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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble  (Read 7367 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: August 20, 2015, 05:46:43 am »

Florida

Bush: 49%
Clinton: 38%

Rubio: 51%
Clinton: 39%

Trump: 43%
Clinton: 41%

Bush: 51%
Biden: 38%

Rubio: 48%
Biden: 42%

Biden: 45%
Trump: 42%

Bush: 54%
Sanders: 35%

Rubio: 52%
Sanders: 36%

Trump: 45%
Sanders: 41%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 36%
Trump: 19%

Ohio

Clinton: 41%
Bush: 39%

Rubio: 42%
Clinton: 40%

Clinton: 43%
Trump: 38%

Biden: 42%
Bush: 39%

Biden: 42%
Rubio: 41%

Biden: 48%
Trump: 38%

Bush: 42%
Sanders: 36%

Rubio: 42%
Sanders: 34%

Sanders: 42%
Trump: 40%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 27%
Trump: 23%

Pennsylvania

Bush: 43%
Clinton: 40%

Rubio: 47%
Clinton: 40%

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 40%

Bush: 43%
Biden: 42%

Rubio: 44%
Biden: 41%

Biden: 48%
Trump: 40%

Bush: 44%
Sanders: 36%

Rubio: 45%
Sanders: 33%

Sanders: 44%
Trump: 41%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 29%
Trump: 24%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271
« Last Edit: August 20, 2015, 05:57:24 am by TNvolunteer »Logged
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2015, 06:09:08 am »

Would you say that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy?

Florida
yes 32%
no 64%

Ohio
yes 34%
no 60%

Pennsylvania
yes 32%
no 63%
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Simfan34
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2015, 06:09:37 am »

These are nonsense polls.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2015, 06:31:16 am »

These are nonsense polls.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2015, 06:32:37 am »

Quinnipiac showed Clinton struggling even when she was soaring everywhere else. So these results aren't really surprising.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2015, 06:38:50 am »

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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2015, 06:45:14 am »


Sauce? Or do you just not like the results?
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2015, 06:47:02 am »

Img
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2015, 06:48:10 am »

Friendly reminder to Democrats: Quinnipiac never showed Hillary weak in Florida.
Their numbers from June:

FL:

Hillary/Rubio: 47/44
Hillary/Bush: 46/42
Hillary/Christie: 46/35
Hillary/Paul: 46/39
Hillary/Huckabee: 49/38
Hillary/Walker: 48/38
Hillary/Cruz: 48/37
Hilllary/Kasich: 48/35
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2015, 06:50:44 am »

Probably closer to this:.

PA

Clinton 41
JEB 39

OH
JEB 43
CLINTON 41

FL
JEB 43
CLINTON 39

Clinton will win Pa v OH/FL her polls fell among working class whites
« Last Edit: August 20, 2015, 06:52:42 am by OC »Logged
Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2015, 06:55:03 am »

Yep, pigs have flown. OC has given a semi-reasonable analysis
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2015, 06:59:46 am »

Biden is doing better than Hillary in these polls.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2015, 07:24:01 am »

Its plausible the Republicans are leading in Pennsylvania.  Its not plausible that Pennsylvania is suddenly much more Republican than Ohio.
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olowakandi
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2015, 07:28:24 am »

Biden is from Scanton, Pa, it will be solid D when he gets in, I hope.
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madelka
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2015, 07:56:35 am »

Clinton can win without Florida. She can win without Ohio. She cannot win without Pennsylvania. If Rubio wins the Romney states + FL + OH + PA, he'll be the next president. Terrible numbers for her.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2015, 08:04:09 am »

Yep, pigs have flown. OC has given a semi-reasonable analysis

Solid analysis?? He just unskewed numbers by making up things in his head that seemed more likely to fit his narrative.

Biden is from Scanton, Pa, it will be solid D when he gets in, I hope.

Yes, Scranton - the large swath of influence the Democrats struggle to bring home. That will massively affect the outcome.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2015, 08:53:03 am »

Even if the Ohio or Pennsylvania #s here are totally wrong, and you assume that Clinton is really leading in one of them in a hypothetical matchup with Rubio, he doesn't need both.  The latest polls have him ahead of Clinton in Colorado and Virginia, and narrowly ahead in North Carolina.  So with Florida plus one of either OH or PA, he breaks 270 electoral votes.

But that is of course in a hypothetical fantasy world in which he faces off against her today.  The general election isn't being held today, and Rubio is a long way off from being the Republican nominee.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2015, 09:03:02 am »

Even if the Ohio or Pennsylvania #s here are totally wrong, and you assume that Clinton is really leading in one of them in a hypothetical matchup with Rubio, he doesn't need both.  The latest polls have him ahead of Clinton in Colorado and Virginia, and narrowly ahead in North Carolina.  So with Florida plus one of either OH or PA, he breaks 270 electoral votes.

But that is of course in a hypothetical fantasy world in which he faces off against her today.  The general election isn't being held today, and Rubio is a long way off from being the Republican nominee.

Just one QU poll showed him ahead in VA. I doubt that he's leading there.

Rubio vs Clinton according to the RCP average:



Rubio: 288 EV
Clinton: 250 EV
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yeah_93
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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2015, 09:07:31 am »

Well I like these polls! Hillary doesn't seem that inevitable by the looks of them.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2015, 09:31:44 am »

These are very hard to believe. They should certainly add fuel to the "Run Biden Run" fire though.
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RFayette
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2015, 09:40:13 am »

These are very hard to believe. They should certainly add fuel to the "Run Biden Run" fire though.

True.  I have a reflexive habit of not taking polls showing Clinton down very seriously, but maybe I should change that.
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King
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« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2015, 10:12:08 am »

Wow, another Quinnipiac poll contradicting everyone else.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2015, 10:41:34 am »

Hillary is only trailing candidates who are not currently doing well in Republican primary polling, so any excitement is pretty much moot.
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mds32
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« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2015, 10:46:37 am »

Everything is hard to believe for some reason yet both PPP and Quinnipaic show Clinton down in Pennsylvania and not doing well in other states.
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mds32
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« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2015, 11:11:22 am »

The only numbers that could be a stretch would be the Florida numbers for certain.
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