Danish Referendum on converting EU justice opt-out to opt-in, 3 December 2015

[Diouf]

The Danish PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced yesterday that Denmark will hold a referendum on changing its EU opt-out on justice affairs into an opt-in on 3 December 2015.

Currently, Denmark has had an opt-out from justice affairs since 1993. This means that the Danish government is not allowed to join any supranational cooperation in the EU within this area. So right now, the Danish government has to apply to and negotiate with the Commission for a so-called "parallel deal" with the EU if it wants to join any cooperation. Denmark managed to get a parallel deal on e.g. the Dublin Regulation (sending back refugees to the countries of entry) and Eurodac (Finger print databases), but didn't manage to get one on e.g. the Brussels II regulation on family law. Now that more and more JHA regulations are moving into the supranational sphere after the Lisbon Treaty, Denmark will be thrown out of these regulations and will have to apply for parallel deals. For example on the Europol cooperation, which is the main selling point of the yes-parties; "We don't want to be thrown out of Europol".
If the result is a yes, Denmark's opt-out is changed into an opt-in, which means that the Danish government can choose which of the EU regulations it wants to participate in. The yes-parties have made an agreement that Denmark will not opt-in to any migration and refugee-related laws.

The yes-parties are the Liberals, the Social Democrats, the Social Liberals, the SPP, and the Conservative. They have made an agreement, that all of the five parties have to accept it each time Denmark opts-in to an EU regulation. They have already agreed on 22 EU regulations, they would like to join. This agreement has been criticized for basically giving veto statuses to all of the three small EU-positive parties.
The Alternative is also in favour of a yes at the referendum, but they are not a part of the yes-agreement, because they want Denmark to join the EU cooperation on migration and refugees and do not feel that there is enough transparency in the yes-agreement.

The DPP, the Liberal Alliance and the Red-Green Alliance will be campaigning for a no. The Red-Green Alliance will probably mainly talk about some very detailed murky judicial aspects, like in the EU Patent Referendum of 2014. The Liberal Alliance and especially the DPP will say that Denmark does not have to join, we can just get the parallel deals, and that there should not be very much EU cooperation on these issues. DPP is also certain to bang about immigration, and will repeatedly claim that the five yes-parties cannot be trusted, and that Denmark will join common migration and refugee policies.

[Diouf]

An early poll:



So, currently a big advantage for the yes-side. 58% in favour, 22 % opposed, 20% don't know. Like in most Danish EU-referenda, the no-side will of course grow in strength until election day. In the EU patent referendum in 2014, the no-side received 37.53%, and I wouldn't think that it would be any lower this time.
With regards to the different parties, there is the question of statistical validity since some of the parties are quite small. But I would think that parties and voters will converge somewhat when the debates start. Right now a no-party like the Liberal Alliance has 70% in favour, while a yes-party like the Alternative only has 49 % in favour.

[Diouf]

Postal voting has just started, and since I won't be in the country at the date of the vote, I was able to cast one of the first yes-votes.

[Diouf]

Epinion for DR:

Yes 29 %
No 28 %
Don't know 39 %
Don't want to answer 3 %

The bookmaker Danske Spil

Yes 2.00
No 1.75

The Government has launched its election poster:
"Strengthen the Danish Police. Vote yes."

[Diouf]

While most of the other yes-parties are desperately trying to convince the voters that this referendum has nothing to do with refugee policies, and that Danish participation in common asylum policies will require another referendum on that specific point, the SPP today decided to torpedo that effort by claiming that this referendum is indeed about refugees. Their MEP Margrethe Auken has launched one of their posters with the text "Together to help the refugees. Your yes helps on the 3.December". She says that the only road to Danish participation in a common refugee policy goes through a yes in the referendum. She argues that because of the other yes-parties' insisistence on not including the refugee topic, pro-common refugee policy voters are thinking that they should vote no.
The other yes-parties are understandably mad as hell because the bigger the focus on common refugee policies, the bigger the chances for a no vote. It seems like the SPP has thrown the referendum under a bus in an attempt to lure back some of the immigration left-wingers, which they have lost to the Social Liberals, the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative in recent years.

[Diouf]

All the 23 polls so far, from the beginning of the year until now. Collected by Michael Hjøllund.

Blue dot= yes, red dot = no, yellow dot = don't know

[Diouf]

Today the official campaign starts which means that the parties can start putting up posters and the media will intensify their coverage with debates etc.
Here are some additional posters:

Common poster for the parties in the yes-deal and the European Movement. "Yes. The safe choice for Denmark".


The Red-Green Alliance's campaign: "For diversity/the rule of law/openness and democracy; keep the JHA opt-out".


Social Democrat campaign. Several posters with different topics. This one:"Help the police fight trafficking of women. Vote yes."


DPP: "More EU? NO THANKS. Keep the JHA opt-out".

[Diouf]

Voxmeter poll for Ritzau

Yes 33 %
No 30.5 %
Don't know 36.5 %

[Diouf]

Two new polls:

Voxmeter for Ritzau:
Yes 34,8 %
No 32,1 %
Don't know 33,1 %

Megafon for TV2:
Yes 39 %
No 38 %
Don't know 23 %

[Diouf]

New poll with significant no lead.

Norstat for Altinget:
Yes 34 %
No 41 %
Don't know 25 %

Norstat have showed no in the last few polls, so quite a difference compared to other polls which usually show very narrow yes leads. Quite a task for pollsters which have had to make some changes to make up for their clear underestimation of DPP at the last election, and have to gauge how high the turnout will be for this isolated referendum.

[Diouf]

Another poll with a lead for the no-side, and the first poll in a long time where break downs of party, age etc. are published.

Gallup for Berlingske
The colors indicate yes, no, blank, won't vote, can't vote and don't know.
The charts show the results for: Everybody, men, women, age Groups, parties, blocs, regions, don't knowers when pushed (everybody, men, women).
Finally, the last question is whether it would be an advantage for Denmark to participate in Europol: Agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, disagree, don't know


The party breakdowns fits the party's position for everybody, except SF. But with such small parties, the percentages are probably not as statistically valid. The party has lost quite a lot of their young, EU-friendly voters, but it still seems that the no-percentage for that party's voters is a bit too high. Perhaps the yes-side's continous talk about Europol and security has scared away some of them from the yes-side. The doubters lean slightly more towards yes, but as noted above, it will be really hard for the pollsters to hit the right turnout, both in terms of percentage and which Groups then show up.

We will see whether the remaining pollsters will also start to converge around a no.

[Diouf]

Megafon for TV2 now also shows a no. 40 % no, 35 % yes, 25 % don't know. Seems like it will be around that the polls will converge. A relatively comfortable no looks the most likely outcome now.

[Diouf]

The final pollster Epinion for DR followed the other's path and turned towards no as well: Yes 32 %, no 36 %, don't know 25 %.

Remarkable turnaround. So what's the reason behind the no surge? Just the refugee crisis?

As I wrote with the first poll with the huge yes lead, it was never going to be that big of a win. At the tíme, I probably thought that it could turn out like the Unified Patent Court referendum, where it would be a very technical discussion and end up with a relatively clear win because the unions, businesses, NGOs etc would actively support the yes-side. However, the refugee crisis has obviously not exactly increased the EU's popularity. Also it seems now that most people think that yes and no will lead to basically the same results, i.e. membership of Europol and other cross-border crime fighting directives, because we will get parallel deals or other solutions. Therefore this is probably largely viewed as a "free" vote on the current attitude towards the EU.

[Diouf]

How much of a role does SF's tactic (vote yes if you're humane to refugees) seem to play?

The refugee question is certainly playing a significant role. Megafon asked whether people believed that a yes would eventually lead to Denmark joining the common EU asylum and refugee policies. 54 % said yes, 13 % said no. The rest don't know. There are probably several reasons for this; the biggest seem to be that when the EU refugee quotas were discussed, PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen offered voluntarily to take 1000 refugees if a suitable agreement was reached. Now he has actually reneged on that offer again as he argues that "the refugees have distributed themselves up here". Nevertheless, that offer is often used as proving that even the Liberals would happily agree to join the EU's common refugee policies once they get the possibility. SF's refugee campaign has played a role in convincing people as well; their MEP Margrethe Auken has used it frequently. It was mentioned in their party's programme about the referendum on TV, but party leader Pia Olsen Dyhr was much less direct in using it. In the other polls, SF's voters does btw seem to support the party's yes stance quite clearly, opposite to what the Gallup poll suggested.

[Diouf]

The polls opened at 9.00 and close at 20.00. The exit polls will mostly come around 20.00, and then the results should start coming in relatively quick. I guess the final result will be ready in 1.5-2 hours, and then there will be a party leader debate/discussion.

At 16.00, 38.6 % has voted, so the turnout is going to be bigger than expected. The final turnout might be all the way up at around 70 %.

The best places to follow the vote are probably the two main TV channels (dr.dk & tv2.dk) and the big newspapers (jp.dk, b.dk & politiken.dk).

The official results will be published at: http://www.kmdvalg.dk/Main/?valgart=AV

[Diouf]

In two municipalities, there will be not only one but two ballots today. Struer and Holstebro municipalities are voting on whether to merge the two municipalities. Both mayors support the merger, but as can be seen in the above polls, there does not seem to be much appetite for it, especially in Struer which is the smallest of the two. They probably fear that they will be forgotten and their services centralized in a big municipality. A yes in both municipalities is needed for the merger to go through.

[Diouf]

Do the municipalities have very much of a different "culture"? The current Dutch government is pushing for many municipalities to merge, but this is especially problematic and unpopular if the merger is deemed "unnatural", for instance if there are large socio-economic disparities between municipalities and if two rural municipalities are oriented toward different cities.

How large are municipalities in Denmark generally, in terms of inhabitants?

In the 2007 municipial reform, the number of municipalities was reduced from 275 to 98. The median size of a municipality is now 45 000. There are a few special island municipalities with less than 15 000 inhabitants, but Struer is among the smallest of the standard ones with only 21.594 inhabitants whereas Holstebro is bigger than average with 57.526. I think this smalller town vs bigger town is the biggest reason why Struer says no. I don't think there are significant "cultural" differences; both municipalities are fairly rural and located far away from the big cities, but they are quite well-off. It is not like the poorer outskirts in Southern Zealand, Langeland, and Lolland-Falster.

[Diouf]

57.1% turnout at 18.00

[Diouf]

My guess would be that the unexpectedly high turnout will lead to an unexpectedly big win for the no-side, but we will see shortly. The polls have showed that the no-side has the biggest leads among youngsters and people with no or little education; those who would probably not have turned up if the turnout was down at 50-55 %,

[Diouf]

Exit Poll TV2 almost similar 47.2 % yes 52.8 % no

[Diouf]

Final result almost there for the opt-out to opt-in. 47 % yes, 53 % no.

Holstebro result: 54.8 % no 45.2 % yes
Struer result: 67.9 % no 32.1 % yes

[Diouf]

The yes areas seem to be areas with either a big proportion of highly educated and wealthy inhabitants or areas with many Liberal-loyalists. The areas in Northern Zealand (Gentofte, Rudersdal & Lyngby all with more than 60 % yes) and the big cities (Frederiksberg with both Falkoner and Slot, Indre By and Østerbro in Copenhagen, Aarhus East and South and Odense South) are examples of the former while Herning Nord and Ringkøbing are examples of the latter (Holstebro was also very close).

[Diouf]

The plan now is that the PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen will meet with all the other party leaders on Monday to agree on the approach towards parallel deals and the future steps in that regard. Then on Friday, he will meet Juncker and Tusk in Brussels to discuss how to go about with this.

[Diouf]

After the no in the referendum, the Danish government has negotiated with the European Commission about a deal that could somehow keep Denmark in Europol. A few days ago, the government announced a draft deal with the Commission and called negotiations with the other parties to seek support to pursue a final deal. The draft deal means that Denmark will be an observer without voting rights on the Europol board, it will still participate in information sharing of strategic analyses, it will be allowed to search in the Europol database but through a Danish-speaking intermediary in Europol. Denmark will not be allowed to take part in the Cybercrime Section nor in the work in the new European Counter Terrorism Centre.

Today the government announced that all parties supported the government's draft deal, and gave it a mandate to pursue a final deal. The DPP had been quite hesitant to support the agreement since the deal meant continued participation in Schengen, but in the end agreed to support the government as they were ensured that a parliamentary majority could still take Denmark out of Schengen, although it would scupper this deal. The parties will evaluate the deal yearly, and some parties, especially the Social Liberals, have said that they want and expect a second referendum soon. One reason is that the Europol database will soon be searchable in portable devices carried by the police officers, but Denmark will not be able to use those due to the lack of direct access to the database. Also the lack of voting rights on Europol decisions means that Denmark, who is among the countries who use Europol the most, will not be able to influence decisions made about its structure and function.

The government will now also try to get deals to participate in several of the other cooperations and regulations, which were rejected as a part of the referendum. First and foremost, this concerns Eurojust and Passenger Name Records.

[Diouf]

The parties will evaluate the deal yearly, and some parties, especially the Social Liberals, have said that they want and expect a second referendum soon. One reason is that the Europol database will soon be searchable in portable devices carried by the police officers, but Denmark will not be able to use those due to the lack of direct access to the database. Also the lack of voting rights on Europol decisions means that Denmark, who is among the countries who use Europol the most, will not be able to influence decisions made about its structure and function.

So this would be a referendum on the very same question? Basically another example of "don't take no for an answer"? That would really be very unfortunate imo. Which parties would support such a second referendum, and is it likely to take place?

No, it would most likely be one which includes full Europol-membership + participation in other regulations on crime-fighting, but without the part that allows Parliament to opt-in to new justice regulations without new referendums. All three parties who recommended a no primarily focused on this aspect of sovereignty, where they feared what parliament would sign Denmark up to in the future. They said that if the result became a no and Denmark could not get a satisfactory deal, then they would accept a new referendum without the sovereignty aspect and recommend a yes. A few weeks ago DPP withdrew that promise, because obviously the DPP would never go in to a referendum recommending a yes (see EU patent cooperation, which they supported until there was a referendum on it). The Liberal Alliance is in government now, so if the new referendum comes in this term, they will obviously go for yes. But even before entering government, they were sounding sympathetic to a new referendum and going for a yes. LA also made clear in the campaign, that they were not full-blown no, and often compared themselves to the Alternative whose slogan was "yes, but". LA was "no, but". The Red-Green Alliance is a bit harder to gauge, but they are not as dogmatic in their EU opposition as the DPP, and there is no new Eurosceptic party threatening them. They are very concerned about data protection, so they might go for a no if PNR is included. However, if the included regulations are more narrow (Europol and a few minor things), then I think they would not have a big problem in going for a yes.

If the technological advances in Europol happen as planned in the next years, then such a more narrow referendum is quite likely in a few years.