NH-Boston Herald: It Happened

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders 44%
Clinton 37%
Biden 9%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%
O'Malley 0%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among Democratic primary voters:

Sanders 76/8% for +68%
Biden 79/16% for +63%
Clinton 80/18% for +62%
O'Malley 26/10% for +16%
Webb 20/13% for +7%
Chafee 17/21% for -4%

So yes, Sanders now has over 80% name recognition among NH Dems, and Clinton has a slightly worse favorability margin with NH Dems than both Sanders and Biden.

Sanders also has 54% who view him "very favorably", whereas it's 36% for Clinton.

59% of Clinton supporters say they still might change their mind, as do 56% of Sanders supporters, so there's plenty of room for further changes in the polls.

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among....?

Democrats: Clinton
Independents: Sanders
very liberal: Sanders
somewhat liberal: Clinton
moderate: Sanders
voting on electability: Clinton
voting on issues: Sanders
men: Sanders
women: Clinton
under age 65: Sanders
over age 65: Clinton
income less than $100,000: Sanders
income more than $100,000: Clinton

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo has a bunch of graphs comparing this result to the same pollster's results from their March poll, back when they were including Warren:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/12/a-few-asterisks-on-that-bernie-sanders-lead-in-new-hampshire-poll/



Favorable (and "very favorable") numbers from March compared to now:



Clinton vs. Sanders by age:

[Mr. Morden]

So it's only people who are actually in the Clinton/Sanders age bracket that are supporting Clinton.

Yep.  Clarence is part of her core demographic (except for the part about him being a white male).

[Mr. Morden]

You know it was just about this time 16 years ago that liberal alternative Bill Bradley first lead in a NH poll vs. the big frontrunner establishment choice (Al Gore).  In the end Bradley came very close to carrying NH and did well in a few northeast states, but ended up losing every state because he couldn't expand beyond his strength with liberal white men.

Yep.  The parallels are eerie.

Though another part of the story is that, once Gore fell behind Bradley in the New Hampshire polls, he retooled his campaign, pushed for more debates, and went negative on Bradley.

We'll see whether HRC follows that script as well.