FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton in big trouble

[pbrower2a]

These are nonsense polls.

Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.  These polls say how she is seen in late August 2015. FoX News is making every possible mention of the e-mails.

If nothing is shown to be wrong and the public has no perception of a cover-up, or that people have forgotten the issue, then these polls become irrelevant.  Not wrong -- just irrelevant.

I am in no position to predict how the matter will be resolved. The only prediction that I can make is that by November 2016 people will have more pressing concerns, like foreign policy and the economy.

[pbrower2a]

Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.

I thought it was pretty much proven she didn't do anything wrong in this "scandal."

Not on FoX "News". I'm surprised that the hidden e-mails aren't about her participation in a witches' coven in which the witches cast aborted fetuses into a cauldron -- at least in the universe of FoX "News".

[pbrower2a]

This is largely her own doing, because she keeps ignoring questions about the server scandal.

No. If you are explaining you are losing.

Leave it up to the people who can investigate it properly.

...If we believe Quinnipiac, then the Republican  steamroller of 2016 is preparing to crush American liberalism once and for all and establish the Christian and Corporate State.

[pbrower2a]

These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.

[pbrower2a]

These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.

That word in bold is why many folks, dare I use the word, find your little analyses annoying. Btw, in my universe Florida is about even in PVI, so assuming you think PVI has some use at all, what that means is that you're saying the Pubs might as well not bother contesting the Presidency anymore. Resistance is futile. In fact, all the Pubs should register as Dems, so that way, odds are a moderate Dem will be POTUS. That is sort of the way NY is going. Registering Pub is an act of "disenfrancisement" basically, unless you have a patronage job in a Pub controlled jurisdiction, where being of the party in power is a condition of employment.

Oh, gerrymandering might be worth about 15 seats net for the Pubs, but I digress.  Unless you mean gerrymandering in favor of the Dems is the only kind of map that is not gerrymandering, because you need to gerrymander in favor of the Dems, to correct for the geographic packing of Dems in the inner portions of large metro areas.

Sigh.

My guess of statewide PVI in those three states:

FL R+2
OH R+1
PA  D+3

[pbrower2a]

Cook PVI, by state

90% saturation for D+15 or R+15 or greater
70% saturation for 12 to 14, inclusively  
50% saturation for 10 or 11, inclusively
40% saturation for 6 to 9, inclusively
30% saturation for 3 to 5, inclusively
20% saturation for 1 or 2, inclusively  
white -- zero PVI