MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[junior chįmp]

I seem to recall Arkansans voting bigly for Cotton while hiking the minimum wage 3 years ago.

This is a different time. Candidates like Hawely are being rejected by GOP voters because of 'muh Establishment that let down Trump'

[KingSweden]

I just read on twitter that a referendum to overturn right to work was put on the ballot along with the Senate race. I don't think McCaskill had a turnout problem before, but now she certainly doesn't.

It can’t hurt, at least

[Ebsy]

No one actually cares about "air claire".

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Her travel scandal is nothing compared to the ones brewing in the Trumo administration. It's an easy deflection during a debate.

[LimoLiberal]

IMO, the fact that she has a private plan is a far bigger deal than her blocking it from being seen or whatever.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Her travel scandal is nothing compared to the ones brewing in the Trumo administration. It's an easy deflection during a debate.

Who knew Trump used to be a sumo wrestler?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is not a real scandal, sorry. McCaskill will likely lose because Missouri, over the last 25 years, has changed from a swing state to a state that is demographically unwinnable for almost any democrat regardless of the political climate. This stupid plane doesn't have anything to do with it.

[jamestroll]

Mccaskill won't go below 45%. Not in 2018.

[mcmikk]

Mccaskill won't go below 45%. Not in 2018.

Agreed. Honestly I can see her scraping by by the skin of her teeth, saved by the national environment, Right-to-Work ballot initiative, and a shrewdly-run campaign.

[windjammer]

I mean lol, Mccaskill isn't really the underdog anymore. Trump is at best 50/50 in MO, and so with the higher turnout rates for the democrats, she should be fine in the end.

[YPestis25]

FWIW, the Democratic nominee for the HD-144 special election is Jim Scaggs, the Iron County Presiding Commissioner (aka-county executive). He won his 2014 race by a 63-37 margin, so I'd say an upset here is possible. His opponent is a known name in statewide Republican circles and big Greitens cheerleader. Dunno if that will necessarily be an asset though in this union-heavy district.

Yeah, I agree that an upset here is certainly possible. If I'm not mistaken the Republican candidate is Paul Fitzwater's former Chief of Staff, who was the former state representative out there. 

I also wonder if a Democratic victory would serve as a harbinger to a Missouri-centric backlash to Republicans driven by Right-to-Work and the governor's less than stellar record so far. 

[jamestroll]

The next statewide Democrat to win in Missouri would have to carry Platte and Clay Counties by very healthy margins. Plus Greene County would have to be within single digits.
 
I actually think a lot of the voters that got Iron and Washington Counties as Democratic and St Francois county as close in 2008 are quite frankly dead. But as recently as 2012 Kander won Iron County in a very narrow statewide victory and lost Platte County iirc. . Fast forward four years he loses Iron County in a landslide but wins Platte County in a narrow statewide loss. Times have changed.

Largely political circles have underrated McCaskill and especially on Atlas I think being a female has a lot to do with it. We had polls showing Brown in Ohio down by similar margins as McCaskill yet no one has declared him DOA.

[Rjjr77]

The next statewide Democrat to win in Missouri would have to carry Platte and Clay Counties by very healthy margins. Plus Greene County would have to be within single digits.
 
I actually think a lot of the voters that got Iron and Washington Counties as Democratic and St Francois county as close in 2008 are quite frankly dead. But as recently as 2012 Kander won Iron County in a very narrow statewide victory and lost Platte County iirc. . Fast forward four years he loses Iron County in a landslide but wins Platte County in a narrow statewide loss. Times have changed.

Largely political circles have underrated McCaskill and especially on Atlas I think being a female has a lot to do with it. We had polls showing Brown in Ohio down by similar margins as McCaskill yet no one has declared him DOA.

McCaskill and Brown cant be compared. Both are too far left for their state, but Missouri is further right than Ohio is, Brown is still relatively liked, McCaskill isnt.

[Bidenworth2020]

I plan on doing more analysis on this, but as of now, I think McCaskill would at least be able to do as well as Susan Montee did statewide in the 2010 bloodbath as an incumbent.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=29&year=2010&f=0&off=11

McCaskill has traditionally done better in rural areas in her Senate races than one would think given the caricature of her. The upcoming special election in the lead/iron belt just east of Rolla will show us if a Missouri Democrat can still do respectably in the kinds of places McCaskill will need to have big swings in relative to the Trump-Hillary numbers to win again.

Aslo, if I'm using the 2010 Auditor's race as a guide, I'd expect McCaskill to outperform Montee considerably in metro KC and in St. Louis County, St. Charles County, and Boone County. Perhaps even keeping Greene County within single digits.

why this race?
mccaskill will obviously do worse in rural reas than montee and much better in Burbs.

[The Other Castro]

"McCaskill raises $2.9 million in last quarter of 2017, record $11.8 million for year"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-raises-million-in-last-quarter-of-record-million-for/article_fb163bc4-6e52-518d-a97a-842afd41db95.html

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

So I took the recent poll apart by Demographics, and put it back together with what the likely actual Demographics will be, and Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% under the most conservative estimations possible.

[Oryxslayer]

So I took the recent poll apart by Demographics, and put it back together with what the likely actual Demographics will be, and Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% under the most conservative estimations possible.

Wow it's only January and people are already seeking to 'unbias' the polls.

[IceSpear]

So I took the recent poll apart by Demographics, and put it back together with what the likely actual Demographics will be, and Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% under the most conservative estimations possible.

Wow it's only January and people are already seeking to 'unbias' the polls.

It's called unskewing.

[jamestroll]

Uh is anyone else a bit sad that this is the state that went from being the closest state in the country in 2008 and electing democrats statewide by sometimes landslide margins as recently as 2012 to becoming a state that could oust the last two state democratic office holders state wide next year?  In a democratic wave year.

Despite popular belief... It would have been better if Wagner ran for the Senate. Her district would have been viable if open

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Uh is anyone else a bit sad that this is the state that went from being the closest state in the country in 2008 and electing democrats statewide by sometimes landslide margins as recently as 2012 to becoming a state that could oust the last two state democratic office holders state wide next year?  In a democratic wave year.

Despite popular belief... It would have been better if Wagner ran for the Senate. Her district would have been viable if open

Wagner would have defeated McCaskill in a landslide.

[Young Conservative]

Uh is anyone else a bit sad that this is the state that went from being the closest state in the country in 2008 and electing democrats statewide by sometimes landslide margins as recently as 2012 to becoming a state that could oust the last two state democratic office holders state wide next year?  In a democratic wave year.

Despite popular belief... It would have been better if Wagner ran for the Senate. Her district would have been viable if open

Wagner would have defeated McCaskill in a landslide.

Lol. Wagner is the female Roy Blunt. Could she win? Definitely. Landslide? Lmao no

Agreed. She's uninspiring.

[jamestroll]

LMAO.. Wagner never faced a tough race and I think naturally the dem candidate this year will get in the 40s against Wagner.

But overall better if she ran for senate rather than for reelection to her house seat for democrats.

[LimoLiberal]

Hey Atlas.

Tester was down by about 3 points in an aggregate of polls taken in early to mid 2012. He won by four points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana,_2012#Polling

Ron Johnson was getting blanched in polls until basically the week of the election. He won by 3 points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2016#Polling

Menendez consistently traded leads with Kean in early 2006 before winning by nine points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2006

DON'T
COUNT
INCUMBENTS
OUT

[Holmes]

It would be stupid to count McCaskill out but some people here are stupid. She's touring the state, drumming up support in places where she will definitely lose but is thinning the margins, posting record fundraising numbers, loads of individual donations and will be on the ballot in a favorable environment.

[LimoLiberal]

Hey Atlas.

Tester was down by about 3 points in an aggregate of polls taken in early to mid 2012. He won by four points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana,_2012#Polling

Ron Johnson was getting blanched in polls until basically the week of the election. He won by 3 points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2016#Polling

Menendez consistently traded leads with Kean in early 2006 before winning by nine points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2006

DON'T
COUNT
INCUMBENTS
OUT

Don’t forget Nelson 2012 or McCaskill 2012

Nelson was really never losing (though Mack led in a couple of early polls), and McCaskill 2012 had some unique circumstances, so I wasn't sure if it was legitimate to add. But her fifteen-point margin was certainly unexpected.