MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

[Zaybay]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

[Zaybay]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

heh, yeah.

Im starting to see the only possible seats that will flip from our column being IN, and ND, and those states have no polling so I could be incredibly wrong about that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

heh, yeah.

Im starting to see the only possible seats that will flip from our column being IN, and ND, and those states have no polling so I could be incredibly wrong about that.

I think I migt change my Cramer by 8 prediction because it is starting to sound a bit ridiculous, I'm thinking 3-4 points for Cramer now, but I have no idea about IN. I've heard they have had really draconian polling laws or something like that which is why we really don't have enough data to accurately characterize this race. Rn I would say Braun by a point, but I really think we need more info to really characterize this race well, and also the factor of how involved will Pence get in this race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

However, I don't think McCaskill carries that main county with Springfield in it again, Greene I believe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When it's all said and done, I think McCaskill wins 50-48.

[Zaybay]

Remington GOP Internals:

Early July 2017
Hawley 50-44

Mid August 2017
Hawley 50-45

Mid October 2017
Hawley 48-45

Early January 2018
Hawley 49-45

Early July 2018
Hawley 48-46

Early August 2018
47-47 tie

these are Republican internals, keep that in mind...

pattern?

But muh MO +20 Trump

But muh Claire didnt vote for Gorsch

But muh excellent candidate Hawley

On a more serious note, Hawley really is blowing this race. Not only is his own internals going against him, but based on the primary, which was 53R-47D overall, it seems that Claire will have an easier time than thought.

This race is starting to lose its tossup nature, but IN.....

Bruh, even I think we hold this seat lol and I'm the Balderson by 6 and Moore by 8 guy lol.

heh, yeah.

Im starting to see the only possible seats that will flip from our column being IN, and ND, and those states have no polling so I could be incredibly wrong about that.

I think I migt change my Cramer by 8 prediction because it is starting to sound a bit ridiculous, I'm thinking 3-4 points for Cramer now, but I have no idea about IN. I've heard they have had really draconian polling laws or something like that which is why we really don't have enough data to accurately characterize this race. Rn I would say Braun by a point, but I really think we need more info to really characterize this race well, and also the factor of how involved will Pence get in this race.

Both states are terrible with polling. In ND, registration doesnt exist, and so poll samples are always off. This is the reason Heidi was trianged in 2012, because polling showed her consistently 6 points down, and, well, you know what happened.

In IN, calling is not allowed, so polls are terribley expensive to do, so the only polls we get out of there are Gravis, which is not the best in terms of quality.

For all I know, we could be leading in both states and sitting on a senate majority, but I dont know, because the polling sucks.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Hawley win Republican stronghold Johnson County (which McCaskill won in 2012), which Tony Monetti won in the primary?

[here2view]

This race is getting NASTY. Hawley just posted on his Insta story a video of the McCaskill campaign bus driving past his stupid "Let's Debate" trailer. Hawley yells, "Where you going Claire?" with the caption, "Plane to catch?".

That's good finally some energy from low energy Josh

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Does Hawley win Republican stronghold Johnson County (which McCaskill won in 2012), which Tony Monetti won in the primary?

Probably narrowly.

[Lognog]

Well, when you're the 2nd most endangered Senator in the country for your election cycle, you try literally everything - including all the things that worked last time.

Tester more safe?

You're saying that Tester is less safe than Nelson??
Yes. He's 4th most vulnerable. Donnelly is 1st and Heitkamp is 3rd.

[jamestroll]

Even more hilarious is that Saundra McDowell won the primary despite being outspent 200-1 by David Wasinger.

Cash on hand balances for the Auditor nominees as of August 7th:

Nicole Galloway (D)*—-$1.081 million
Saundra McDowell (R)—-$3,000

LOL
There hasn’t been a contested auditor’s race this lopsided (financially, at least) since Claire McCaskill beat a convicted felon in 2002 with over 60% of the vote. Not suggesting that Galloway will win anywhere near that big of a blowout, to be clear; her best case scenario is probably an upper single digits win. And hell, she still might lose anyway to an unqualified opponent because of the D after her name.

She probably won due to being the only female in the race.. and the gop may have ed themselves by holding right to work vote in August because it denied attention to auditor candidates. Wasinger and Curtman would have presented formidable challenges to Galloway.

A poll had McDowell up 47 to 42 over Galloway but that is likely noise and generic r vs generic d at this point. Galloway is about to run ads and I just received an email from her and donated 5.00 bucks. Once the campaign starts she will likely lead.

[Arkansas Yankee]

So a GOP female candidate for auditor in Missouri with a history of financial difficulties is not qualified.
But a Democrat female candidate for Governor of Georgia with a history of financial difficulties is qualified.
Is there any double standard here.

[Yellowhammer]

So a GOP female candidate for auditor in Missouri with a history of financial difficulties is not qualified.
But a Democrat female candidate for Governor of Georgia with a history of financial difficulties is qualified.
Is there any double standard here.

Isn’t Saundra McDowell unqualified because she hasn’t been a resident of Missouri for 10 years, as required by the state constitution? That’s what I thought I read, I may be wrong.

[jamestroll]

The position is AUDITOR.. the optics are even worse for that position.

But please please please do not remove her from the ballot!

[Greedo punched first]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

[ON Progressive]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

Yes, and it won't be close. Even Akin only lost it 49-41 while he was getting absolutely smoked in a way Hawley will not. It also shifted from Romney +24 to Trump +36.

[MT Treasurer]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

[Greedo punched first]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

It's largely a GOP county, but McCaskill won in in 2012. Akin even lost it in the primary.

[MT Treasurer]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

It's largely a GOP county, but McCaskill won in in 2012. Akin even lost it in the primary.

It voted 64-28 Trump, 57-39 Greitens and 55-39 Blunt. And yeah, she won it in 2012, but call me crazy for believing that Hawley might manage to do 8 points better than Akin in a county that has trended strongly R since then.

[Pandaguineapig]

So a GOP female candidate for auditor in Missouri with a history of financial difficulties is not qualified.
But a Democrat female candidate for Governor of Georgia with a history of financial difficulties is qualified.
Is there any double standard here.

It's ok when democrats do it, just like with domestic abuse and tax evasion

[ON Progressive]

So a GOP female candidate for auditor in Missouri with a history of financial difficulties is not qualified.
But a Democrat female candidate for Governor of Georgia with a history of financial difficulties is qualified.
Is there any double standard here.

It's ok when democrats do it, just like with domestic abuse and tax evasion

I don’t know what you’re b!tching about now, but you must think the Donald is still a Democrat or something the way you speak

It's best to ignore anything Pandaguineapig says. As Ascott put it a while back, Pandaguineapig is the Atlas equivalent to a right wing twitter egg.

[jamestroll]

Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

55 to 43 Hawley would be my guess.

[junior chįmp]

Lol...Hawley got snubbed

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1037725808138313729