Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger:

NDP: 33
Lib: 28
Cons: 27

So the surprise is the Tories are in third. But, this is not the first time Leger's numbers are off of the trend.

[DL]

Leger:

NDP: 33
Lib: 28
Cons: 27

So the surprise is the Tories are in third. But, this is not the first time Leger's numbers are off of the trend.

They are not actually "off the trend" this time. In fact Leger is almost identical to the Forum poll that came out yesterday

[Хahar 🤔]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

[cp]

Yeah, I'd agree the federal/provincial overlap is driving a lot of the support for the Liberals in Manitoba right now.

Added to that, however, there are long term factors that make Manitoba a little bit different than the other prairie provinces. A lot of them can be seen looking at one place: Winnipeg. It's a notably older settlement with a pattern of urban and demographic development that's more akin to the cities of Central Ontario than the rest of the prairies. It's had a longer and deeper history of union activity and radicalism than any of the other prairie cities, too; this helps the NDP most, of course, but it's also a sign that the rural individualism that characterizes the rest of the prairies (especially Alberta) has never been totally dominant.

Winnipeg's influence on Manitoba, moreover, is considerably greater than Saskatoon/Regina is on Saskatchewan or Calgary/Edmonton on Alberta. Winnipeg makes up more than 60% of Manitoba's population; those other cities don't even make up half of their respective provinces' populations (plus they're separate cities, diluting the urban influence somewhat).

If you're looking for a rough analogue to the United States for context, the situation of Chicago compared with Illinois/the rest of the midwest isn't a bad place to start.

P.S. Oh, and I forgot about the Metis: the descendants of aboriginal people and French trappers from the 18th/19th century who settled the area around Winnipeg. Nowhere else in the prairies has that (and francophones have been a generally more favourable demographic for the Liberal Party over the years).

[136or142]

One thing that's been puzzling me is how surprisingly robust and enduring Liberal support seems to be in Winnipeg--granted, it may be a strong slate of candidates, three retired CPC incumbents, and continued Selinger backlash; but, still.  (How are the *provincial* Liberals doing, anyway?)

Manitobans will not vote for the federal NDP no matter how popular they are in other provinces, as long as they have an unpopular provincial government. See 1988.

The NDP said they had something like 6% support in Manitoba prior to Gary Doer being elected leader in 1988. This time around most polls of the provincial NDP still have them at around 30%.  They should easily hold their two seats and at least challenge for one or two more if they are able to get 30% federally.

Regarding Winnipeg, it should also not be forgotten that many suburbs were amalgamated into Winnipeg in 1972 (under the Schreyer government)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalgamation_of_Winnipeg

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though be warned not to trust tiny poll subsamples all that much. We've been here before.

[Hatman 🍁]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

The provincial NDP was very unpopular 5 months prior to the 2011 Manitoba election. They only gained traction over the summer, thanks to the revival of the Winnipeg Jets and their handling of the floods.

I think you will see the NDP lose ground in Nova Scotia this time. They may not be in government any more, but I don't think many Nova Scotians are too willing to go back to them so soon. I think Chisholm is at risk of losing his seat, but the most recent provincial by-election in Dartmouth may indicate that the NDP has rebounded in Metro Halifax, so I don't know. At this point, I don't think the NDP is in a position to gain any seats in Nova Scotia.

As for Alberta, I don't think the NDP government is unpopular (yet?). Wildrose may be ahead in the polls, but that has more to do with people going back to their normal parties of support. A good chunk of people who voted NDP in the spring only voted NDP to kick out the Tories. Those people aren't necessarily left wing, and are now supporting Wildrose. These people were never going to vote for the federal NDP. Having said that, the NDP could pick up maybe 4 more seats in the province. 

[adma]

Re provincial affecting federal, I think a certain David Peterson bump helped the federal Grits in much of Ontario in '88, too...

[Krago]

Ontario: EKOS / Forum / Mainstreet / Leger / 2011 Election
Cons: 31 / 31 / 33 / 30 / 44.4
NDP: 32 / 33 / 31 / 31 / 25.6
Lib: 28 / 31 / 31 / 31 / 25.3
Grn: 7 / 4 / 5 / 5 / 3.8

So if Ontario stays a perfect three-way split all the way to Election Day, who wins the most seats?  I'm guessing the NDP, due to the inefficiency of the Liberal vote, but what say you psephologists?

[andrew_c]

Tories will win the most seats in Ontario if it is a 3-way race, due to vote splitting.

[136or142]

Tories will win the most seats in Ontario if it is a 3-way race, due to vote splitting.

This is the clear view of pretty much all the pollsters.

[136or142]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

The provincial NDP was very unpopular 5 months prior to the 2011 Manitoba election. They only gained traction over the summer, thanks to the revival of the Winnipeg Jets and their handling of the floods.

I think you will see the NDP lose ground in Nova Scotia this time. They may not be in government any more, but I don't think many Nova Scotians are too willing to go back to them so soon. I think Chisholm is at risk of losing his seat, but the most recent provincial by-election in Dartmouth may indicate that the NDP has rebounded in Metro Halifax, so I don't know. At this point, I don't think the NDP is in a position to gain any seats in Nova Scotia.

As for Alberta, I don't think the NDP government is unpopular (yet?). Wildrose may be ahead in the polls, but that has more to do with people going back to their normal parties of support. A good chunk of people who voted NDP in the spring only voted NDP to kick out the Tories. Those people aren't necessarily left wing, and are now supporting Wildrose. These people were never going to vote for the federal NDP. Having said that, the NDP could pick up maybe 4 more seats in the province. 

The Manitoba NDP also won reelection in 2011 on their effective campaign against the Manitoba P.Cs alleged 'hidden' plan to privatize crown corporations.  The right called it a 'fear campaign.'  Funny how they never label their own campaign's that.

In regards to Alberta, I believe the final centre/right, centre/left split of 52-48  is a fairly accurate reflection of where the people of Alberta are.  There has actually just been one poll that has come out since the election, the one you mentioned from Main Street Technologies that showed Wildrose in the lead.  We'll get a better sense of how accurate that firms polls are in the upcoming Calgary byelection.

I agree that the NDP could maybe pick up four more seats, but they may also surprise in Lethbridge.  The "anti" oil sands comment from Linda McQuaig echoed by some NDP candidate in Saskatchewan may, for all the I know, hurt the Conservatives the most.  I suspect the vast majority of potential NDP supporters in Edmonton share McQuaig's sentiment, and the people in Calgary who might be driven away from the NDP will most likely vote Liberal. So, the Liberals could also win 2-3 seats in Calgary.

[DC Al Fine]

So I spent today touring around Cumberland-Colchester and Central Nova with the wife. These are two fairly interesting seats. Here's what the sign situation is like:

Central Nova: Mostly Tory, with a few Liberal signs. Not a single NDP sign anywhere despite the NDP running a former MLA and being projected to win the seat.

Cumberland-Colchester: Maybe 50% Tory, 40% Liberal, 10% NDP. Not that signs are that predictive, but it's probably a sign that it will be a close race. When I visited in 2008 it was like 90% Casey signs.

[Njall]

Semi-interesting political happening from Calgary: Rick Hanson (former Calgary Police Chief and 2015 PC candidate endorses Liberal Nirmala Naidoo in Calgary Rocky Ridge.

[Smid]

Mainstreet Technologies shows a three-way race

Canada: Cons 30% NDP 30% Lib 29% Green 6% BQ 4%

Atlantic: Lib 43% Cons 26% NDP 24% Green 7%
Quebec: NDP 32% Lib 30% Cons 20% BQ 15% Green 3%
Ontario: Cons 33% NDP 31% Lib 31% Green 5%
Manitoba: Cons 44% Lib 34% NDP 17% Green 5%
Saskatchewan: Cons 46% NDP 29% Lib 18% Green 8%
Alberta: Cons 50% Lib 23% NDP 19% Green 7%
BC: NDP 40% Lib 25% Cons 22% Green 13%

I find Mainstreet number to be very whacky. Just two weeks ago they had the CPC at 45% in Ontario and the NDP at 21% - now they have the CPC at 33 and the NDP at 31 - does anyone seriously believe that a swing of that magnitude happened just in the last two weeks? ...and no other poll released this week has the Liberals anywhere near 30% in Quebec - they are hovering around 20%

It was very clearly a rogue poll. Looking at their crosstabs, they had a Conservative lead in every age group, with the largest Conservative lead in the 18-34 year age group (37C, 20L, 19N). I initially thought it might be a transcription error in that age breakdown, with the Conservative vote being entered against the NDP and the NDP vote being entered against the Conservatives, but it's obviously trickled through in other parts of the poll (NDP polling at just 16% in Ontario, 17% Prairies and 19% in Alberta?).

Here is the link again.

[DC Al Fine]

In other news, mailboxes are turning into a major election issue.

*Sigh*

[Krago]

Here's the poll round-up for the week:

Election (May 2, 2011) / Ipsos (Aug 7-10) / EKOS (Aug 5-11) / Forum (Aug 10-11) / Mainstreet (Aug 10-11) / Leger (Aug 10-12)

Canada	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	39.6	30.8	30.4	28	30	27
NDP	30.6	33	31.8	34	30	33
Lib	18.9	27.8	24.2	27	29	28
BQ	6.1	3.9	4.2	6	4	5
Green	3.9	4	7.3	4	6	6

Atlantic	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	37.9	18.4	20	25	26	15
NDP	29.5	31	33	28	24	36
Lib	29.3	46.6	35	41	43	41
Green	3.0	3.4	9	6	7	8

Quebec	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	16.5	19.3	20	17	20	17
NDP	42.9	41	36	37	32	40
Lib	14.2	22.3	20	22	30	21
BQ	23.4	16.4	18	21	15	21
Green	2.1	0.5	4	1	3	1

Ontario	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	44.4	33.1	31	31	33	30
NDP	25.6	28.8	32	33	31	31
Lib	25.3	32.9	28	31	31	31
Green	3.8	4.3	7	4	5	5

Man/Sask	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	54.9	47.4		43		36
NDP	28.9	26.6		26		21
Lib	12.7	21.4		27		33
Green	3.1	4.6		4		8

Manitoba	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	53.5		34		44
NDP	25.8		20		17
Lib	16.6		36		34
Green	3.6		8		5

Sask.	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	56.3		41		46
NDP	32.3		33		29
Lib	8.5		19		18
Green	2.6		5		8

Alberta	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	66.8	49.7	54	44	50	46
NDP	16.8	30.1	23	32	19	23
Lib	9.3	16.8	13	17	23	22
Green	5.2	3.5	8	5	7	8

B.C.	2011	Ipsos	EKOS	Forum	Mainstreet	Leger
Cons	45.6	27	29	27	22	23
NDP	32.5	37.1	35	38	40	36
Lib	13.4	25.8	21	29	25	26
Green	7.7	9.7	13	6	13	13

[adma]

Tories will win the most seats in Ontario if it is a 3-way race, due to vote splitting.

This is the clear view of pretty much all the pollsters.

Pollsters, but not necessarily psephologists.  I'm a bit of a contrarian here--even if they still have a plurality of Ontario seats in the end, I think the apparent Con advantage is artificially juiced up by incumbency and projection-model illusionism.  And at these numbers, the Libs won't necessarily be the monkey-in-the-middle they're presumed to be--it'll depend on how places like the 905 or the National Capital Region go.  And yes, I'm counting on Duffygate fallout--in which case, keep a careful eye on that Leger national 3rd place for the Tories.  It may be a false alarm; but, if it isn't...

[Krago]

A significant chunk of NDP support is very soft Liberals who want to put Stephen Harper in his political grave.  If the Tories drop to third, I foresee a big jump in Liberal support from both other parties.

[Mr. Morden]

Is there any significant difference between the three major parties in terms of how efficiently their support would translate into seats?  E.g., if it was a 33/33/33 national split, who would win the most seats?

[MaxQue]

Jose Nunez-Melo expelled from the NDP for publicly criticizing the nomination process.

Great debate articles.

Behind the Dipper comeback.

Well, they wanted to get rid of him. Anyways, he was grasping at every rule he found since February to not face a contested investiture, so I suspect he knew he had no local support.

He is now a Green.

[Hatman 🍁]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

The provincial NDP was very unpopular 5 months prior to the 2011 Manitoba election. They only gained traction over the summer, thanks to the revival of the Winnipeg Jets and their handling of the floods.

I think you will see the NDP lose ground in Nova Scotia this time. They may not be in government any more, but I don't think many Nova Scotians are too willing to go back to them so soon. I think Chisholm is at risk of losing his seat, but the most recent provincial by-election in Dartmouth may indicate that the NDP has rebounded in Metro Halifax, so I don't know. At this point, I don't think the NDP is in a position to gain any seats in Nova Scotia.

As for Alberta, I don't think the NDP government is unpopular (yet?). Wildrose may be ahead in the polls, but that has more to do with people going back to their normal parties of support. A good chunk of people who voted NDP in the spring only voted NDP to kick out the Tories. Those people aren't necessarily left wing, and are now supporting Wildrose. These people were never going to vote for the federal NDP. Having said that, the NDP could pick up maybe 4 more seats in the province. 

I agree that the NDP could maybe pick up four more seats, but they may also surprise in Lethbridge.

Those four seats include Lethbridge (Edm Griesbach, Edm Centre, Edm Manning being the others). The NDP could win Edm Mill Woods too on a good day.

[DC Al Fine]

This isn't a phenomenon limited to Manitoba. In general, in Canada, federal politics has little to no effect on provincial elections, but provincial politics can and does affect federal elections. Obviously this effect is strongest with the NDP, since the NDP is the most unified political party between the provinces and the Center. Dissatisfaction with the Bob Rae government torpedoed the federal NDP in Ontario in 1993, although (to be fair) it's not as if that campaign did better elsewhere. More recently, the only two provinces where the NDP saw no increase in its vote share in 2011 were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, which were also the only two provinces with NDP governments at the time. In the case of Manitoba, that NDP government wasn't even particularly unpopular at the time, since it was re-elected to a large majority just five months later, but the fact that it had been in power for twelve years killed the federal NDP's prospects all the same.

This year Alberta and Manitoba are the only provinces with NDP governments. The novelty of the NDP government in Alberta will probably help the federal party rather than hurt it (although a Mainstreet poll from a month and a half ago showed the provincial NDP trailing the Wildrose Party by a considerable margin), but now that the NDP government that has run Manitoba for the last sixteen years is genuinely unpopular it seems safe to say that the NDP won't be making many gains there.

I think you will see the NDP lose ground in Nova Scotia this time. They may not be in government any more, but I don't think many Nova Scotians are too willing to go back to them so soon. I think Chisholm is at risk of losing his seat, but the most recent provincial by-election in Dartmouth may indicate that the NDP has rebounded in Metro Halifax, so I don't know. At this point, I don't think the NDP is in a position to gain any seats in Nova Scotia.

It's not that much of a stretch for thme them to pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's. I agree that projections for them to win Central Nova are kind of ridiculous, but SS-St.M isn't that outrageous.

[Boston Bread]

I think some here are being too conservative with NDP pickup prospects. Nothing ridiculous about the NDP winning Central Nova if they do well in the Atlantic, considering how badly the Conservatives are polling there. And the NDP not winning Lethbridge would be a surprise.

[RogueBeaver]

In my riding, former Brewery Mission chief Jim Hughes won the Dipper nomination.