Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

He said for a while that the lead was stable, with small regional shifts.

Interesting article from Grit pollster Michael Marzolini.

[Linus Van Pelt]

There is a clear logical argument here - a ceremony about confirming a new identity done while concealing your identity by not showing your face is a contradiction.

This is a fallacy of equivocation.

In the sense of "identity" meaning, simply, which individual you are, then the niqab does conceal your identity. However, in this sense, the citizenship ceremony is not about confirming a new identity. You are the same individual, literally speaking, you always were.

In the sense of "identity" meaning which cultural or national group you identify with, the citizenship ceremony is about confirming a new identity. But the niqab does not hide one's identity at all in this sense. Indeed, showing up to a Canadian citizenship ceremony in a niqab boldly broadcasts one's identity as a conservative Muslim Canadian.

[politicus]

There is a clear logical argument here - a ceremony about confirming a new identity done while concealing your identity by not showing your face is a contradiction.

This is a fallacy of equivocation.

In the sense of "identity" meaning, simply, which individual you are, then the niqab does conceal your identity. However, in this sense, the citizenship ceremony is not about confirming a new identity. You are the same individual, literally speaking, you always were.

In the sense of "identity" meaning which cultural or national group you identify with, the citizenship ceremony is about confirming a new identity. But the niqab does not hide one's identity at all in this sense. Indeed, showing up to a Canadian citizenship ceremony in a niqab boldly broadcasts one's identity as a conservative Muslim Canadian.

Well to me the contradiction is not related to any claim the two types of identity are alike, the absurdity (which was the word I used the first time I mentioned it and better describes my intent than contradiction) is that if an individual is hidden from the world, she can not openly declare her allegiance. A declaration of allegiance done "in disguise" however symbolic and identity revealing that disguise is, is absurd.

[RogueBeaver]

Don't think there was a clear winner.

[2952-0-0]

Don't think there was a clear winner.

This fellow respectfully disagrees:
https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/650128338963398657

[136or142]

EKOS: 33.4/26.7/25.6.

That's not as strange as I thought it would be. The way Graves was talking, I thought he'd have the Tories at 40%

Cons are down two percent in this poll from the previous EKOS survey.

[136or142]

Stephen Harper's flip flops on Niqabs, religious accommodation and Canadian values.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's Feb. 16 Response to Same-Sex Marriage Bill C-38

1.When it came to same sex marriage, Stephen Harper argued that issues like that were basically a distraction:

"I also want to express today my disappointment in a sense that we are having such a debate. As we all remember, the expectations for the Prime Minister during the leadership race were very high. I will refer to that leadership race in a few moments.

What do we have today? We have no agreement on child care. We have a phantom deal on infrastructure. We have missing policy reviews on defence and foreign affairs. We have none of that famous fixed for a generation in health care. We have holes in federal agencies, the same old democratic deficit in the Senate, unaccountable foundations and, on the first day of a major environmental and economic accord to which the Prime Minister committed this country, we have no plan whatsoever and the Prime Minister does not speak about it. His only speech is on his new-found passion for same sex marriage because it is the only proposal of significance he has been able to lay before the House of Commons."

2.Stephen Harper argued that there was no definition of Canadian Values (more or less)
"The greater tragedy is the greater message in his speech, that if we do not accept his particular views on this legislation, then we are not truly Canadian. That is something that this party will never accept."

3.Most importantly Stephen Harper argued that when it came down to it, it was Canada that should adopt to the views of immigrants:

"In particular, it has been unforgiveably insensitive with regard to all cultural communities in this country for which marriage is a most deeply rooted value.

Nowhere have the Liberals been more vociferous in their attempts to link same sex marriage to minority rights than among Canada's ethnic and cultural minority communities. Yet at the same time, they have clearly wanted these communities excluded from this debate. Why? Because, to their embarrassment, the vast majority of Canada's cultural communities, setting aside those groups dependent on Liberal funding, see through the Liberals' attempt to link basic human rights to the government's opposition to their traditional practices of marriage.

Many new Canadians chose this country, fleeing regimes that did and do persecute religious, ethnic and political minorities. They know what real human rights abuses are. They know that recognizing traditional marriage in law while granting equal benefits to same sex couples is not a human rights abuse akin to what they may have seen in Rwanda or China or Iran.

What these new Canadians also understand, and what this government does not, is that there are some things more fundamental than the state and its latest fad. New Canadians know that marriage and family are not the creature of the state but pre-exist the state and that the state has some responsibility to uphold and defend these institutions.

New Canadians know that their deeply held cultural traditions and religious belief in the sanctity of marriage as a union of one man and one woman will be jeopardized by a law which declares them unconstitutional and brands their supporters as human rights violators.

New Canadians know that their cultural values are likely to come under attack if this law is passed. They know that we are likely to see disputes in the future over charitable status for religious or cultural organizations that oppose same sex marriage, or over school curriculum and hiring standards in both public and private religious and cultural minority schools.

New Canadians, many of whom have chosen Canada as a place where they can practise their religion and raise their family in accordance with their beliefs and without interference from the state, know that these legal fights will limit and restrict their freedom to honour their faith and their cultural practices.

Of course, in all of these cases, courts and human rights commissions will attempt to balance the basic human rights of freedom of religion and expression with the newly created legal right to same sex marriage, but as our justice critic has remarked, we have a pattern: wherever courts and tribunals are faced with a clash between equality rights and religious rights, equality rights seem to trump.

The Liberals may blather about protecting cultural minorities, but the fact is that undermining the traditional definition of marriage is an assault on multiculturalism and the practices in those communities.

All religious faiths traditionally have upheld the belief that marriage is a child-centred union of a man and a woman, whether Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Hindu, Sikh or Muslim. All of these cultural communities, rooted in those faiths, will find their position in society marginalized."

http://members.shaw.ca/brian.bogdan/blog_images/february/harper.htm

[King of Kensington]

New Innovative Research Group Poll:

Lib 31, NDP 29, Cons 29, Grn 6, BQ 5 , Oth 1

Their numbers for the Tories in Ontario and the Prairies are way too low for me to believe.

[cp]

Are they? 29% in Ontario is within the range of what the Tories get when they're not doing well. 33% in the Prairies might be a bit low, but that might just be a matter of the same size.

[DC Al Fine]

New Innovative Research Group Poll:

Lib 31, NDP 29, Cons 29, Grn 6, BQ 5 , Oth 1

Their numbers for the Tories in Ontario and the Prairies are way too low for me to believe.

Their Prairie sample size was less than their Atlantic Canada sample, and we all know how huge Atlantic Canada's margins of error are

[Smid]

EKOS: 33.4/26.7/25.6.

That's not as strange as I thought it would be. The way Graves was talking, I thought he'd have the Tories at 40%

Cons are down two percent in this poll from the previous EKOS survey.

However the previous pill had them up about six percent, which always seemed a bit high. This poll is therefore perhaps emphasising a modest increase in Conservative votes, rather than last week's exuberant increase in Conservative votes. A two percent fall following a six percent gain is still a four percent gain (or thereabouts after rounding).

[RogueBeaver]

TPP signed soon?

Le Devoir on the Dippers here.

Ivison on Brampton.

Breguet's latest projection.

[cp]

TPP might be in trouble, or at least another few days according to this

Either way, I tend to think this is lose-lose for the Tories. Either the talks fall through and they get the rug pulled out from under them, or it gets signed and the debate shifts back to the economy and away from the Niqab, i.e. away from the wedge issue they've been gaining on lately.

Meanwhile, Nanos shows the Liberals gaining, especially in BC and Ontario.

34.6/30.5/25.1

[DL]

I find the Nanos numbers in Ontario and BC impossible to believe. There is no way the Liberals are that high in Ontario and every singhle other poll has NDP support in Ontario in the 23-26 range (not 18%) and if you look at all the riding polls out in the past day, the numbers are more consistent with the NDP being in the mid 20s

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like soft NDP supporters are starting to move to the Liberals, if those numbers are true.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Man, imagine how high the liberals would be in Ontario if Tim Hudak had won the last election?

[136or142]

Man, imagine how high the liberals would be in Ontario if Tim Hudak had won the last election?

One good thing about Tim Hudak (and surprising as well) he's a big fan of Billy Bragg's music.

[2952-0-0]

http://www.news1130.com/2015/10/02/conservative-issues-immigrants-backfiring/

Reasonable to assume the same thing is occurring in the 905 area. The implications for both this election and the future are serious.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sad. Canada seemed to be the one country where conservatives, no matter their flaws, were at least egalitarian enough to have a diverse base. Deeply disappointing.

[136or142]

Sad. Canada seemed to be the one country where conservatives, no matter their flaws, were at least egalitarian enough to have a diverse base. Deeply disappointing.

They did have a diverse base.  They've blown it so far by demonizing Muslims and East Indians.

[DavidB.]

Curious if this will affect voting patterns among Sephardic Jews - probably not at all, I suppose most of them voted Conservative and will vote Conservative. Are there any data where Canadian Sephardic Jews are polled as a distinct category?

[andrew_c]

Man, imagine how high the liberals would be in Ontario if Tim Hudak had won the last election?

If that's the case, I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals are polling at Chretien levels.

[Foucaulf]

http://www.news1130.com/2015/10/02/conservative-issues-immigrants-backfiring/

Reasonable to assume the same thing is occurring in the 905 area. The implications for both this election and the future are serious.

1) I can't find the actual poll release for this at all.

2) To whatever extent this is true, the Tories are triaging by making weed an issue again.

[DavidB.]

The anti-weed campaign is really stupid. What on earth does Harper think he's doing? This is not the way to win the elections.

[2952-0-0]

http://www.news1130.com/2015/10/02/conservative-issues-immigrants-backfiring/

Reasonable to assume the same thing is occurring in the 905 area. The implications for both this election and the future are serious.

1) I can't find the actual poll release for this at all.

2) To whatever extent this is true, the Tories are triaging by making weed an issue again.

Appealing to immigrant groups' sense of law and order won't work when when the CPC has already proven to be willing to resort to racism when they're lagging in the polls. Trust *lost* is almost impossible to win back.