2018 is obviously not going to be a "Democratic wave year". The issue in 2010 or 2014 was not that people massively turned out against an unpopular Democratic administration, the issue was that Democrats simply didn't turn out at all and Republicans did. That's not likely to change in 2018. McCaskill is still in deep trouble, and so are Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly, etc...
David, there is really no way you can know that. Even when I rant about 2018, I'm only making educated guesses. Independents could completely turn on Republicans like 2006, Democrats could experience a surge in turnout while Republicans, upset by Trump, a man many didn't explicitly support for him so much as a vote against Clinton, stay home, and a fair number of Republicans could switch over. OR maybe none of that happens.
It is clear that Republicans,
for now, still have a structural midterm advantage in a number of ways, but that is by no means an ironclad insulator against backlash.
All I can say is, just keep an eye on the Generic Ballot question for 2018 and Trump's approval ratings. If you see Trump constantly floating around the low 40s (or lower) and a generic congressional ballot polls showing Democrats up by mid-high single digits or low double digits, Republicans could very well be in for big trouble in 2018. They might not lose the Senate but the House and many state legislatures/governorships would be at risk.
Or maybe, it's a wash. Who knows, but there are ways to see a backlash coming ahead of time. It's rarely a genuine surprise and in some cases can be seen long before election day.
1998 was a democratic year under a democratic president without a terrorist attack. 1990 was a neutral year.
And Bill had something in 98 that Bush had in 2002 - very high approval ratings. Bill also had favorable economic conditions. Unpopular presidents almost never have those kinds of favorable midterms.
Poll
