Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DavidB.]

Since the Conservatives have apparently taken the (in my view quite extreme) position that "Abortions should be allowed in all cases, regardless of the reason", I'm not really surprised that I'm supposedly more conservative than they are.

[DavidB.]

Since the Conservatives have apparently taken the (in my view quite extreme) position that "Abortions should be allowed in all cases, regardless of the reason", I'm not really surprised that I'm supposedly more conservative than they are. And I'm not even an extreme pro-lifer, being in favor of allowing abortions almost until the end of the first trimester. I was truly surprised by this, although it would definitely not be a deal breaker for me.

[DavidB.]

As answered in the other thread:

Since the Conservatives have apparently taken the (in my view quite extreme) position that "Abortions should be allowed in all cases, regardless of the reason", I'm not really surprised that I'm supposedly more conservative than they are. And I'm not even an extreme pro-lifer, being in favor of allowing abortions almost until the end of the first trimester. I was truly surprised by this, although it would definitely not be a deal breaker for me.

Abortion is complicated here. The abortion law got stuck down in the late 80's and the Supreme Court gave 1 year to the government to pass a new law. The Progressive-Conservative Party (as it was called back then), which had 75% of seats, never managed to agree on a new law (their then mix of social conservative, liberal Quebec nationalists and socially liberal suburban and urban upper class had quite opposed views on this). So, the law was stucked down and nobody wants a law about it (taking a stand for abortion goes very badly in rural areas and if Conservatives wanted to restrain it, they would suddently go extinct in Toronto and its suburbs, making them lose all hopes of ever getting in government until they change their mind). So, the law right now is whatever restrictions the Royal College of Medecine of Canada decides.

In short, Canada is too socially liberal for a party wanting to restrain abortion to win. So, Conservatives just shut up about it. Same thing for gay marriage. And, even if they took those positions, many of Conservative suburban and Quebec MPs would just vote against their party.

Thaknks for explaining this! I already had a feeling this position might essentially be a status-quo position, born out of fear of losing votes. I'm glad that the Conservatives didn't try (and don't want to try) to revert the legalization of same-sex marriage.

[DavidB.]

From a comment on the Globe and Mail article on this.  This is the most up voted comment on the article:

sagavir1 1 hour ago
I'm Jewish,have spent time in Israel and taught in Jerusalem, and not only do I agree with the candidate's comparison of the Haredim with the Taliban in terms of attitudes towards women, democracy, and gays and lesbians, I encountered many Israelis who feel the same way about the Haredim. It's a very defensible comparison and I'm disappointed that the NDP did not stand by this candidate. Has the party of principle become the party of pandering?

Yeah, Jews who speak negatively about other Jews tend to be popular among many non-Jews. Always extremely revealing.

I'm sure many members of the German NPD will agree with the comments of the Canadian NDP guy. Always the same trick, considering the moronic ideas of some crazy, utterly insignificant Hasidic sect suddenly representative for all Haredim. Shows that people, both non-Jews and assimilated Jews, are still so much - unconsciously - inclined to believe negative things about Ashkenazi Jews who are not assimilated and who dress "stereotypical". Good that the guy had to step down.

More riding polls:

Mount Royal
50-27-16-7

Isn't this the most Jewish riding? I thought most Canadian Jews were Conservative?

[DavidB.]

The Hassidim are not some tiny sect. There are large communities of them in Montreal and Toronto and in Israel they are quite a vast population and the ultra-orthodox run several political party such as Shas etc... and its a fact that women are treated like sh**t in those ultra-orthodox communities. They are forced to shave their heads and wear wigs, they are not allowed to interact with any men who aren't close relatives, they are not allowed to work or set foot outside the community, in divorce courts the man's word has 100% of the weight and the woman's has zero. These are the people who make everyone switch seats on planes because God forbid that an ultra-orthodox man might have to breathe the same air as a woman!

There are extremist sects in Islam that treat women like sh**t and there are also extremist sects in Judaism (and in just about every other religion) that treat women like sh**t. Tell me something i didn't already know.

"Hasidim" in general are not "some tiny sect", but Hasidim don't all follow the same leader. They are divided in various Hasidic groups - some of them extremely large, some of them extremely small, and then everything between those two extremes. These various Hasidic groups follow various leaders, have different customs etc. Your enumeration doesn't show much knowledge of the diversity of opinions and styles within the Hasidic world. As someone who knows this world very well, I can tell you that it is simply not true that women are "treated like sh**t" or oppressed in general, though sadly there are - mostly very insignificant, extreme, cult-like - groups in which this is different. You don't seem to understand the nuances in regard to laws regarding "get", and  many Hasidic women do actually work, mostly within their communities - and even if women don't work, then so what? In short, your comment is full of bigotry toward people with a different lifestyle and it shows a paternalistic attitude toward "the other".

It is perfectly legitimate for people not to live a Westernized lifestyle and to hold different opinions than progressives. Get over it.

[DavidB.]

Not quite. That honour goes to Thornhill, which is a safe Tory seat.

As for why the Tories aren't doing as well in Mount Royal as they are in Thornhill:

1) Mount Royal is mostly "secular Jews". Thornhill has a lot more Orthodox/Ultra-Orthodox.

2) The Liberals are running a prominent member of the Jewish community. The Tory candidate is also prominent and Jewish, but also used to lead a controversial Anglo rights party, which doesn't help with the decent sized francophone population.

I should note, that Quebec and especially, Montreal politics isn't really my strong suit. Rogue Beaver or one of the other central Canadians can probably give you a more detailed explanation.

Got it, thanks. It seems logical that secular, well-to-do Jews in a Montréal suburb vote Liberal.

I am also interested in the Ashkenazi/Sephardi vote divide. There seem to be quite some Sephardim in Canada, often of North African descent. I assume that Canadian non-Orthodox Ashkenazim tend to be richer and more inclined to vote Liberal, this electoral tendency becoming increasingly less strong if people are more traditional/connected to Israel. Sephardim, on the other hand, seem to be less well-off, more traditional in terms of religion, and more inclined to vote Conservative. Is this true? And in what places/ridings are there big Sephardic Jewish communities? Mostly in Quebec/the Montréal area, I'd guess, since it was easier for them to integrate into a francophone society, given the countries they come from.

Back in his day Trudeau the Elder tended to get hilariously large majorities there. I suspect the sharp rise in the Tory vote over the past decade (going from 9% in 2004 to 36% in 2011) largely comes from the Jewish community and Harper's emphasis on foreign policy and so on.

Interesting!

[DavidB.]

Keep in mind that while Mount Royal is the second most heavily Jewish riding in Canada - it is still only 30% Jewish and the other 70% of the riding are much like the rest of west Montreal a mix of anglophone and allophones and francophones all united by an intense hatred of the Conservative party!

Most polls have the Conservatives in single digits in Montreal - so in Mount Royal - even if the Conservative candidate did well and lets' be very generous and say that he gets two-thirds of the Jewish vote and the Liberal gets one-third (I doubt if that will happen but hear me out) - that means the Tory gets 20% of all votes and the Liberal gets 10% - but then among the other 70% - you will likely see the Tory get about 10% (7%) and the NDP say 20% (14%) and the other 70% would likely go Liberal (49%). Add it all up and you get Liberal 59%, Conservative 27%.

What I actually expect in Mount Royal is that the Jewish vote will more or less split down the middle and the Liberals will beat the Conservatives among non-Jews by about a 6 to 1 margin and win the riding very easily

Interesting, thanks.

Yeah and so what, the same could be said of Islam which also has countless sects and that don't all follow the same leader and that have different customs - yet that doesnt stop people from stereotyping all of Islam as being backward and barbaric etc...the candidate in question was making a perfectly valid point - namely that within every religion there are extremist sects that are very oppressive towards women and sexual minorities, and that just like Islam has Taliban, there are extreme sects of ultra-orthodox Judaism that are also quite barbaric. What's the big deal? Its true!

You seem to have implicitly rephrased your point: "extreme sects of" is something different than "all Hasidim". As to me, I am not considering "all of Islam backward and barbaric" and I think doing so is a gross misrepresentation of the differences within Islam, so you're barking up the wrong tree. I am not concerned about Muslims eating differently, dressing differently, slaughtering differently, praying differently. They should feel free to do so. I am only concerned about certain Islamic movements that seek to curb the freedom of other people in society, or that accept the use of violence in order to disturb society.

The most important differences between Taliban and these groups are firstly that the Taliban didn't leave alone people of a different "lifestyle", whereas these tiny Jewish sects might be radical toward its members, but they don't want to influence the lifestyle of others. Secondly, the Taliban regime was supported by many people whereas these extreme Jewish sects are insignificant in terms of adherents. Thirdly, the Taliban operated as the Afghan government whereas oppressed people in crazy sects, Jewish and non-Jewish, have the full right to leave these sects under Canadian (and American, and Israeli, and UK) law, even if it might be extremely hard to do so in practice. So while the comparison might superficially strike a chord, it is not rooted in reality and it only serves to demonize people of a different lifestyle - bear in mind that most Hasidim don't "hate women" or so. A potential representative of people adhering to many different lifestyles should know better.

[DavidB.]

Why is Bloc Québécois in favour of banning it?

[DavidB.]

What would be likely to happen if the result is like Con 36, Lib 33, NDP 26, the Tories don't have a majority, and Lib/NDP would have a majority? Conservative minority (trainwreck) government, Liberal minority government with outside NDP support, or a Lib-NDP coalition?

[DavidB.]

Curious if this will affect voting patterns among Sephardic Jews - probably not at all, I suppose most of them voted Conservative and will vote Conservative. Are there any data where Canadian Sephardic Jews are polled as a distinct category?

[DavidB.]

The anti-weed campaign is really stupid. What on earth does Harper think he's doing? This is not the way to win the elections.

[DavidB.]

The anti-weed campaign is really stupid. What on earth does Harper think he's doing? This is not the way to win the elections.

I'd suggest two possibilities:

1) The Tories are trying to use it as a wedge to win over ethnic minorities (Optimistic answer)

2) The Tories feel they are in trouble and are trying to turn out their base (Pessimistic answer)

Either way, they are probably hoping that pro-weed people either don't care enough to change their vote or are so pro-drug that they'd never consider the Tories anyway. This sort of thing can work,  although I'm inclined to think its a bad idea in this case.

1) Why would minorities be anti-weed? Even if they are "socially conservative", this seems like one of these issues most people with a foreign background don't really care about.

 2) Hmmm. It seems like they're using it to look really "ideological", which doesn't make any sense because they don't face any threats to their right, and I doubt they should worry about turnout among steadfast conservatives - it's rather moderate voters who could also vote for the Liberals they should worry about, and this seems like the exact wrong tactic to convince these people. It seems like Harper and his advisors truly don't know what they are doing.

[DavidB.]

Forum: 37/31/23. Hoping that whatever the outcome, someone gets a majority.

Your colors aren't right: you mixed up the Tories and the Grits. You had me hoping for a near Conservative majority This ought to be a crime

[DavidB.]

To even suggest the possibility of a unilingual leader for any of the big three federal parties is absurd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrliDQs1Jps

[DavidB.]

Yes, this is obviously going to be the end for Harper, unless something dramatic happens.

[DavidB.]

What's more, it doesn't seem that the Liberals could be considered entirely part of the "left movement". Most of them are progressive but centrist or center-right when it comes to the economy, and some of them are quite right-wing: a united Lib-NDP front would probably lose a sizable amount of right-wing Libs to the Tories.

[DavidB.]

Lol @ the Globe.

"The Conservatives have been a big tent party in the past, and they must be once again. Fiscally prudent, economically liberal and socially progressive"

Sounds like they are looking for the Liberal Party

[DavidB.]

As for the Tories, Jason Kenney seems to be the man with the smart money on him, but it's worth mentioning that the only person who has expressed openly an interest in running for the leadership of the Tories is Rob Ford.

lmao

That will certainly change the Tories' stance on drug legalization.

[DavidB.]

Would these numbers lead to a Liberal majority?

[DavidB.]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

The question is also whether he'll be re-elected in the first place.