MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Zaybay]

Lol...Hawley got snubbed

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1037725808138313729

whoa, thats like, Trump's best demographic

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lol...Hawley got snubbed

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1037725808138313729

whoa, thats like, Trump's best demographic

That's an ironic development. It probably won't matter too much though. Endorsements (except Trump's) don't really matter to his base/most most Missourians. Trump, in campaigning for Hawley, will probably allege that this endorsement was an accident or something. Or, he'll completely turn on the Council. Both would be amusing.

[libertpaulian]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

55 to 43 Hawley would be my guess.

I don't see how Wagner and McCaskill both lose in your mind, especially if the national environment is as toxic for the GOP on Election night as it is now.

[junior chįmp]

Poll of MO State Senate district 30



Also....MO HD distrcits 131 to 136




Link

[ON Progressive]

Poll of MO State Senate district 30



Also....MO HD distrcits 131 to 136




Link

To compare to 2012:
SD-30: 53-39.5 McCaskill

HD-131: 47.1-45.4 Akin
HD-132: 62.6-29.1 McCaskill
HD-133: 46.6-46 McCaskill
HD-134: 51.1-41.5 McCaskill
HD-135: 56.6-36.1 McCaskill
HD-136: 48.1-45.4 Akin

A bit strange that McCaskill is leading in both of the Akin districts, but behind in HD-132 (where she blew out Akin).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Poll of MO State Senate district 30



Also....MO HD distrcits 131 to 136




Link

To compare to 2012:
SD-30: 53-39.5 McCaskill

HD-131: 47.1-45.4 Akin
HD-132: 62.6-29.1 McCaskill
HD-133: 46.6-46 McCaskill
HD-134: 51.1-41.5 McCaskill
HD-135: 56.6-36.1 McCaskill
HD-136: 48.1-45.4 Akin

A bit strange that McCaskill is leading in both of the Akin districts, but behind in HD-132 (where she blew out Akin).

I have no idea what to extrapolate from this besides McCaskill is clearly doing worse than 2012 which is expected. Question is if the drops are small enough for her to eek out.

[Pollster]

McCaskill out with a strong, personal ad on healthcare

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm now back to giving Hawley the narrow edge.

[Dr. Arch]

McCaskill out with a strong, personal ad on healthcare

This is a fantastic ad.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

McCaskill out with a strong, personal ad on healthcare

This is a fantastic ad.

It's not bad by any means, but it's not like it's the greatest ad ever. I feel like it might be better to have some poor rural WWC mom talking about her child with a pre-existing condition instead. Part of the goal is probably to make McCaskill seem more relatable and genuine, though, and in that respect it does a good job.

Also lol at "I don't talk about it much, but..." and then putting it in a television commercial. Now you are talking about it much.

[JG]

I'm now back to giving Hawley the narrow edge.

Because of one republican internal?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm now back to giving Hawley the narrow edge.

Because of one republican internal?

No, because McCaskill is tied and even when ahead she is no where near 50. I believe the undecideds will break for Hawley, and pull him to win like 49.25-49.

[MarkD]

McCaskill out with a strong, personal ad on healthcare

Meh. That's not good enough to change my mind; I'm still likely going to vote for Libertarian Japheth Campbell.

[MycroftCZ]

https://youtu.be/_ItGyDKilgQ

BARF

Why is this ad even relevant in Missouri? Even Tom Pryor’s Bible ad was better than this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

She is a no on Kavanaugh. Bye Claire, nice having you around for a while, you had a good run, tossup—-> Lean R.

[TarHeelDem]

Folks will respect her for honoring her personal convictions. Toss-Up => Lean D.

[TheSaint250]

This changes nothing. Tossup --> Tossup

[Progressive Pessimist]

This changes nothing. Tossup --> Tossup

[JG]

Anyone who cares enough about Kavanaugh's nomination process had already made up their mind anyway.

[Zaybay]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

[Peanut]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

[jamestroll]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

She has a reason to vote No now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

I said Lean R and you know it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Likely D