FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble
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  FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble  (Read 9280 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #25 on: August 20, 2015, 02:50:10 PM »

Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.

I thought it was pretty much proven she didn't do anything wrong in this "scandal."
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: August 20, 2015, 02:53:30 PM »

Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.

I thought it was pretty much proven she didn't do anything wrong in this "scandal."

Not on FoX "News". I'm surprised that the hidden e-mails aren't about her participation in a witches' coven in which the witches cast aborted fetuses into a cauldron -- at least in the universe of FoX "News".
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DemPGH
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« Reply #27 on: August 20, 2015, 03:40:14 PM »

She will not lose PA to Jeb Bush or any of these other characters. SW PA has trended with WV as it is exactly the same culturally and so forth, but that's not enough to flip the state or even make it a toss-up. The eastern part of the state is growing, the western part of the state is in decline, and the areas to the east are not going to pick Jeb or whoever over her. It's to her what AZ is to the GOP.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2015, 03:42:24 PM »

This is largely her own doing, because she keeps ignoring questions about the server scandal.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: August 20, 2015, 03:55:50 PM »

This is largely her own doing, because she keeps ignoring questions about the server scandal.

No. If you are explaining you are losing.

Leave it up to the people who can investigate it properly.

...If we believe Quinnipiac, then the Republican  steamroller of 2016 is preparing to crush American liberalism once and for all and establish the Christian and Corporate State.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2015, 04:25:58 PM »

This is largely her own doing, because she keeps ignoring questions about the server scandal.

No. If you are explaining you are losing.

Leave it up to the people who can investigate it properly.

...If we believe Quinnipiac, then the Republican  steamroller of 2016 is preparing to crush American liberalism once and for all and establish the Christian and Corporate State.

No, just not a landslide election, as everyone thought it would, a duplicate 2012 map. A 270 map or 272 that Nate Silver always said would be.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2015, 10:30:48 AM »

These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.
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Bureaucat
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« Reply #32 on: August 22, 2015, 11:59:47 AM »

Is Quinnipiac the new Gravis?
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Torie
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« Reply #33 on: August 22, 2015, 05:00:07 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2015, 05:02:57 PM by Torie »

These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.

That word in bold is why many folks, dare I use the word, find your little analyses annoying. Btw, in my universe Florida is about even in PVI, so assuming you think PVI has some use at all, what that means is that you're saying the Pubs might as well not bother contesting the Presidency anymore. Resistance is futile. In fact, all the Pubs should register as Dems, so that way, odds are a moderate Dem will be POTUS. That is sort of the way NY is going. Registering Pub is an act of "disenfrancisement" basically, unless you have a patronage job in a Pub controlled jurisdiction, where being of the party in power is a condition of employment.

Oh, gerrymandering might be worth about 15 seats net for the Pubs, but I digress.  Unless you mean gerrymandering in favor of the Dems is the only kind of map that is not gerrymandering, because you need to gerrymander in favor of the Dems, to correct for the geographic packing of Dems in the inner portions of large metro areas.

Sigh.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: August 22, 2015, 09:00:57 PM »

These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.

That word in bold is why many folks, dare I use the word, find your little analyses annoying. Btw, in my universe Florida is about even in PVI, so assuming you think PVI has some use at all, what that means is that you're saying the Pubs might as well not bother contesting the Presidency anymore. Resistance is futile. In fact, all the Pubs should register as Dems, so that way, odds are a moderate Dem will be POTUS. That is sort of the way NY is going. Registering Pub is an act of "disenfrancisement" basically, unless you have a patronage job in a Pub controlled jurisdiction, where being of the party in power is a condition of employment.

Oh, gerrymandering might be worth about 15 seats net for the Pubs, but I digress.  Unless you mean gerrymandering in favor of the Dems is the only kind of map that is not gerrymandering, because you need to gerrymander in favor of the Dems, to correct for the geographic packing of Dems in the inner portions of large metro areas.

Sigh.

My guess of statewide PVI in those three states:

FL R+2
OH R+1
PA  D+3


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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #35 on: August 23, 2015, 08:08:51 AM »

Dems arent losing Pa. In a PVI of  D 3
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15 Down, 35 To Go
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« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2015, 08:40:11 AM »

Dems arent losing Pa. In a PVI of  D 3

PA's PVI is D+1 according to Cook.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2015, 08:44:47 AM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #38 on: August 23, 2015, 11:46:06 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2015, 11:47:55 AM by pbrower2a »

Cook PVI, by state



90% saturation for D+15 or R+15 or greater
70% saturation for 12 to 14, inclusively  
50% saturation for 10 or 11, inclusively
40% saturation for 6 to 9, inclusively
30% saturation for 3 to 5, inclusively
20% saturation for 1 or 2, inclusively  
white -- zero PVI
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muon2
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« Reply #39 on: August 23, 2015, 12:24:17 PM »

Cook PVI, by state



90% saturation for D+15 or R+15 or greater
70% saturation for 12 to 14, inclusively  
50% saturation for 10 or 11, inclusively
40% saturation for 6 to 9, inclusively
30% saturation for 3 to 5, inclusively
20% saturation for 1 or 2, inclusively  
white -- zero PVI

That looks like a pretty swingy map, with nothing ensured for either side. In a tie election for the PV one would expect 272D, 253R and VA(13) up for grabs. A two point swing either way would shift the map from D332-206 to R332-206. Other than a slight bias for Dems in a perfectly even election, any small swing in PV will easily give the WH to either party.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2015, 01:17:52 PM »

These PVIs makes since in a typical election year. But Biden or Trump electablity is different. Biden obviously will do better in Va and OH, while Clinton will only reinforce the 272 map.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2015, 01:21:14 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2015, 01:23:15 PM by OC »

These PVIs makes since in a typical election year. But Biden or Trump electablity is different. Biden obviously will do better in Va and OH, while Clinton will only reinforce the 272 map.

No

Yes she will she have done typically well in CO, NV  & Pa in PPP. QUhas a GOP bias in Pa, CO.

But who cares, if Trump is nominated, he will 2:1 lose Latino vote solidifying 272 anyways
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muon2
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« Reply #42 on: August 23, 2015, 06:38:41 PM »

The electoral college vote actually correlates well to the popular vote. This is a graph I posted in 2009 from the 20 most recent presidential contests through 2008. It compares the Pub EVs to the fractional difference in PV between the Pub and the Dem (percent divided by 100). If there is more than two percent difference between the candidates the debate about swing states probably won't matter much.

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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #43 on: August 23, 2015, 07:01:37 PM »

Biden is from Scanton, Pa, it will be solid D when he gets in, I hope.

It will make zero difference
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Craigo
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« Reply #44 on: August 26, 2015, 01:24:36 AM »

She will not lose PA to Jeb Bush or any of these other characters. SW PA has trended with WV as it is exactly the same culturally and so forth, but that's not enough to flip the state or even make it a toss-up. The eastern part of the state is growing, the western part of the state is in decline, and the areas to the east are not going to pick Jeb or whoever over her. It's to her what AZ is to the GOP.

I looked at the PA sample, and...yeesh. 86% white, huh? Maybe in 1992.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #45 on: August 27, 2015, 04:56:22 PM »

Its plausible the Republicans are leading in Pennsylvania.  Its not plausible that Pennsylvania is suddenly much more Republican than Ohio.

Well Toomey is well ahead of Sestak and Portman is tied at best with Strickland. Reverse coatails?

The Dem party in PA is in big trouble. They have big corruption problems. Could be a backlash
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #46 on: August 29, 2015, 06:16:17 PM »

Its plausible the Republicans are leading in Pennsylvania.  Its not plausible that Pennsylvania is suddenly much more Republican than Ohio.

Well Toomey is well ahead of Sestak and Portman is tied at best with Strickland. Reverse coatails?

The Dem party in PA is in big trouble. They have big corruption problems. Could be a backlash

The GOP in TX has big corruption problems; will there be a backlash there?
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2015, 01:15:21 PM »

Its plausible the Republicans are leading in Pennsylvania.  Its not plausible that Pennsylvania is suddenly much more Republican than Ohio.

Well Toomey is well ahead of Sestak and Portman is tied at best with Strickland. Reverse coatails?

The Dem party in PA is in big trouble. They have big corruption problems. Could be a backlash

The GOP in TX has big corruption problems; will there be a backlash there?

Dems in IL have big(ger) corruption problems than the IL GOP. Are they also done?

New Jersey?
New York?
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2015, 01:31:42 PM »

Loving the electable candidate! Losing PA (A State that has gone Democratic since '88)  to all new-comers! (Except for Trump of course)

TBF, the polling here seems a bit off, I can't really see a Republican pulling 47-40 over Clinton... But you never know.
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