Danish Referendum on converting EU justice opt-out to opt-in, 3 December 2015

[Diouf]

The Danish PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced yesterday that Denmark will hold a referendum on changing its EU opt-out on justice affairs into an opt-in on 3 December 2015.

Currently, Denmark has had an opt-out from justice affairs since 1993. This means that the Danish government is not allowed to join any supranational cooperation in the EU within this area. So right now, the Danish government has to apply to and negotiate with the Commission for a so-called "parallel deal" with the EU if it wants to join any cooperation. Denmark managed to get a parallel deal on e.g. the Dublin Regulation (sending back refugees to the countries of entry) and Eurodac (Finger print databases), but didn't manage to get one on e.g. the Brussels II regulation on family law. Now that more and more JHA regulations are moving into the supranational sphere after the Lisbon Treaty, Denmark will be thrown out of these regulations and will have to apply for parallel deals. For example on the Europol cooperation, which is the main selling point of the yes-parties; "We don't want to be thrown out of Europol".
If the result is a yes, Denmark's opt-out is changed into an opt-in, which means that the Danish government can choose which of the EU regulations it wants to participate in. The yes-parties have made an agreement that Denmark will not opt-in to any migration and refugee-related laws.

The yes-parties are the Liberals, the Social Democrats, the Social Liberals, the SPP, and the Conservative. They have made an agreement, that all of the five parties have to accept it each time Denmark opts-in to an EU regulation. They have already agreed on 22 EU regulations, they would like to join. This agreement has been criticized for basically giving veto statuses to all of the three small EU-positive parties.
The Alternative is also in favour of a yes at the referendum, but they are not a part of the yes-agreement, because they want Denmark to join the EU cooperation on migration and refugees and do not feel that there is enough transparency in the yes-agreement.

The DPP, the Liberal Alliance and the Red-Green Alliance will be campaigning for a no. The Red-Green Alliance will probably mainly talk about some very detailed murky judicial aspects, like in the EU Patent Referendum of 2014. The Liberal Alliance and especially the DPP will say that Denmark does not have to join, we can just get the parallel deals, and that there should not be very much EU cooperation on these issues. DPP is also certain to bang about immigration, and will repeatedly claim that the five yes-parties cannot be trusted, and that Denmark will join common migration and refugee policies.

[Diouf]

An early poll:



So, currently a big advantage for the yes-side. 58% in favour, 22 % opposed, 20% don't know. Like in most Danish EU-referenda, the no-side will of course grow in strength until election day. In the EU patent referendum in 2014, the no-side received 37.53%, and I wouldn't think that it would be any lower this time.
With regards to the different parties, there is the question of statistical validity since some of the parties are quite small. But I would think that parties and voters will converge somewhat when the debates start. Right now a no-party like the Liberal Alliance has 70% in favour, while a yes-party like the Alternative only has 49 % in favour.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Surprised that so many DanishFolk are supporting YES, if I'm honest.

[politicus]

Surprised that so many DanishFolk are supporting YES, if I'm honest.

Why? Yes gives us all the advantages we have and increased flexibility to join whatever might be beneficial.

[DavidB.]

Why? Yes gives us all the advantages we have and increased flexibility to join whatever might be beneficial.

Yeah, as a strong eurosceptic, the opt-in seems rather attractive even to me. I honestly wouldn't immediately know what to vote in this referendum.

Still, I'd be afraid that someday, a left-wing government will chose to "opt-in" in joint programs that might not be beneficial to Denmark, just for the sake of the European ideal. If all yes-parties agree (and I trust V's and C's "euroscepticism" as much as I trust the VVD's and the CDA's sudden "euroscepticism" - not at all), they're good to go without any referendum.

[politicus]

Why? Yes gives us all the advantages we have and increased flexibility to join whatever might be beneficial.

Yeah, as a strong eurosceptic, the opt-in seems rather attractive even to me. I honestly wouldn't immediately know what to vote in this referendum.

Still, I'd be afraid that someday, a left-wing government will chose to "opt-in" in joint programs that might not be beneficial to Denmark, just for the sake of the European ideal. If all yes-parties agree (and I trust V's and C's "euroscepticism" as much as I trust the VVD's and the CDA's sudden "euroscepticism" - not at all), they're good to go without any referendum.

There is no Euroscepticism in Venstre - some are more or less enthusiastic about the EU, but no prominent members qualify as actual sceptics.

[DavidB.]

Why? Yes gives us all the advantages we have and increased flexibility to join whatever might be beneficial.

Yeah, as a strong eurosceptic, the opt-in seems rather attractive even to me. I honestly wouldn't immediately know what to vote in this referendum.

Still, I'd be afraid that someday, a left-wing government will chose to "opt-in" in joint programs that might not be beneficial to Denmark, just for the sake of the European ideal. If all yes-parties agree (and I trust V's and C's "euroscepticism" as much as I trust the VVD's and the CDA's sudden "euroscepticism" - not at all), they're good to go without any referendum.

There is no Euroscepticism in Venstre - some are more or less enthusiastic about the EU, but no prominent members qualify as actual sceptics.

I stand corrected on that, thanks. My main point still stands, though.

[politicus]

The Eurosceptic parties (Red Greens, LA and DPP) + the People's Movement against the EU have formed an alliance and agreed on setting aside their differences and presenting a common "No" platform.

[DavidB.]

The Eurosceptic parties (Red Greens, LA and DPP) + the People's Movement against the EU have formed an alliance and agreed on setting aside their differences and presenting a common "No" platform.

Wow. I'm amazed that even Enhedslisten considers incidental cooperation with DF acceptable.

[ingemann]

The Eurosceptic parties (Red Greens, LA and DPP) + the People's Movement against the EU have formed an alliance and agreed on setting aside their differences and presenting a common "No" platform.

Wow. I'm amazed that even Enhedslisten considers incidental cooperation with DF acceptable.

Well if they should choose a party not to cooperate with, I think LA would be the more obvious choice. But to your entire question, Danish politics right now don't have any untouchable parties, all parties can make deals with each others, and Red-Greens have made deal with both LA and DPP before. While I'm not a fan of the Red-Greens, they're a lot more practical and pragmatic than we sometimes gives them credit for, the fact alone that they could unite a bunch of far-left fractions  which hated each other show how pragmatic they are.

[politicus]

New poll show a No majority for the first time. A third of voters are still undecided:

Yes 31%
No 36%
Undecided 34%

(only got the rounded numbers)

[Diouf]

Postal voting has just started, and since I won't be in the country at the date of the vote, I was able to cast one of the first yes-votes.

[DavidB.]

Are there any new polls?

[Diouf]

Epinion for DR:

Yes 29 %
No 28 %
Don't know 39 %
Don't want to answer 3 %

The bookmaker Danske Spil

Yes 2.00
No 1.75

The Government has launched its election poster:
"Strengthen the Danish Police. Vote yes."

[Diouf]

While most of the other yes-parties are desperately trying to convince the voters that this referendum has nothing to do with refugee policies, and that Danish participation in common asylum policies will require another referendum on that specific point, the SPP today decided to torpedo that effort by claiming that this referendum is indeed about refugees. Their MEP Margrethe Auken has launched one of their posters with the text "Together to help the refugees. Your yes helps on the 3.December". She says that the only road to Danish participation in a common refugee policy goes through a yes in the referendum. She argues that because of the other yes-parties' insisistence on not including the refugee topic, pro-common refugee policy voters are thinking that they should vote no.
The other yes-parties are understandably mad as hell because the bigger the focus on common refugee policies, the bigger the chances for a no vote. It seems like the SPP has thrown the referendum under a bus in an attempt to lure back some of the immigration left-wingers, which they have lost to the Social Liberals, the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative in recent years.

[Diouf]

All the 23 polls so far, from the beginning of the year until now. Collected by Michael Hjøllund.

Blue dot= yes, red dot = no, yellow dot = don't know

[Diouf]

Today the official campaign starts which means that the parties can start putting up posters and the media will intensify their coverage with debates etc.
Here are some additional posters:

Common poster for the parties in the yes-deal and the European Movement. "Yes. The safe choice for Denmark".


The Red-Green Alliance's campaign: "For diversity/the rule of law/openness and democracy; keep the JHA opt-out".


Social Democrat campaign. Several posters with different topics. This one:"Help the police fight trafficking of women. Vote yes."


DPP: "More EU? NO THANKS. Keep the JHA opt-out".

[Diouf]

Voxmeter poll for Ritzau

Yes 33 %
No 30.5 %
Don't know 36.5 %

[Diouf]

Two new polls:

Voxmeter for Ritzau:
Yes 34,8 %
No 32,1 %
Don't know 33,1 %

Megafon for TV2:
Yes 39 %
No 38 %
Don't know 23 %

[Diouf]

New poll with significant no lead.

Norstat for Altinget:
Yes 34 %
No 41 %
Don't know 25 %

Norstat have showed no in the last few polls, so quite a difference compared to other polls which usually show very narrow yes leads. Quite a task for pollsters which have had to make some changes to make up for their clear underestimation of DPP at the last election, and have to gauge how high the turnout will be for this isolated referendum.

[Diouf]

Another poll with a lead for the no-side, and the first poll in a long time where break downs of party, age etc. are published.

Gallup for Berlingske
The colors indicate yes, no, blank, won't vote, can't vote and don't know.
The charts show the results for: Everybody, men, women, age Groups, parties, blocs, regions, don't knowers when pushed (everybody, men, women).
Finally, the last question is whether it would be an advantage for Denmark to participate in Europol: Agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, disagree, don't know


The party breakdowns fits the party's position for everybody, except SF. But with such small parties, the percentages are probably not as statistically valid. The party has lost quite a lot of their young, EU-friendly voters, but it still seems that the no-percentage for that party's voters is a bit too high. Perhaps the yes-side's continous talk about Europol and security has scared away some of them from the yes-side. The doubters lean slightly more towards yes, but as noted above, it will be really hard for the pollsters to hit the right turnout, both in terms of percentage and which Groups then show up.

We will see whether the remaining pollsters will also start to converge around a no.

[Diouf]

Megafon for TV2 now also shows a no. 40 % no, 35 % yes, 25 % don't know. Seems like it will be around that the polls will converge. A relatively comfortable no looks the most likely outcome now.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your updates, Diouf. Very much appreciated.

[Beezer]

Remarkable turnaround. So what's the reason behind the no surge? Just the refugee crisis?

[Diouf]

The final pollster Epinion for DR followed the other's path and turned towards no as well: Yes 32 %, no 36 %, don't know 25 %.

Remarkable turnaround. So what's the reason behind the no surge? Just the refugee crisis?

As I wrote with the first poll with the huge yes lead, it was never going to be that big of a win. At the tíme, I probably thought that it could turn out like the Unified Patent Court referendum, where it would be a very technical discussion and end up with a relatively clear win because the unions, businesses, NGOs etc would actively support the yes-side. However, the refugee crisis has obviously not exactly increased the EU's popularity. Also it seems now that most people think that yes and no will lead to basically the same results, i.e. membership of Europol and other cross-border crime fighting directives, because we will get parallel deals or other solutions. Therefore this is probably largely viewed as a "free" vote on the current attitude towards the EU.