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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Close race with slight Republican edge  (Read 3330 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: August 19, 2015, 09:46:55 am »

Carson (R)........................... 47%
Clinton (D)........................... 40%

Rubio (R)............................. 45%
Clinton (D)........................... 41%

Clinton (D)........................... 44%
Paul (R)............................... 40%

Clinton (D).......................... 40%
Christie (R)......................... 39%

Clinton (D).......................... 42%
Bush (R)............................. 42%

Fiorina (R).......................... 42%
Clinton (D)......................... 41%

Kasich (R)........................... 41%
Clinton (D)......................... 40%

Cruz (R)............................. 45%
Clinton (D)......................... 43%

Huckabee (R)..................... 46%
Clinton (D)......................... 44%

Trump (R)........................... 45%
Clinton (D)......................... 42%

Walker (R)......................... 44%
Clinton (D)......................... 41%
-----
Sanders (D).........................36%
Rubio (R)..............................42%

Sanders (D)........................ 37%
Walker (R)........................... 41%

Sanders (D)........................ 40%
Bush (R)............................. 43%

Sanders (D)........................ 40%
Trump (R)............................43%
----
Clinton (D)......................... 38%
Bush (R)............................ 28%
Trump (I)............................27%

Trump (R).......................... 40%
Clinton (D)........................ 38%
DeezNuts (I)..................... 9% (!!)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html
« Last Edit: August 19, 2015, 10:10:21 am by TNvolunteer »Logged
yeah_93
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2015, 09:57:03 am »

That Trump is able to lead Clinton here is a bit worriesome.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2015, 09:57:58 am »

A self-described socialist is losing North Carolina by as little as 3%. Now I've seen everything.

Let this sink in for a moment.

A self-described socialist is losing NORTH CAROLINA by only 3%.
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2015, 09:58:13 am »

At this point, Rubio is the only candidate I'm seriously worried about.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2015, 10:01:14 am »

We now have one splintered Party against another.

If North Carolina is close in a binary matchup in 2016, then the Democrat wins nationally.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2015, 10:02:24 am »

Carson got those elect-ability skills I see. And Paul went from best polling Republican to worst polling Republican. What the hell happened?

The three way race is something that's a bit weird. A good chunk of Trump's supporters come from disaffected independents, not Republicans. So it splits Republicans but it also splits independents.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2015, 10:17:35 am »

Trump/Bush/Walker on average leading Clinton by 2% in North Carolina now, according to poll. (Sadly that is still the top 3 nationally according to RCP).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2015, 10:26:27 am »

Carson got those elect-ability skills I see. And Paul went from best polling Republican to worst polling Republican. What the hell happened?

The three way race is something that's a bit weird. A good chunk of Trump's supporters come from disaffected independents, not Republicans. So it splits Republicans but it also splits independents.

The Republican Party has typically won the plurality of the disaffected vote. Donald Trump could appeal to those who think that we are better off with a businessman as President than with a 'mere' politician.

It's hard to imagine any Democratic nominee losing more potential votes to Donald Trump than the Republican nominee does.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2015, 10:36:58 am »


It's hard to imagine any Democratic nominee losing more potential votes to Donald Trump than the Republican nominee does.

Yeah, but it's not hard to imagine the ratio Trump takes being something like 3 R votes to every 1 D vote or even 2 R votes to every 1 D vote rather than nearly unanimously Republican voters like some people here think. If Trump's support in a three way comes 75% out of Jeb and 25% out of Clinton those numbers make a lot of sense.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2015, 12:21:04 pm »

Averaging all candidates, the Republican leads Clinton by 1.6%. In 2012, Romney won by 2 points.
Not great news for Republicans.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2015, 02:07:51 pm »

Averaging all candidates, the Republican leads Clinton by 1.6%. In 2012, Romney won by 2 points.
Not great news for Republicans.

Someone entered the poll incorrectly into the database: Walker is no longer in the top-3.

According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson.

If we use these 3 against Hillary, the Republicans are ahead 45-41 in this poll.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2015, 02:39:07 pm »

She isnt gonna win NC, it is always close, but it will go GOP.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2015, 04:52:16 pm »

Democratic GOTV operations will make NC a nailbiter just like it was in 2012.
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King
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2015, 06:33:19 pm »

We need to do some sort of scientific brain study to find out what the hell voters see in Ben Carson.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2015, 06:44:39 pm »

We need to do some sort of scientific brain study to find out what the hell voters see in Ben Carson.
Yeah, I'm as puzzled as you are.  I have to believe that if he'd start to wither once his opponents start attacking him seriously.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2015, 06:45:57 pm »

We need to do some sort of scientific brain study to find out what the hell voters see in Ben Carson.

Once you go black, you don't go back.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2015, 06:53:40 pm »

We need to do some sort of scientific brain study to find out what the hell voters see in Ben Carson.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2015, 08:29:12 pm »

But but, muh sanders inelectability.

Also RIP in peace at the "Bush is the most electable Republican" argument.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2015, 08:58:02 pm »

Democratic GOTV operations will make NC a nailbiter just like it was in 2012.

NC is foolsgold for Dems, the Dems certainly dont need it, and will go narrowly to R's.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2015, 09:19:11 pm »

Carson gets 17% of the black vote against Clinton, higher than any other Republican in the Clinton-Republican matchups.  But he also has a bigger margin against Clinton among whites than any other Republican candidate.  They really love him in NC.

Trump gets 14% of the black vote in his matchups against Clinton.  Yet that grows to 16% in the 3-way Bush-Clinton-Trump matchup.  Which seems odd, but I guess some people won't vote for him if he has an "R" next to his name, but would vote for him as an Indy.

Deez Nuts's strongest demographic groups are blacks (17% in the 3-way matchup) and voters age 30-45 (15% in the 3-way matchup).
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yeah_93
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2015, 11:09:49 pm »

Carson gets 17% of the black vote against Clinton, higher than any other Republican in the Clinton-Republican matchups.  But he also has a bigger margin against Clinton among whites than any other Republican candidate.  They really love him in NC.

Trump gets 14% of the black vote in his matchups against Clinton.  Yet that grows to 16% in the 3-way Bush-Clinton-Trump matchup.  Which seems odd, but I guess some people won't vote for him if he has an "R" next to his name, but would vote for him as an Indy.

Deez Nuts's strongest demographic groups are blacks (17% in the 3-way matchup) and voters age 30-45 (15% in the 3-way matchup).

The gender gap is also narrower for him. Guess women don't dislike him that much.
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Beezer
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« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2015, 03:59:53 am »

What is Deez Nuts' position on the Iran deal?
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