MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[KingSweden]

I don't believe that McCaskill is as vulnerable as people think. 

Why is that?

[The Other Castro]

Ooof, McCaskill busted for misleading about her role in the Marino DEA bill, earning 4 Pinocchios.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/17/mccaskills-false-claim-that-she-wasnt-here-when-the-dea-bill-was-passed/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_fact-checker-220p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.19773c81c088

[Rjjr77]

I'm at least 90% sure that the Breitbart narrative of "conservatives coalescing around Hawley" is bunk. The man's a 37 year old Ivy League lawyer, not the type of grassroots or tough populist the Missouri GOP (which is increasingly radicalizing thanks to white suburbanites in St Louis county learning race tension exists) is looking for.

If Greitens was in his second term as governor he'd have McCaskill's seat on a diamond platter, I'm sure of that.

Its not bunk. the guy is just one of those republican unicorns who has something for every wing of the party.

[Ebsy]

Ooof, McCaskill busted for misleading about her role in the Marino DEA bill, earning 4 Pinocchios.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/17/mccaskills-false-claim-that-she-wasnt-here-when-the-dea-bill-was-passed/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_fact-checker-220p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.19773c81c088

Fake news.

[The Other Castro]

Ooof, McCaskill busted for misleading about her role in the Marino DEA bill, earning 4 Pinocchios.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/10/17/mccaskills-false-claim-that-she-wasnt-here-when-the-dea-bill-was-passed/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_fact-checker-220p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.19773c81c088

Fake news.

The article seems pretty harsh and kind of misleading, though people will mostly read the headline and not much else unfortunately.

[jamestroll]

Not much else needs to be said on this contest for now.

MO: Toss-Up -> Lean R
McCaskill is still the underdog, but this is definitely closer to Tilt R than Likely R. People on this forum are letting their personal feelings about McCaskill influence their predictions here, and there's a good chance that this won't serve them well. I could definitely see McCaskill surviving in a good year for Democrats.

pretty much sums it up

[Heisenberg]

Austin Petersen is pro catalan independence
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923948454824632321
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923949935854325761
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923950260019433472

Will this help or hurt him

I'd say neither, I honestly don't think many really care, and if they do, it's not that big an issue.

[_]

Austin Petersen is pro catalan independence
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923948454824632321
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923949935854325761
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923950260019433472

Will this help or hurt him

Average American:  Where the hell is Catalonia and why should I care?

Negligible effect

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Austin Petersen is pro catalan independence
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923948454824632321
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923949935854325761
https://twitter.com/AP4Liberty/status/923950260019433472

Will this help or hurt him

Average American:  Where the hell is Catalonia and why should I care?

Negligible effect

Yeah, when I first saw that I assumed Catalan was some sort of pharmaceutical drug or something...and I know where Catalonia is

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Because Bannon is not stupid. He realizes what happened in 2012 and that if someone other than Akin was the nominee, ACA repeal would have passed. All are also well aware of Claire's love to meddle in the GOP primary.


So that is why they are uniting behind Hawley and clearing the field.

Yes, Bannon's instincts are so good that he's running Kelli Ward and Tarkanian against GOP incumbents (not that Flake would do any better in a general than Sinema at this point anyways though) and is running vanity campaigns against all the other GOP Senators besides Cruz who would've been likelier to lose his primary than Barasso. Such stellar political instincts. I can't wait to see who he rallies behind to get rid of Susan Collins in 2020!

That is the why there is have a designation called "Crazy, not stupid!"

[Kamala]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

[IceSpear]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

Dems would likely have a better shot of holding the seat if she did retire, assuming Kander took her spot.

[Kamala]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

Dems would likely have a better shot of holding the seat if she did retire, assuming Kander took her spot.

That's what I was thinking, too. In response to their "handsome youngin' candidate," we bring out "handsome youngin' candidate." Except ours has a gun instead of a bottle of wine.

[Heisenberg]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

Dems would likely have a better shot of holding the seat if she did retire, assuming Kander took her spot.

That's what I was thinking, too. In response to their "handsome youngin' candidate," we bring out "handsome youngin' candidate." Except ours has a gun instead of a bottle of wine.

She also was diagnosed with breast cancer last year, but got it treated. I can certainly see Kander beating Hawley. If Petersen is somehow the nominee, Kander would mop the floor and win in a landslide.

[Cactus Jack]

McCaskill's husband is in the ICU for heart surgery per her twitter. I hope he gets better. If doesn't, I could see McCaskill retiring. Morbid, I know, but something to consider.

She might retire anyway, considering she's already had one medical curveball to deal with (see above). I don't think it's tremendously likely, since - and I say this with all the respect in the world for her - McCaskill is sort of the ultimate career politician, but I also wouldn't be surprised if this made her finally step out of politics.

If she does, our best candidate is obvious. Considering how close he came to unseating Blunt in the ultimate banner year for Missouri Republicans, Kander would probably beat anyone the MOGOP put up against him.

[UncleSam]

I think that Kander wouldn't do as well at this point, honestly. His national tours and promotional events would make for devastating attack ads for the Missouri GOP, whereas last year Kander looked way more middle-of-the-road and nonpartisan in his fantastic campaign against Blunt. I doubt he could replicate anything near his performance among Conservatives or leaners next year, however. McCaskill will rally a strong ~45% of the electorate around her and, if she can convince just a few right-leaners in rural areas that Hawley isn't as clean-cut as he sells himself, I could see her holding her seat. It's not a good shot either way, but Kander is not an upgrade and might be a significant downgrade at this point.

[IceSpear]

I think that Kander wouldn't do as well at this point, honestly. His national tours and promotional events would make for devastating attack ads for the Missouri GOP, whereas last year Kander looked way more middle-of-the-road and nonpartisan in his fantastic campaign against Blunt. I doubt he could replicate anything near his performance among Conservatives or leaners next year, however. McCaskill will rally a strong ~45% of the electorate around her and, if she can convince just a few right-leaners in rural areas that Hawley isn't as clean-cut as he sells himself, I could see her holding her seat. It's not a good shot either way, but Kander is not an upgrade and might be a significant downgrade at this point.

So they have 1 year of ammunition against Kander vs. 12 years of ammunition and voting record against McCaskill.

[Young Conservative]

Kander could no longer win. His high profile criticism of Trump and all Republicans will not be popular. Nationalization of races in Red and blue states hurts the opposite party of the state.

[IceSpear]

Kander could no longer win. His high profile criticism of Trump and all Republicans will not be popular. Nationalization of races in Red and blue states hurts the opposite party of the state.

McCaskill has not criticized Trump and Republicans?

[Young Conservative]

Kander could no longer win. His high profile criticism of Trump and all Republicans will not be popular. Nationalization of races in Red and blue states hurts the opposite party of the state.

McCaskill has not criticized Trump and Republicans?

I didn't say McCaskill could win.

[Kamala]

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/926162746143592449

McCaskill's husband is much better now.

[Pollster]

I've conducted a tracking poll of this race using GCS, but with my own methodology and analysis to fix the obvious problems GCS has. The first round was conducted in early October, the second round in late November. High margins of error for both but data nonetheless. Below is the link to the results. Enjoy!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1k7_LfBC31DB15sxE4vF-eYvuC79jLOhi/view?usp=sharing

[Brittain33]

I just read on twitter that a referendum to overturn right to work was put on the ballot along with the Senate race. I don't think McCaskill had a turnout problem before, but now she certainly doesn't.

[junior chįmp]

I just read on twitter that a referendum to overturn right to work was put on the ballot along with the Senate race. I don't think McCaskill had a turnout problem before, but now she certainly doesn't.

I made this point months ago. Another lifeline in what should of been a loss

[RogueBeaver]

I seem to recall Arkansans voting bigly for Cotton while hiking the minimum wage 3 years ago.