MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[SCNCmod]

Poll Internal out, Hawley up by seven now.

Fixed.

What's the deal with this?  ... is there really a new poll- or is this what Hawley campaign is saying about their internals?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Poll Internal out, Hawley up by seven now.

Fixed.

What's the deal with this?  ... is there really a new poll- or is this what Hawley campaign is saying about their internals?

I assume it's this poll.

[Breton Racer]

To have been a top recruit Hawley has run a pretty sh**t campaign. I see McCaskill doing one more magic trick and pulling this one out narrowly. The fact that Republicans haven't put this race away either shows how dire this year for Republicans or confirms my suspicion that Claire McCaskill is the best politician in American history.

[libertpaulian]

To have been a top recruit Hawley has run a pretty sh**t campaign. I see McCaskill doing one more magic trick and pulling this one out narrowly. The fact that Republicans haven't put this race away either shows how dire this year for Republicans or confirms my suspicion that Claire McCaskill is the best politician in American history.

If she's the best politician, how come she hasn't led a poll since the end of the summer?  Mind you, the state has trended FAR to the right, at least in a partisan sense, since Obama took the oath of office.

[SCNCmod]

Poll Internal out, Hawley up by seven now.

Fixed.

What's the deal with this?  ... is there really a new poll- or is this what Hawley campaign is saying about their internals?

I assume it's this poll.

That read to me (at least potentially) like... maybe Hawley did get a jump during kavanaugh-but they see that lead receding... and now they are a bit worried so trying to make him have sort of an air of inevitability.  Otherwise- if he really was in such a strong (almost undefeatable sounding) position- there would be no reason to put this info out.

[SCNCmod]

Sounds like if McCaskill could find a way to effectively convey (& convince) voters that Hawley is absolutely not being honest about protecting Pre-existing condition- where as she has fought and will continue to fight to protect PE Conditions... this could potentially make up a couple of points

(not only b/c Voters rank this as such an important issue-  but always b/c it would make Hawley seem sort of fake or like he will say anything)... that is if she could find a way to really drive the point home (that he is playing roulette with this issue by sueing etc)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sounds like if McCaskill could find a way to effectively convey (& convince) voters that Hawley is absolutely not being honest about protecting Pre-existing condition- where as she has fought and will continue to fight to protect PE Conditions... this could potentially make up a couple of points

(not only b/c Voters rank this as such an important issue-  but always b/c it would make Hawley seem sort of fake or like he will say anything)... that is if she could find a way to really drive the point home (that he is playing roulette with this issue by sueing etc)

I sure as hell hope she's already running attack ads on that, and has been throughout the campaign.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I wonder if Claire is gonna start watching Game of Thrones again to pass the time when she loses. Although Season 8 is probably gonna suck massively. I feel sorry for her.

[SCNCmod]

Pretty decent story regarding the MO campaign...
"Does McCaskill Have 1 More Trick Up Her Sleeve"
https://www.stripes.com/opinion/mccaskill-might-have-1-last-magic-trick-1.553299

[Lincoln Republican]

McCaskill is goin' down, obviously.

When she starts running ads that refer to her as

Not one of those crazy Democrats

you know she's in trouble, big trouble

[Pandaguineapig]

McCaskill is goin' down, obviously.

When she starts running ads that refer to her as

Not one of those crazy Democrats

you know she's in trouble, big trouble

Yeah that's not the type of ad you play when you're ahead, her internals also probably show her down if she's pulling stunts like that

[SCNCmod]

McCaskill is goin' down, obviously.

When she starts running ads that refer to her as

Not one of those crazy Democrats

you know she's in trouble, big trouble

Yeah that's not the type of ad you play when you're ahead, her internals also probably show her down if she's pulling stunts like that

I hope Dems in MO a smart enough to give McCaskill leeway to during a tight campaign.  The alternative is to make is easier for Hawley to win... and Hawley certainly wouldn't have voted against Kavanaugh ... and would have certainly voted to end Obamacare (which, without McCaskill's vote, would have gone through). 

[Pandaguineapig]

Pretty decent story regarding the MO campaign...
"Does McCaskill Have 1 More Trick Up Her Sleeve"
https://www.stripes.com/opinion/mccaskill-might-have-1-last-magic-trick-1.553299

Eh, McCaskill has been framed as some sort of Harry Truman redux for the entire cycle but her campaign skills are probably overrated. She won in 2006 more as a result of the national environment as she underperformed her poll numbers, in 2012 she not only had the gift of her opponent being Todd Akin she also got a major assist from the national media in keeping that gaffe as front-page news until election day.

[MarkD]

McCaskill is facing some flack from her left flank.

She got 82.6% in the primary, with about 105,700 votes split among 6 minor opponents. If even half of those who voted against her end up refusing to vote for her in the GE, she is certainly in trouble.

[MycroftCZ]

https://youtu.be/iN3jeEsVL2o

WOW. Really strong closing ad from McCaskill. Really playing up the whole “I went to Mizzou, Hawley went to Yale” thing.

[Ebsy]

McCaskill is facing some flack from her left flank.

She got 82.6% in the primary, with about 105,700 votes split among 6 minor opponents. If even half of those who voted against her end up refusing to vote for her in the GE, she is certainly in trouble.

I am pretty deeply involved in progressive politics in this state and I don't know a single person not voting enthusiastically for McCaskill. Fake news.

[Pollster]

Looks like a solid oppo drop hit yesterday

[Arkansas Yankee]

I believe George Will has given Never Trumpers permission to vote foe Hawley.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/josh-hawley-missouri-senate-candidate-true-conservative/

[ON Progressive]

I believe George Will has given Never Trumpers permission to vote foe Hawley.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/josh-hawley-missouri-senate-candidate-true-conservative/

Never Trumpers are like 0.1% of the GOP at this point and 0.01% of the voting population, so who cares?

[Ebsy]

There is not a single person in Missouri who reads NRO and was not already voting for Hawley.

Then again, only a very select few freaks read NRO.

[SCNCmod]

For whatever reason (not a Hawley fan, I respect McCaskill for being a tough politico, want to see her pull out an upset again, Know she is much better for the state, etc)... this is the one Senate race I most want to see go Dem.  (Texas and TN are close 2nd).

[SCNCmod]

Looking at the latest poll for FOX- the numbers aren't that bad for McCaskill.  She obviously really needs high turnout in St. Louis.

It was interesting when looking at likelihood to vote:
(49%) Extremely likely............McCaskill +2
(28%) Very Likely..............Hawley +4
(20%) Somewhat Likely.........McCaskill +1

***In September, the leader in each of the categories was reversed

In addition to St. Louis turnout, McCaskill really needs the "Somewhat Likely" to turn out.

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballot returns in St. Louis City and St. Louis County are up significantly from 2014.

[Gass3268]

Absentee ballot returns in St. Louis City and St. Louis County are up significantly from 2014.

Were there any statewide elections in 2014?

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballot returns in St. Louis City and St. Louis County are up significantly from 2014.

Were there any statewide elections in 2014?

Just for state auditor (Dems did not field a candidate against Schweich) and some ballot initiatives, including "Right to Farm". Nothing big to drive turnout.