13 Keys to Downing Street?

[Silent Hunter]

Based on the Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell book, I'm looking to see if there are 13 'keys' that can be used to explain British election results and would appreciate some help.

Firstly, are any of the keys arguably irrelevant in the UK?

[Phony Moderate]

Let's go through Lichtman/DeCell's keys.



Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S.
House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Doesn't really apply to the UK, though local elections, by-elections and European elections may or may not be indicators.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Doesn't apply unless you count the Prime Minister being challenged for the leadership during a parliament.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Doesn't apply, though it could do next time if Cameron decides to stay on as PM during the campaign and let a new leader fight it.

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Third parties have been a factor for decades.

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

This could work.
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

As could this.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Definitely this.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

This too.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Yes.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Ditto.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Yep.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Well yeah, but no PM since Churchill has really been a 'national hero' and only two or three have been charismatic as such.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Again, few charismatic LOTOs.

[Blair]

The party mandate was one labour should have looked at (I completely ignored it because muh turnout), for example losing the mayorship race in 2012, getting crushed in Scotland in 2012 losing the 2014 euro elections, almost losing a safe northern seat to UKIP despite virtually no media attention and average local elections showed that labour should have been doing more in the coasting years of 2012-2013

[You kip if you want to...]

The party mandate was one labour should have looked at (I completely ignored it because muh turnout), for example losing the mayorship race in 2012, getting crushed in Scotland in 2012 losing the 2014 euro elections, almost losing a safe northern seat to UKIP despite virtually no media attention and average local elections showed that labour should have been doing more in the coasting years of 2012-2013

The only good set of locals for Labour was in 2012, right after the omnishambles budget.

Although every year, the collapse of the LibDems was the story and this disguised our own huge problems.

[Blair]

The party mandate was one labour should have looked at (I completely ignored it because muh turnout), for example losing the mayorship race in 2012, getting crushed in Scotland in 2012 losing the 2014 euro elections, almost losing a safe northern seat to UKIP despite virtually no media attention and average local elections showed that labour should have been doing more in the coasting years of 2012-2013

The only good set of locals for Labour was in 2012, right after the omnishambles budget.

Although every year, the collapse of the LibDems was the story and this disguised our own huge problems.

Sad thing is the next year will be the party and the media playing  'what to do about Jeremy' rather than actually focusing on how Labour are facing massive problems

[Phony Moderate]

Still not entirely convinced that he'll win; this has a Cleggmania/Scottish Yes campaign feel to it.