If she wins the state by a Kerry 2004 margin, it might suggest good news for Republicans in PA.

Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004. And Hillary is a much better fit there than Obama.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2015, 02:48:29 pm »

Clinton wont lose Pa.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2015, 07:02:15 pm »

PA is indeed part of the 272 blue wall, and it is a swing blue state; like OH is a swing red state; and CO is the purple state.

Ask Wolf, Corbett came within six of winning and the race was put away long time before election night☺
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yeah_93
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« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2015, 07:19:06 pm »

PA is indeed part of the 272 blue wall, and it is a swing blue state; like OH is a swing red state; and CO is the purple state.

Ask Wolf, Corbett came within six of winning and the race was put away long time before election night☺
PA is indeed part of the blue wall if Hillary wins. If she doesn't, then it's on play.

BTW didn't Corbett lose by 10?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2015, 07:27:59 pm »

Wolf won by 9, but Corbett exceeded expectations, he was down by 15 or more most of time.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2015, 07:36:31 pm »

Unskew for PPP's liberal bias and you have a dead heat. What a shock poll.

Seriously, Clinton will outperform Kerry here, but probably do slightly less well than Obama. Downstate has trended Republican, but the metro area isn't getting any redder and is pretty much stagnant.
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2015, 02:50:11 am »

Sanders is also leading all Pubs outside the margin of error

Just in case anyone got any ideas of a competitive Illinois in the future

Maybe by like 2028 or 2032 I can definitely see it being competitibe.
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2015, 03:04:52 am »

If she wins the state by a Kerry 2004 margin, it might suggest good news for Republicans in PA.

And Hillary is a much better fit there than Obama.

This might have been true in 2008, but not today. If she's such a better fit than Obama, why isn't she polling better than Obama 2012 there? She's currently at Kerry 2004 numbers in PA.

Well polling almost 16 months from an election is usually BS anyhow...
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« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2015, 05:09:06 am »

Oh, the sky is a nice shade of blue today...
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