Morning Consult national poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 1-11 points
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Author Topic: Morning Consult national poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 1-11 points  (Read 1637 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: August 31, 2015, 10:07:34 PM »
Morning Consult national poll, conducted Aug. 28-30:

pdf link

Clinton 43%
Bush 41%

Clinton 44%
Paul 39%

Clinton 46%
Walker 35%

Clinton 45%
Rubio 39%

Clinton 43%
Trump 42%
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2015, 10:13:18 PM »
like literally Donald Trump is the candidate that polls the best against Hillary. like what the hell.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2015, 10:17:33 PM »
If you look at the crosstabs, one thing that Trump does better in the GE matchups than any of the other Republicans is attract the votes of men.  Clinton beats Trump among women by 12 points, but Trump wins among men by 11 points.  No other Republican does nearly so well among men.  Marco Rubio, for example, only wins men by 3 points.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM »
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2015, 11:55:34 PM »
Donald Trump is the strongest Republican candidate because he will get the largest percentage of the white vote and in particular white men.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2015, 12:15:04 AM »
#TrumpMostElectable
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2015, 12:48:35 AM »
The Jeb v CLINTON numbers are realistic not Trump. Clinton will beat Trump by 5 pts
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2015, 01:01:52 AM »
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2015, 03:25:55 AM »
Quote from: TNvolunteer on August 31, 2015, 10:38:07 PM
Quote from: HillOfANight on August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Hillary ties Walker among Whites. Does that seem realistic?

Considering what an embarrassment Walker's campaign has been thus far, yes.
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Zanas
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2015, 04:28:15 AM »
They should really have tested Carson, who's the flavor of the moment.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2015, 06:07:31 AM »
Quote from: OC on September 01, 2015, 12:48:35 AM
The Jeb v CLINTON numbers are realistic not Trump. Clinton will beat Trump by 5 pts

You can't just pick and choose numbers to believe from the same poll. Trump is loads more electable than Jeb. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised Jeb outdoes Rubio, but Rubio advantage over Jeb is with the EC.

Quote from: HillOfANight on August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Why not?  I'm surprised it's that low against someone like Hillary. Obama and Trump are both massively charismatic and speak the truth of a beautiful vision for American greatness
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2015, 07:06:29 AM »
Note that Trump is actually very unpopular, with a -10 favorability.  Its just that with the email scandal, Clinton is unpopular too (at -8 favorability).  I think Trump is in a better position to take advantage of Clinton's weakness in this area because of his whole 'populist outsider' image.  As opposed to say, Bush, who persuadable voters see as no better than Clinton.

So my theory is that if the Clinton scandal clears up (which it looks like it might), or if Trump faces someone other than Hillary, he'll start doing disproportionately worse compared to other GOP candidates.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2015, 07:40:57 AM »
Quote from: TNvolunteer on August 31, 2015, 10:38:07 PM
Quote from: HillOfANight on August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Hillary ties Walker among Whites. Does that seem realistic?

Why not? He's been running as the anti working class white.
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mvd10
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2015, 08:51:57 AM »
Why would Donald Trump be proud of trailing Hilly? He is a winner after all Wink
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Penelope
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« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2015, 11:32:10 AM »
Quote from: HillOfANight on August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Trump wins the brogressive vote against Hillary Clinton, which shouldn't be that surprising.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2015, 08:47:59 AM »
Quote from: SMilo on September 01, 2015, 06:07:31 AM
Quote from: OC on September 01, 2015, 12:48:35 AM
The Jeb v CLINTON numbers are realistic not Trump. Clinton will beat Trump by 5 pts

You can't just pick and choose numbers to believe from the same poll. Trump is loads more electable than Jeb. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised Jeb outdoes Rubio, but Rubio advantage over Jeb is with the EC.

Quote from: HillOfANight on August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Why not?  I'm surprised it's that low against someone like Hillary. Obama and Trump are both massively charismatic and speak the truth of a beautiful vision for American greatness

Trump receives 30 percent of support among whites
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2015, 09:09:09 AM »
Quote from: OC on September 02, 2015, 08:47:59 AM
Quote from: SMilo on September 01, 2015, 06:07:31 AM
Quote from: OC on September 01, 2015, 12:48:35 AM
The Jeb v CLINTON numbers are realistic not Trump. Clinton will beat Trump by 5 pts

You can't just pick and choose numbers to believe from the same poll. Trump is loads more electable than Jeb. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised Jeb outdoes Rubio, but Rubio advantage over Jeb is with the EC.

Quote from: HillOfANight on August 31, 2015, 10:33:56 PM
Trump gets 16% of Obama voters. Doesn't seem realistic?

Why not?  I'm surprised it's that low against someone like Hillary. Obama and Trump are both massively charismatic and speak the truth of a beautiful vision for American greatness

Trump receives 30 percent of support among whites

In what context? Page 211 shows Hillary with 37% white, Donald with 47%.
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