St. Pete's Poll: Trump Leads Republican Primary in FL
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Author Topic: St. Pete's Poll: Trump Leads Republican Primary in FL  (Read 1874 times)
moderatevoter
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« on: July 29, 2015, 12:50:12 PM »
If the Republican presidential primary election were held today who would you
choose?

Ted Cruz: 4.2%
Rand Paul: 3.3%
Marco Rubio: 9.7%
Ben Carson: 4.5%
Jeb Bush: 20.0%
Donald Trump: 26.1%
Scott Walker: 12.2%
John Kasich: 4.1%
Unsure or Someone else: 15.9%

Link.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2015, 12:51:07 PM »
Trump☺
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2015, 12:59:09 PM »
For those with OCD:

Donald Trump: 26.1%
Jeb Bush: 20.0%
Unsure or Someone else: 15.9%
Scott Walker: 12.2%
Marco Rubio: 9.7%
Ben Carson: 4.5%
Ted Cruz: 4.2%
John Kasich: 4.1%
Rand Paul: 3.3%
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Donerail
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« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2015, 01:01:05 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2015, 01:14:30 PM by SJoyce »
Obligatory >decimals

St. Pete Polls has been very good on a local and regional level, but their statewide record is more spotty. Still, it passes the smell test. If so, RIP Rubio 2016.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2015, 01:05:07 PM »
Hispanics made up around 10% of the GOP primary electorate last year. That's a bad sign for the Republican Party if it sunk to 5%.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2015, 02:13:31 PM »
WTF? There is NO WAY Trump is polling first here, I'm calling this as an outlier poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2015, 02:42:06 PM »
LOL Rubio!
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2015, 02:44:00 PM »

IKR?!?! Trump first and Rubio 4th? Doesn't make sense.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2015, 03:13:50 PM »
Hahaha


Well, 4th place in his home state would certainly be the end of his campaign.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2015, 08:47:56 PM »
The poll writeup also includes some "nonweighted" crosstabs.

Among Hispanics (presumably nearly all of whom are Cubans), it's:

Bush 33%
Rubio 27%
Trump 23%
Walker 4%
Paul 3%
Cruz 2%
Kasich 1%

The poll also finds a whopping 12 black Republicans.  Looks like 4 of them support Bush and 3 support Trump.  0 of them support Carson.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2015, 12:35:06 PM »
As someone who grew up in Florida and follows politics there, I absolutely believe these numbers.

Florida is a swing state but that's not the same as being a moderate state. The half of the population who are Republicans are very extreme.

I lived in both Florida and Arizona (a state known for its conservatism) and there's no question that conservatives in Florida are more conservative than conservatives in Arizona. In Arizona, campaign ads usually feature vague platitudes about America and freedom and sometime taxes. In Florida, campaign ads sound like they were written by Rush Limbaugh. Lots of talk about abortion, LIBERALS, Christianity, and socialism.

Although Trump isn't really that ideological, he has that blowhard talk radio type of style that fits in very well in the state, much more so than Bush's cautious moderation.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2015, 12:36:39 PM »
Also, Bush would probably be doing better if he had been governor in the last decade.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2015, 03:44:34 PM »
Can we stop pretending Rubio is a top tier candidate now?
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