MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails! (user search)
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  MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails! (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails!  (Read 6466 times)
Torie
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Atlas Legend
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Posts: 46,076
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: August 21, 2015, 02:23:25 PM »
« edited: August 21, 2015, 02:25:28 PM by Torie »

Whatever the "junkiness" of the polling outfit, how does one dismiss out of hand that little datum that Rubio's lead is about 8 points ahead of Donald and Jeb against Hillary, and that he is trashing Hillary by 9 points with about a 4% Dem PVI? Just asking.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,076
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2015, 03:33:41 PM »

According to this poll:
- Clinton leads ??-12-?? with Democrats;
- Rubio leads 87-4-9 with Republicans;
- Rubio leads 48-27-25 with Independents.

It's hard to believe that Clinton is winning only 27% of Independents. In 2012, Obama won 48% of Independents. Romney won 49% of Indepedents, now Rubio is winning 48%.
In 2012, Romney won 4% of Democrats. Now, Rubio is winning 12%. It's the triple.


Oh, one possibility is that a small chunk of Dems and Dem leaning independents moved into the undecided column vis a vis someone that is not facially unacceptable to them at the moment, pending a resolution of Hillary's problems, which problems bother them. My guess is that over time, Hillary's problems will mitigate in intensity as time goes by, and she will get some of them back, or her problems will worsen, and she will drop out. In other words, the current situation is not a stable one, but rather in a state of dis-equalibrium, and therefore new little political molecules will form to resolve that.
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