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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  MO-PPP: Hillary down by between 7-15 points, Sanders by about the same
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Author Topic: MO-PPP: Hillary down by between 7-15 points, Sanders by about the same  (Read 5594 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 12, 2015, 12:52:15 am »

In 2008 the Presidential race was basically a tie in Missouri but Mitt Romney won the state easily in 2012 and it doesn't look like there's a ton of hope for a Democratic victory there next year either.

Clinton trails all of the Republicans in the state by margins ranging from 7 to 15 points. Marco Rubio fares the best, leading her by 15 points at 51/36. Ben Carson leads her by 14 at 52/38, and John Kasich (49/36), Scott Walker (50/37) and Mike Huckabee (51/38) each lead her by 13 points.

The GOP hopefuls Clinton comes closest to are Jeb Bush who she trails by 7 at 47/40, and Donald Trump and Chris Christie who she has 9 point deficits against at 48/39 and 46/37 respectively. In between are Carly Fiorina who leads Clinton by 10 at 47/37, and Rand Paul (49/37) and Ted Cruz (50/38) who each lead Clinton by 12 points.

We found on our Iowa poll that Clinton and Bernie Sanders weren't faring that different from each other in general election match ups against the Republicans and that trend presents itself in Missouri as well. Sanders does worse than Clinton against Bush, trailing 47/34. But his 15 point deficit against Rubio (48/33) is the same as Clinton's, his 9 point deficit against Trump (48/39) is the same as Clinton's, and he actually does a tick better than Clinton against Walker trailing by 12 points compared to her 13 at 46/34. On average Sanders only does a point worse than Clinton in the comparable match ups.

Missouri does present more evidence of the threat a Donald Trump independent bid could pose to the Republican Party though. He actually beats out Jeb Bush as a third party candidate, getting 30% to 29% for Bush with Clinton leading the way at 34%. Trump leads with independents at 37%, and gets 39% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats as well.

...

Public Policy Polling surveyed 859 voters from August 7th to 9th, including 440 Republican
primary voters and 352 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is
+/-3.3%, for the Republican primary voters its +/-4.7%, and for the Democratic primary voters
its +/-5.2%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2015, 12:55:27 am »

Sanders is unknown to 4/10 MO-voters, Hilldog only to 7% - yet he already polls as well as she does.

Yeah, he's so "unelectable" ... Roll Eyes
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2015, 12:59:20 am »

Sanders is unknown to 4/10 MO-voters, Hilldog only to 7% - yet he already polls as well as she does.

Yeah, he's so "unelectable" ... Roll Eyes

Sanders will be "unelectable" until he wins.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2015, 01:05:55 am »

Clinton matchups

Bush 47%
Clinton 40%

Carson 52%
Clinton 38%

Christie 46%
Clinton 37%

Cruz 50%
Clinton 38%

Fiorina 47%
Clinton 37%

Huckabee 51%
Clinton 38%

Kasich 49%
Clinton 36%

Paul 49%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 51%
Clinton 36%

Trump 48%
Clinton 39%

Walker 50%
Clinton 37%

3-way

Clinton 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%

Sanders matchups

Bush 47%
Sanders 34%

Rubio 48%
Sanders 33%

Trump 48%
Sanders 39%

Walker 46%
Sanders 34%
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2015, 01:06:41 am »

I think we can safely say MO is officially a red state.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2015, 01:07:57 am »

I think we can safely say MO is officially a red state.

MO is trending GOP since when now ? 1992 ?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2015, 01:08:10 am »

A lot of progressives don't like to go on the attack and take the gloves off, so the question is if Sanders is willing to do that and can actually run a strong campaign. That makes a huge difference.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2015, 01:09:32 am »

I have always said that MO is less competitive than GA and AZ and that the fact that it has consistently trended republican since the 90s means it will, at best for dems, vote 10 or 11 points to the nation's right in 2016, quite possibly more than that. I shall now accept my accolades.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2015, 01:10:06 am »

I think we can safely say MO is officially a red state.

MO is trending GOP since when now ? 1992 ?

Yes
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2015, 01:15:43 am »

I was curious about the 3-way Bush/Clinton/Trump matchup.  Here's who leads with various subsamples:

liberal: Clinton
moderate: Clinton
conservative: Bush
men: Trump
women: Clinton
Democrats: Clinton
Republicans: Bush
Independents: Trump
whites: Bush/Trump tie
blacks: Clinton
other race: Bush
age 18-29: Clinton
age 30-45: Trump
age 46-65: Clinton
age 65+: Bush
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2015, 01:17:50 am »

The interesting thing about Bush/Clinton/Trump is that Trump is more popular with relatively center-right voters than hardline conservatives.  He is the new Perot in a lot of ways (in a country that's shifted quite a bit to the left since '92).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2015, 01:22:07 am »

The interesting thing about Bush/Clinton/Trump is that Trump is more popular with relatively center-right voters than hardline conservatives.  He is the new Perot in a lot of ways (in a country that's shifted quite a bit to the left since '92).

Yes, in fact even in the primary part of this poll, he does slightly better among "moderates" than "conservatives".  It's Carson, Cruz, and Huckabee who are relying more on the self-described "very conservative" voters.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2015, 01:39:22 am »

The interesting thing about Bush/Clinton/Trump is that Trump is more popular with relatively center-right voters than hardline conservatives.  He is the new Perot in a lot of ways (in a country that's shifted quite a bit to the left since '92).

Yes, in fact even in the primary part of this poll, he does slightly better among "moderates" than "conservatives".  It's Carson, Cruz, and Huckabee who are relying more on the self-described "very conservative" voters.

Partially serves to confirm a theory of mine; going left on immigration actually hurts Republicans more than it helps.  Within the GOP the ones who are in favor of it are generally wealthy businesspeople (the GOP's most consistent "base" group since its founding in 1854), while I would expect (moderate || swing || persuadable) voters, generally middle-class whites who do not attend church weekly, to be pretty strongly opposed.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2015, 02:00:53 am »

I think we can safely say MO is officially a red state.

Despite Obama's near win in 2008, I think I agree.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2015, 02:12:03 am »

Didn't people on here say that Hillary would be competitive in Missouri? Its spectacularly awesome to watch her decline everywhere.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2015, 02:15:47 am »

3-way

Clinton 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%

Woah, Trump coming in 2nd?
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IndyRep
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2015, 02:16:48 am »

I have always said that MO is less competitive than GA and AZ and that the fact that it has consistently trended republican since the 90s means it will, at best for dems, vote 10 or 11 points to the nation's right in 2016, quite possibly more than that. I shall now accept my accolades.

Same here, though anyone who isn't a Democratic hack should have realized that. The fact that even joke Republicans are leading Clinton by that much is really telling. Face it: Hillary Clinton has a problem with White voters and it's worse than with Obama.

Btw: Remember when most Democrats were dismissing this poll?
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Higgs
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2015, 02:18:50 am »

Wow Trumps performance really surprises me. I didn't think Missouri was this securely Republican, guess I'll have to change my Trump vs Clinton map.

btw lol at Jeb in third in the three way race.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2015, 06:44:17 am »

Primary voters -- thus not a valid prediction of results in a general election. Final results are likely to be much closer than this -- but not close enough. 

That said, Hillary Clinton is not going to win Missouri unless in a three-way race in which Donald Trump makes a strong showing.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2015, 06:47:58 am »

Primary voters -- thus not a valid prediction of results in a general election. Final results are likely to be much closer than this -- but not close enough. 

That said, Hillary Clinton is not going to win Missouri unless in a three-way race in which Donald Trump makes a strong showing.

You realize that this is a general election poll and not a primary poll ?
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2015, 07:14:13 am »

Primary voters -- thus not a valid prediction of results in a general election. Final results are likely to be much closer than this -- but not close enough. 

That said, Hillary Clinton is not going to win Missouri unless in a three-way race in which Donald Trump makes a strong showing.

You realize that this is a general election poll and not a primary poll ?

Well, the hacks are getting really desperate. Nothing to see here. Smiley
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mencken
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2015, 08:19:47 am »
« Edited: August 12, 2015, 08:41:41 am by mencken »

The interesting thing about Bush/Clinton/Trump is that Trump is more popular with relatively center-right voters than hardline conservatives.  He is the new Perot in a lot of ways (in a country that's shifted quite a bit to the left since '92).

Yes, in fact even in the primary part of this poll, he does slightly better among "moderates" than "conservatives".  It's Carson, Cruz, and Huckabee who are relying more on the self-described "very conservative" voters.

Partially serves to confirm a theory of mine; going left on immigration actually hurts Republicans more than it helps.  Within the GOP the ones who are in favor of it are generally wealthy businesspeople (the GOP's most consistent "base" group since its founding in 1854), while I would expect (moderate || swing || persuadable) voters, generally middle-class whites who do not attend church weekly, to be pretty strongly opposed.

Who would have thought that self-disenfranchisement would be a poor strategy?

Oh, and for those keeping score at home, a 15% GOP win in Missouri would be consistent with a 6% GOP swing from 2012, or a 2% national win. Which is also consistent with her recent polling numbers in Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Illinois. And Colorado and Virginia if you believe Quinnipiac. But I guess those states have not gotten the memo about Hillary's inevitability?
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yeah_93
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2015, 11:14:03 am »

So much for expanding the map.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2015, 12:17:32 pm »

So much for expanding the map.

Clinton can still expand map;.272 is her target; but winning OH and Va is her priority too, as Fairfax Va,  is a suburb of DC.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2015, 12:32:58 pm »

So much for expanding the map.

Clinton can still expand map;.272 is her target; but winning OH and Va is her priority too, as Fairfax Va,  is a suburb of DC.

Expanding the map means carrying states Obama lost in 2012. Obama won OH and VA. If Clinton loses OH and VA, she's going to lose FL and CO as well, which puts her under 270.
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