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  World population growing faster than expected - 11 billion+ in 2100
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politicus
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« on: July 29, 2015, 04:53:55 pm »
« edited: July 29, 2015, 08:12:30 pm by politicus »

According to a new UN report "World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision" we will in 2100 be 50% more people on the planet than today. Still more will also have a higher standard of living and a higher consumption than now. And an increasing proportion will be in the non-working age.

If all this really can be done, and is not limited by lack of food and resources, devastating climate change and environmental degradation, social conflicts and wars - or as a result of wise decisions (last thing not bloody likely).

The report estimates that the global population will grow from 7.3 billion people today to 9.7 billion in 2050 and then to 11.2 billion in 2100.

Both the estimates for 2050 and 2100 are upward revisions compared to the previous forecast from 2012, when the UN scenario said 9.6 billion. and 10.9 billion. The 2012 forecast contained in itself an upward revision compared to the version from 2010, when world population was estimated to hit 10.1 billion. in 2100.

In other words: The global population increases by more than the experts previously predicted. According to the new report the curve has still not completely bottomed out and growth is not even stopped at the end of the century (as previously expected).

It is  unsurprisingly especially in poor countries that population growth is still high. More than half of the growth until 2050 is expected to be in Africa, where 28 countries will double their population. This is because the continent's young population has a continued high fertility rate of 4.7 births per woman - three times as much as a woman in Europe.

In total the African population will grow from 1.2 billion now to twice as many in the middle of the century and almost 4.4 billion. in 2100!

By 2050 Nigeria is projected to overtake the United States and become the world's third most populous country.

The growth concentration in the poorest countries presents its own challenges and makes it even more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, fighting hunger and malnutrition and improve education enrollment and health care systems - all crucial for the success of the UN agenda of sustainable development.

The most populous region in the world will still be Asia, and especially India's large population continues to grow significantly. While China's population has almost stabilized around 1.38 billion. people India's population is expected to grow from today's 1.31 billion to 1.7 billion in 2050. In just seven years the number of Indians will exceed the number of Chinese.

The only major region in the world where the population is projected to fall noticeably is Europe. From 738 million Europeans today it is expected to fall to 707 million in the middle of the century and drop to 646 million in 2100. This means that where 1:10 people in the world today are European, it will at the end of the century only be 1:20.

Fertility in all European countries is now below the level needed to fully maintain the population in the long run - on average about 2.1 children per. woman. The current birthrate in Europe is 1.6.

Despite an expected increase in fertility in the middle of the century it will not be enough to slow the decline in the European population.

The big joker when it comes to European population development is migration in the form of immigration and refugee flows. A continuing poor Africa with a significantly growing, young population may well intensify the exodus to Europe.

The report says:

"Large and persistent economic and demographic asymmetries between countries is likely to remain powerful drivers of international migration in the foreseeable future."

With great reservations the UN report estimates that up to 2050 there will be a net immigration to Europe of 31 million people. The low birth rate, however, means that at that time there will be 32 million fewer people in Europe despite immigration.

The forecast, which says 11.2 billion people in 2100, presuposes that today's global average birth rate of 2.5 children per woman will have dropped to 2.0 in 2100.

A scenario where all countries  had a fertility rate that was half a child higher than in the middle scenario would result in a population of 16.6 billion in 2100, more than five billion. higher than the mean projection.

The decisive factor is therefore whether we manage to reduce the number of births per woman.

According to the report only about a third of women with childbearing potential who live in a relationship with a man in the least developed countries use contraceptives, while just one in five women in the same group doesnt get contraceptives despite a formulated request for them.

Where it took the entire period from the origin of man on Earth until about 1800 to reach the first billion, there has since 1960 been added one billion for each 12-13th years. The eighth billion will probably be reached in less than 10 years from now.

The report discusses  how a rapidly growing population that can reach 9.7 billion in the middle of the century and 11.2 billion by its end can live in harmony with access to resources, land, water and space as well as in balance with the environment and in accordance with the climate's carrying capacity.

Most of the population growth will occur in countries that are already struggle to provide enough resources for sustenance.

Many countries with rapidly growing populations are threatened by water scarcity or deforestation, others are struggling with conflict or political instability. Although progress can not be ruled out, a rapid population growth in these countries multiply the challenges. Their populations are demographically vulnerable and at greater risk of suffering from hunger, poverty, water shortages, environmental destruction and political upheaval.

The report cites as examples that Haiti already has lost 98 per cent of its forest cover and is expected to have a population growth of 50 per cent up to 2050, while Uganda - which today uses the country's natural resources twice as fast as the are restored - must look forward to a population growth of 168 per cent during the same period. Yemen, which is one of the countries in the world with its greatest pressure on water resources, can await 49 per cent. population growth, while Pakistan and Afghanistan with a corresponding water pressure can count on 80 percent. growth. In politically fragile, conflict-ridden countries such as Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo the report predict a population growth of 151 and 172 per cent 2050.

These perspectives may imply rapidly deteriorating problems in vulnerable countries as well as, perhaps, that the predicted population growth does not reach the expected levels because communities are affected by large environmental problems or climate disasters, food and water shortages or new wars and conflicts

The Population Institute points to reproductive health and reproductive rights as the key tool to curb birth rates and thus population growth in vulnerable countries.
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2015, 11:23:45 am »

Let's be realistic. It will probably be zero by 2100.
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