Danish Referendum on converting EU justice opt-out to opt-in, 3 December 2015

[DavidB.]

Why? Yes gives us all the advantages we have and increased flexibility to join whatever might be beneficial.

Yeah, as a strong eurosceptic, the opt-in seems rather attractive even to me. I honestly wouldn't immediately know what to vote in this referendum.

Still, I'd be afraid that someday, a left-wing government will chose to "opt-in" in joint programs that might not be beneficial to Denmark, just for the sake of the European ideal. If all yes-parties agree (and I trust V's and C's "euroscepticism" as much as I trust the VVD's and the CDA's sudden "euroscepticism" - not at all), they're good to go without any referendum.

[DavidB.]

Why? Yes gives us all the advantages we have and increased flexibility to join whatever might be beneficial.

Yeah, as a strong eurosceptic, the opt-in seems rather attractive even to me. I honestly wouldn't immediately know what to vote in this referendum.

Still, I'd be afraid that someday, a left-wing government will chose to "opt-in" in joint programs that might not be beneficial to Denmark, just for the sake of the European ideal. If all yes-parties agree (and I trust V's and C's "euroscepticism" as much as I trust the VVD's and the CDA's sudden "euroscepticism" - not at all), they're good to go without any referendum.

There is no Euroscepticism in Venstre - some are more or less enthusiastic about the EU, but no prominent members qualify as actual sceptics.

I stand corrected on that, thanks. My main point still stands, though.

[DavidB.]

The Eurosceptic parties (Red Greens, LA and DPP) + the People's Movement against the EU have formed an alliance and agreed on setting aside their differences and presenting a common "No" platform.

Wow. I'm amazed that even Enhedslisten considers incidental cooperation with DF acceptable.

[DavidB.]

Are there any new polls?

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your updates, Diouf. Very much appreciated.

[DavidB.]

How much of a role does SF's tactic (vote yes if you're humane to refugees) seem to play?

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your answer, Diouf

So this is today. When do the polls close?

[DavidB.]

Do the municipalities have very much of a different "culture"? The current Dutch government is pushing for many municipalities to merge, but this is especially problematic and unpopular if the merger is deemed "unnatural", for instance if there are large socio-economic disparities between municipalities and if two rural municipalities are oriented toward different cities.

How large are municipalities in Denmark generally, in terms of inhabitants?

[DavidB.]

That would also be my guess, especially given the demographics of the people leaning no: in Western Europe, high turnout often helps the anti-establishment option.

However, my gut feeling says it could even become a yes, but sometimes it's better not to listen to one's gut feeling

[DavidB.]

Switching on the livestream.

[DavidB.]

46.7% Yes
53.3% No

Exit poll DR

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I can't see this becoming a "yes" anymore. Feeling happy for you guys Although I know you voted yes.

[DavidB.]

Have prominent politicians already replied?

[DavidB.]

End result:
No - 53,1%
Yes - 46,9%

Exit polls were remarkably accurate.

Election map here.

[DavidB.]

Voting behavior in the referendum by party preference. Conducted by Epinion. Amazed by the high percentage of Alternative voters that voted against. Soc Dems, SF and LA also really split.

These results show that euroskepticism in Denmark is very prevalent on the left and less so on the right; very remarkable. The "bourgeois" right and RV (which is of course also essentially bourgeois even if it is part of the red bloc) remain most supportive of European integration. On the left some elites might support it, but voters remain skeptical. No real left-wing party had more than 53% of its voters vote "yes".

[DavidB.]

The parties will evaluate the deal yearly, and some parties, especially the Social Liberals, have said that they want and expect a second referendum soon. One reason is that the Europol database will soon be searchable in portable devices carried by the police officers, but Denmark will not be able to use those due to the lack of direct access to the database. Also the lack of voting rights on Europol decisions means that Denmark, who is among the countries who use Europol the most, will not be able to influence decisions made about its structure and function.

So this would be a referendum on the very same question? Basically another example of "don't take no for an answer"? That would really be very unfortunate imo. Which parties would support such a second referendum, and is it likely to take place?

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your clarification, Diouf.