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December 13, 2019, 04:48:30 pm
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  IA-CNN Dems: Hillary 50, Sanders 31
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Author Topic: IA-CNN Dems: Hillary 50, Sanders 31  (Read 2479 times)
Skye
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« on: August 12, 2015, 04:14:47 pm »
« edited: August 12, 2015, 04:22:40 pm by yeah_93 »

Clinton still strong in Iowa

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-poll-clinton-sanders-iowa/index.html

Clinton 50
Sanders 31
Biden 12
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chafee 0

WITHOUT BIDEN
Clinton 58
Sanders 32

Poll in question: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-iowa-caucus/index.html
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2015, 04:39:01 pm »

... What's the MoE on this? O'Malley usually polls about ~7%.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2015, 04:40:26 pm »

... What's the MoE on this? O'Malley usually polls about ~7%.

He polled 7% once. He's otherwise only been at 2-3% the whole time.
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2015, 04:42:02 pm »

Quote
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There you go.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2015, 04:47:40 pm »

It's pretty amazing that Iowa is proving to be a better state for Clinton than New Hampshire.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2015, 05:07:56 pm »

It definitely looks like Biden could benefit Sanders as shown in pretty much every other poll with/without Biden. I would be curious to see how this would continue to play out if Biden actually enters. I could see Sanders losing a bit of support from people who mostly liked him because he isn't Clinton. I do think that it wouldn't affect Sanders too much (and would still lower the margin between Hillary and Bernie).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2015, 06:13:57 pm »

It's pretty amazing that Iowa is proving to be a better state for Clinton than New Hampshire.

Don't be surprised if that isn't the case by Feb. '16.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2015, 09:07:32 pm »

men:

Clinton 38%
Sanders 37%

women:

Clinton 58%
Sanders 26%

urban:

Clinton 46%
Sanders 37%

rural:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 21%

liberal:

Clinton 46%
Sanders 41%

moderate:

Clinton 57%
Sanders 21%
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2015, 09:19:18 pm »

No change. I think that NH poll was a bit optimistic. Clinton probably has a small lead in that state. But, SC will be horrid for Bernie.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2015, 09:24:30 pm »

urban:

Clinton 46%
Sanders 37%

rural:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 21%

I'd be interested in more polls that have rural/urban numbers. I remember that some of us (myself included) thought that Sanders would do well in Iowa because of the large rural population reminiscent of Vermont. Maybe it would play out in somewhere more rural like North Dakota?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2015, 11:51:55 pm »

It's pretty amazing that Iowa is proving to be a better state for Clinton than New Hampshire.

Not exactly, New England is Bernie territory.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2015, 02:54:36 am »

It's pretty amazing that Iowa is proving to be a better state for Clinton than New Hampshire.

Not exactly, New England is Bernie territory.

New Hampshire was always very hospitable to the Clintons. It's also more blue collar and conservative than Iowa.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2015, 03:37:48 am »

So, Biden jumping in would hurt ... Hillary ?

I thought it would hurt Sanders, like you Hillary-fetishists told me ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2015, 03:45:03 am »

So, Biden jumping in would hurt ... Hillary ?

I thought it would hurt Sanders, like you Hillary-fetishists told me ?
No, it would hurt Sanders, according to this poll.

Hillary leads Sanders 50-31. Without Biden, it's 58-32.

No.

With Biden in the race, Sanders is within 19% of Hillary.

With Biden out, Sanders is behind by 26.

Biden would eat into the Hillary vote, not the Sanders vote.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2015, 03:47:41 am »

So, Biden jumping in would hurt ... Hillary ?

I thought it would hurt Sanders, like you Hillary-fetishists told me ?
No, it would hurt Sanders, according to this poll.

Hillary leads Sanders 50-31. Without Biden, it's 58-32.

No.

With Biden in the race, Sanders is within 19% of Hillary.

With Biden out, Sanders is behind by 26.

Biden would eat into the Hillary vote, not the Sanders vote.
Yes, you are right... sorry Tongue
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Smash255
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2015, 11:34:24 am »

urban:

Clinton 46%
Sanders 37%

rural:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 21%

I'd be interested in more polls that have rural/urban numbers. I remember that some of us (myself included) thought that Sanders would do well in Iowa because of the large rural population reminiscent of Vermont. Maybe it would play out in somewhere more rural like North Dakota?

Bernie is strongest in liberal areas  You have a large liberal voting block in the rural areas of New England.  You really don't have that in Iowa, as the more liberal areas tend to be Des Moines, Iowa City,etc and the rural sections more conservative.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2015, 03:13:23 pm »

It's pretty amazing that Iowa is proving to be a better state for Clinton than New Hampshire.

If I remember correctly, her staffing organization in Iowa is immense.  Pretty sure she's going to focus her attention on steamrolling the competition in Iowa to avoid any possible comparisons to 2008
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2015, 04:33:31 pm »

Sanders should be passing Hillary in the next poll in Iowa.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2015, 07:27:42 pm »

So, Biden jumping in would hurt ... Hillary ?

I thought it would hurt Sanders, like you Hillary-fetishists told me ?

No need to be snippy. I'm actually very surprised that Biden cannibalises Clinton more than Sanders, according to this poll.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2015, 02:45:08 pm »

Sanders should be passing Hillary in the next poll in Iowa.

Not the next poll, but maybe the next next next next poll.
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« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2015, 04:29:04 am »

urban:

Clinton 46%
Sanders 37%

rural:

Clinton 54%
Sanders 21%

I'd be interested in more polls that have rural/urban numbers. I remember that some of us (myself included) thought that Sanders would do well in Iowa because of the large rural population reminiscent of Vermont. Maybe it would play out in somewhere more rural like North Dakota?

Bernie is strongest in liberal areas  You have a large liberal voting block in the rural areas of New England.  You really don't have that in Iowa, as the more liberal areas tend to be Des Moines, Iowa City,etc and the rural sections more conservative.

Well, in most states the most liberal areas are the urban areas. NH is a little odd in that it doesn't follow that pattern.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2015, 10:13:19 am »
« Edited: August 27, 2015, 11:21:34 am by Dave Leip »

New Poll: Iowa President by CNN/ORC on 2015-08-11

Summary:
Clinton:
50%
Sanders:
31%
Biden:
12%
Other:
3%
Undecided:
4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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