Bayh vs. Frist -a 2008 Election hypothetical

[Frodo]

with neither Jeb Bush or Mark Sanford now likely to run (at least if Ernest is right), the Republican Party has now nominated Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee as its 2008 presidential nominee and who has in turn chosen Virginia Sen. George Allen as his running mate. 

Democrats meanwhile have chosen Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh as its standard bearer (since Hillary Clinton has chosen to honor her New York constituents' request to serve out a full second term), with Virginia Gov. Mark Warner as his running mate.

in a head-to-head match-up, how well do you the two tickets will fare against the other, assuming any third party challenge is negligible?  what would the electoral maps look like?   

[A18]

George Allen would crush Bill Frist in the primary.

[Frodo]

George Allen would crush Bill Frist in the primary.

then let's suppose in this hypothetical that President Bush has chosen Frist as his anointed successor, and asked Allen to stand off, and let's Frist take his place as Bush's favored nominee. 

[A18]

What if the point to this poll other than you getting a result you want to see? Anyone beats Frist. Any governor beats Bayh.

[Rob]

Bayh would win easily. Bush fatigue + moderate Democrat + lackluster/cat-killing GOP nominee = Democratic victory. A map:



Bayh wins 332-206; the popular vote is 55-45, making it the greatest popular victory since 1984.

[George W. Hobbes]

Frist.

Election results depend on the state of the economy and if Bush gets a legacy legislative package passed that people like.

[Moooooo]

Bayh, obviously.

[Smash255]

Bayh wins 53-46 in the PV vote  352-186 EV

[A18]

He wins by more than that, in both PV and EV

[Smash255]

Frist.

Election results depend on the state of the economy and if Bush gets a legacy legislative package passed that people like.

Frist would lose to Bayh, Warner, Feingold, Gore, Kerry, Edwards, Clinton, Richardson, Clark and pretty much every other Democrat who ran.  I was being very conservative with my pick of 352-186, probably would be a larger Dem victory than that.  Frist has a lot of baggage & he makes Al Gore's personality & charisma seem great ( & I mean the Gore of 2000 not 92)

[A18]

I say Florida goes GOP, though. Give Montana, Arizona, the Dakotas, Arkansas, and Lousiana to Bayh.

West Virginia should be a shade darker. So should Virginia.

[Moooooo]

Philip, if Frist does slip through the cracks in 2008 and receives the nomination.  Will you vote Republican, Constitution, or Libertarian?

[TomC]

It'd be Bayh, Bayh Frist.

[Hitchabrut]

A democratic landslide.

[MODU]

Neither Bayh or Frist.  The general public likes candidates with names they can easily spell and pronounce.    But, looking at these two tickets, it's a week sell as they are set up.  Even if Frist was chosen by Bush, it would be up to the primary voters to choose, and Frist could possibly lose out or split with Allen or another strong Republican.  Bayh and Warner would probably go head-to-head in the primaries with a few splits as well.  If the tickets were reversed, you'd have a more realistic and interesting campaign.  Two VA governors (and possibly Senators if Warner were to win a seat) going for the big seat.  Neither would be able to claim VA right from the start, though Allen would have the better odds.  Warner would take MD easily, and the fight would be for WVA.  It could change the whole election, and I'm kinda looking forward to that match up. 

[Moooooo]

Neither Bayh or Frist.  The general public likes candidates with names they can easily spell and pronounce.    But, looking at these two tickets, it's a week sell as they are set up.  Even if Frist was chosen by Bush, it would be up to the primary voters to choose, and Frist could possibly lose out or split with Allen or another strong Republican.  Bayh and Warner would probably go head-to-head in the primaries with a few splits as well.  If the tickets were reversed, you'd have a more realistic and interesting campaign.  Two VA governors (and possibly Senators if Warner were to win a seat) going for the big seat.  Neither would be able to claim VA right from the start, though Allen would have the better odds.  Warner would take MD easily, and the fight would be for WVA.  It could change the whole election, and I'm kinda looking forward to that match up. 

MODU, who has the better record as Governor of VA?

[MODU]

MODU, who has the better record as Governor of VA?

In which capacity?  Better state stability?  Better financial management?  Better legislation?  etc....  It's tough to say (since they are limited to such a short period of service).

Virginia State did a study on this, and here is their statistically summary:
"Governor Job Performance'

As far as what I "feel," Allen did a better job of handling the states economy than Warner has.  Warner went against the advice of his counsel and 'locked' the State House in session until they approved his tax increase, which turned out wasn't needed and brought in a $1 Billion in tax surplus the following year (which now has to be spent since it cannot be returned).  Allen had toyed with a tax increase when he did his whole re-engineering of state education, but told the House to find ways to cut waste from the budget, which turned out to be successful.  Additionally, Allen pulled in much more private-sector revenue into the state, but then again, the economic conditions were different when he was in office.  Conversely, Warner has pulled in more government-sector revenue, largely in part to Homeland Security and the military.

[Moooooo]

MODU, who has the better record as Governor of VA?

In which capacity?  Better state stability?  Better financial management?  Better legislation?  etc....  It's tough to say (since they are limited to such a short period of service).

Virginia State did a study on this, and here is their statistically summary:
"Governor Job Performance'[url]

As far as what I "feel," Allen did a better job of handling the states economy than Warner has.  Warner went against the advice of his counsel and 'locked' the State House in session until they approved his tax increase, which turned out wasn't needed and brought in a $1 Billion in tax surplus the following year (which now has to be spent since it cannot be returned).  Allen had toyed with a tax increase when he did his whole re-engineering of state education, but told the House to find ways to cut waste from the budget, which turned out to be successful.  Additionally, Allen pulled in much more private-sector revenue into the state, but then again, the economic conditions were different when he was in office.  Conversely, Warner has pulled in more government-sector revenue, largely in part to Homeland Security and the military.

I knew the question was too broad.  Hmmm....  How about a report card?  What would your overall grade be for both Warner and Allen?

[skybridge]

Given the current premises these are the most likely presidential contenders in 2008. However, the vice-presidents don't seem quite right yet.

[MODU]

I knew the question was too broad.  Hmmm....  How about a report card?  What would your overall grade be for both Warner and Allen?

Allen:  A-  (shouldn't have waited for Gillmore to start the "No Car Tax" movement)
Warner:  B-/C+ (mostly due to financial management reasons)

[MissCatholic]

this could be a landslide if the bush admin do a typical second term job.

[AuH2O]

Um in the magical dream land where Bayh or Frist could win nominations, I guess Bayh would win. Great chance for a 3rd party though. Hell maybe a 4th too.

[Joe Republic]

Given the current premises these are the most likely presidential contenders in 2008.

No they're not.  Bayh would be a good candidate but still doesn't have quite enough name recognition yet to win the nomination.  Frist won't win the nomination, and would be a terrible candidate too.