NH-Boston Herald: It Happened
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Author Topic: NH-Boston Herald: It Happened  (Read 6638 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #50 on: August 12, 2015, 12:47:56 PM »

Sanders will probably make it SUPER Tues. But, he has to have a Southern strategy, he doesnt have one.

As Clinton continues to dominate.

Sanders has already been to the South a few times, drawing large crowds. Sanders has a 50-state strategy - he is going to compete (and win) everywhere.

Large crowds =/= electoral success. Obama drew huge crowds in Texas back in 2008 but he still lost the state to Hillary and McCain.

Obama lost the Texas primary very narrowly but won the caucuses and ended up with more delegates IIRC.

As for him losing to McCain, well yeah, he's a Democrat and it's Texas.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #51 on: August 12, 2015, 12:54:39 PM »

Sanders will probably make it SUPER Tues. But, he has to have a Southern strategy, he doesnt have one.

As Clinton continues to dominate.

Sanders has already been to the South a few times, drawing large crowds. Sanders has a 50-state strategy - he is going to compete (and win) everywhere.

Large crowds =/= electoral success. Obama drew huge crowds in Texas back in 2008 but he still lost the state to Hillary and McCain.

Obama lost the Texas primary very narrowly but won the caucuses and ended up with more delegates IIRC.

As for him losing to McCain, well yeah, he's a Democrat and it's Texas.

And Obama's GE showing was 11 points better than Kerry.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #52 on: August 12, 2015, 01:04:20 PM »

Maybe this could trigger Biden to enter the race.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #53 on: August 12, 2015, 02:06:57 PM »

This is a university poll, from a uni that hasn't polled since '08, whose polling institute is led by the guy who used to run UNH, and whose President is currently Andrew Card. Junk uni, junk poll.

It's possible this is a junk poll, I honestly don't know enough about who conducted it. Even if that's the case though, it still breaks a psychological barrier in many NH voters' minds. As a result of this, Sanders will now be leading in a lot of polls, both junk and non-junk.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #54 on: August 12, 2015, 02:16:33 PM »

It was bound to happen. Maybe this poll is junk or maybe not but Bernie leading in NH at some point was inevitable based on the trajectory and his favorables and being from neighboring state. And maybe he will even win NH. That is why team Hillary needs to win IA so any Bernmentum in NH can be quelled. They cant afford to let him go 2 for 2. While she would still win, it would drag things out into March or April.
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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #55 on: August 12, 2015, 02:33:48 PM »

God DAMMIT
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #56 on: August 12, 2015, 02:59:09 PM »

Sanders will probably make it SUPER Tues. But, he has to have a Southern strategy, he doesnt have one.

As Clinton continues to dominate.

Sanders has already been to the South a few times, drawing large crowds. Sanders has a 50-state strategy - he is going to compete (and win) everywhere.

Large crowds =/= electoral success. Obama drew huge crowds in Texas back in 2008 but he still lost the state to Hillary and McCain.

Obama lost the Texas primary very narrowly but won the caucuses and ended up with more delegates IIRC.

As for him losing to McCain, well yeah, he's a Democrat and it's Texas.

CrabCake put it better than I ever could.
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Badger
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« Reply #57 on: August 12, 2015, 04:48:52 PM »

This is a university poll, from a uni that hasn't polled since '08, whose polling institute is led by the guy who used to run UNH, and whose President is currently Andrew Card. Junk uni, junk poll.

yeah, this poll isn't trustworthy.

but it is still indicative of a trend HRC should be sweating over.....
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #58 on: August 12, 2015, 04:50:41 PM »

This is a university poll, from a uni that hasn't polled since '08, whose polling institute is led by the guy who used to run UNH, and whose President is currently Andrew Card. Junk uni, junk poll.

yeah, this poll isn't trustworthy.

but it is still indicative of a trend HRC should be sweating over.....

If she wins Iowa then even a loss by Sanders will be just a speed bump. He has limited appeal at South Carolina and Nevada.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #59 on: August 12, 2015, 05:10:22 PM »

This is a university poll, from a uni that hasn't polled since '08, whose polling institute is led by the guy who used to run UNH, and whose President is currently Andrew Card. Junk uni, junk poll.

yeah, this poll isn't trustworthy.

but it is still indicative of a trend HRC should be sweating over.....

If she wins Iowa then even a loss by Sanders will be just a speed bump. He has limited appeal at South Carolina and Nevada.

Nevada could be close if some of the big LV unions support Sanders. In Nevada politics, that's a very big if. I'd say that he should definitely target NV over SC unless he begins to make major inroads with black voters.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #60 on: August 12, 2015, 05:37:41 PM »

For a poll analysis forum WE sure are a short sighted group.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #61 on: August 12, 2015, 06:20:22 PM »

South Carolina is indeed Clinton's saving grace. Sanders has virtually no chance there.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #62 on: August 12, 2015, 07:31:13 PM »

What do you expect? She has a run a horrific campaign. Still don't see Sanders making it.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #63 on: August 13, 2015, 03:23:35 AM »

WaPo has a bunch of graphs comparing this result to the same pollster's results from their March poll, back when they were including Warren:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/12/a-few-asterisks-on-that-bernie-sanders-lead-in-new-hampshire-poll/



Favorable (and "very favorable") numbers from March compared to now:



Clinton vs. Sanders by age:


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Eraserhead
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« Reply #64 on: August 13, 2015, 07:55:46 AM »

So it's only people who are actually in the Clinton/Sanders age bracket that are supporting Clinton.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #65 on: August 13, 2015, 08:05:12 AM »

So it's only people who are actually in the Clinton/Sanders age bracket that are supporting Clinton.

Yep.  Clarence is part of her core demographic (except for the part about him being a white male).
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Ljube
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« Reply #66 on: August 13, 2015, 11:51:07 PM »

Go Sanders!!!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #67 on: August 15, 2015, 01:43:55 PM »

The fact she lost a 30 point lead to a 70 year old self avowed socialist from Vermont shows what a weak candidate she is. A strong candidate would be able to dispatch Sanders easily.

You realize that if Hillary dropped out and Gillibrand replaced her, she'd trail Sanders in every state besides New York, right? Biden, Gore, Kerry, Magical Fairy Candidate, etc. would also trail Sanders in the vast majority of states. Whereas Hillary leads in nearly every state. Sanders' surge has nothing to do with Hillary (check the favorability numbers among Democrats for proof.) It has to do with the fact that a) NH is Sanders' own backyard, and filled with the exact type of voters he does best with, and b) the Democratic Party has moved to the left with a rapid pace that nearly nobody anticipated. People like what he's saying. If people wanted a non socialist alternative to Hillary, O'Malley or someone else would be surging.

I liked all the shoutouts in this thread. That said, this doesn't "prove anything to me." I never definitively stated that Hillary was going to sweep all 49 states, although I probably predicted it (and it's still very possible, considering this is a single poll.) All I said for certain was that Hillary was the inevitable nominee. She still is. Sanders has no chance at winning the nomination unless he can make inroads among minorities. Last time I checked, he's struggling to break double digits in South Carolina. A crushing defeat there can easily destroy whatever momentum he gets from a potential win in NH. Super Tuesday is also nearly all Hillary country. I will admit Sanders has far exceeded my (and nearly everyone's) expectations. Even the most optimistic Sanders hacks probably wouldn't have expected him to be doing this well a few months ago.

And to the certain people acting as if Sanders is this unstoppable titan now...please learn some context.

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #68 on: August 15, 2015, 07:43:27 PM »

You know it was just about this time 16 years ago that liberal alternative Bill Bradley first lead in a NH poll vs. the big frontrunner establishment choice (Al Gore).  In the end Bradley came very close to carrying NH and did well in a few northeast states, but ended up losing every state because he couldn't expand beyond his strength with liberal white men.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #69 on: August 15, 2015, 07:49:57 PM »

You know it was just about this time 16 years ago that liberal alternative Bill Bradley first lead in a NH poll vs. the big frontrunner establishment choice (Al Gore).  In the end Bradley came very close to carrying NH and did well in a few northeast states, but ended up losing every state because he couldn't expand beyond his strength with liberal white men.

Yep.  The parallels are eerie.

Though another part of the story is that, once Gore fell behind Bradley in the New Hampshire polls, he retooled his campaign, pushed for more debates, and went negative on Bradley.

We'll see whether HRC follows that script as well.  Wink
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #70 on: August 27, 2015, 11:17:06 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Franklin Pierce on 2015-08-10

Summary:
Sanders:
44%
Clinton:
37%
Biden:
9%
Other:
4%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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