Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Linus Van Pelt]

White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA.

This doesn't seem right. What is the evidence for this?

[Linus Van Pelt]

A new Insights West poll of B.C. - 41/24/21/12

subsamples (not clear what the margin of error is on these):
Metro Vancouver - 43/25/23/8
Vancouver Island - 39/33/15/15
Rest of BC - 37/26/25/11

http://www.insightswest.com/news/british-columbians-moving-away-from-conservatives-in-canadian-campaign/

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wait, what happened to cap and trade? Is it not part of the "fiscal" plan? It would raise revenue. Surely they're not dropping it; it was one of Mulcair's main themes in the leadership race.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wait, what happened to cap and trade? Is it not part of the "fiscal" plan? It would raise revenue. Surely they're not dropping it; it was one of Mulcair's main themes in the leadership race.

When asked, the party said than all the program isn't announced yet.

OK.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I kind of hate "this person compared x to y" scandals. To make a comparison or analogy is not to say that the two things are identical in all respects.

The analogy between the Haredim and the Taliban is a poor one, since the Taliban are not a sect but a political and military movement. Someone in a village outside Kandahar who practices a very conservative Wahabbism in their private life, but does not engage in political activity, is not a member of the Taliban. But one can be Haredi just by leading one's private life in a certain way without political activism. Indeed, the Hasidim in Canada, unlike in Israel, seem mostly pretty detached from party politics.

But still, I think it's a negative trend that you have to watch your language so closely, when you are a private citizen before coming a candidate, to avoid some party staffer blocking you from running.

This sense that you can't run for office without having had your whole life approved by a PR department is one reason for the appeal of people like the Fords or Donald Trump.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The other surprising thing about all this is how these people appear to have their personal Facebook accounts publicly viewable. Surely that would be easy for party HQ to tell them not to do.

[Linus Van Pelt]

St. Albert-Edmonton
38-29-19-11

What's the black?  Is that Inky Mark's (new) riding?

It's Brent Rathgeber, the incumbent who was elected as a Conservative but has been an independent for a couple of years.

[Linus Van Pelt]

There is a clear logical argument here - a ceremony about confirming a new identity done while concealing your identity by not showing your face is a contradiction.

This is a fallacy of equivocation.

In the sense of "identity" meaning, simply, which individual you are, then the niqab does conceal your identity. However, in this sense, the citizenship ceremony is not about confirming a new identity. You are the same individual, literally speaking, you always were.

In the sense of "identity" meaning which cultural or national group you identify with, the citizenship ceremony is about confirming a new identity. But the niqab does not hide one's identity at all in this sense. Indeed, showing up to a Canadian citizenship ceremony in a niqab boldly broadcasts one's identity as a conservative Muslim Canadian.

[Linus Van Pelt]

To elaborate on what Toaster said.

Algoma-Mantoulin-Kapuskasing
45-30-20

Timmins-James Bay
62-21-11

It feels like the NDP is generally overperforming in riding polls a bit, not just these two.

I'm not sure what this means - the riding polls could be junk, for all I know.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Also, I just realized there is a place in Saskatchewan called Moose Mountain. Unless there's some hilly part of Saskatchewan I don't know about, that has got to be one of the worst misnomers in the country.

Moose Mountain:


Not the Rockies, but not bad by eastern standards.